I’m so ready for basketball season to start, as I think this could be a special team. But I’m bored now with the Keels discussion. Changing the topic, I’m curious what others think the breakdown of minutes and points will be for the team this upcoming season.
This is my best guess (season averages, not beginning or end of year numbers):
Kihei: 35 minutes, 11 ppg
Sam: 32 minutes, 15 ppg
Jay: 29 minutes, 12 ppg
Tomas: 24 minutes, 8 ppg
Casey: 22 minutes, 4 ppg
Jabri: 14 minutes, 7 ppg
Justin: 14 minutes, 2 ppg
Kody: 10 minutes, 3 ppg
Reece: 10 minutes, 3 ppg
Francisco: 6 minutes, 2 ppg
Kadin: 4 minutes, 1 ppg
Carson: Redshirt
Last year’s team averaged 57 points a game. The 2019 team scored 72 per game. I don’t see this team scoring 70, but it is a much better offensive unit, so I’m going with 68 ppg as a team. What do you think?
-e
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Great job. A lot of math for me, but I think mins are high for Tomas, Kody and Reece. Low for Casey, Jabri and Kadin.
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Interesting to look at ppg and mpg broken out this way. In a vacuum I’m expecting much more from Casey this year. The points and minutes have to come from somewhere though.
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Last year minutes:
Tomas - 27
Casey - 22
Kody - 22
Coach Bennett is always loyal to his upperclassmen… I actually tried to find a way to increase Kody’s time on the floor - I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the biggest complaint of the UVA fan base: Kody’s vs. Jabri’s minutes.
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Really interesting breakdown. I can barely wrap my head around what the actual rotation will look like, and if CTB has taught me one thing, what we see in Nov/Dec does not mean we will see it in Feb/Mar.
The Kody Jabri debate could be a good one. Having only seen Kody in a D1 setting, I think of all the upperclassmen he is the one most likely to get his minutes picked by a new guy. That said, I’ve not seen Jabri play in college, so no clue how he responds.
Looking at it from a pure numbers perspective, I think Casey could be the key to a great year or a good year. If he is able to mature and can bump his avg up to 7 or 8 a game on those 22 mins. That would likely change the entire dynamic of the offense and create some matchup nightmares for opponents.
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11 guys won’t play regularly, so I think the rotation will be 8, at most 9 when the games are close.
What will be interesting is the 2-3 guys who end up not cracking the regular rotation. Shedrick plays in games we’re up big, but his minutes probably look like Jay’s his first & second years. I do think Caffaro will play as Jay’s backup, and Jay won’t play 30+ mins per game. How things shake out between JAR & Stattman will be interesting. I’m also curious about Morsell & Beekman, as Tony may want 2 ball-handlers on the floor together…I think Beekman plays alongside Clark quite a bit.
The one I have no idea how to project is McKoy. I could see him playing a Wilkins-type role…I could see him not playing much at all. No clue.
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McKoy is a total wildcard. I have no idea what to expect from him either.
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On JWillys show Sam Hauser spoke highly of McKoy (and Jabri) of guys that had impressed him so far in practice. I think McKoy and Casey both take the 2nd year bump we see so many guys in this program do
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I have to say this year’s roster is shaping up to be one of my favorites in terms of their potential and watching their development. It’s been a few years, since I’ve had so many questions, but also I’m eager to learn the answers.
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Feels like a lot of parallels to the 2016-17 team if Nichols hadn’t been dismissed. Upperclassmen leaders (London/Wilkins = Kihei/Jay), star transfer coming off a redshirt, exciting new first year class with tons of talent, and a stable of solid veterans that are more familiar with the system than the young guns.
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Love that comparison. I still feel like that was a lost season after Nichols dismissed. They had potential to be real special.
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He also cut Salt’s time come tourney time. Kody will get a lot of minutes initially, but we are recruiting more talented players now. If Kody keeps hesitating on open 3s, he needs bench regardless
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No doubt, CTB has proven he will change a lineup if it is not working. The Championship team had 2 or 3 different options when you look at it.
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Literally texted my Hoo group chat that same thing last week LOL
Reece, Carson, Jabri = Jerome, Guy, Hunter
Kadin off redshirt = Mamadi off redshirt
Talented transfer in Nichols never playing more than one game for us = talented transfer in Sam Hauser possibly never playing for us due to COVID (really hope the analogy falls apart here)
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Austin Nichols = the person I most want to hear as a guest on LockerRoomAccess! (Can you guys make it happen?) Maybe he’s ready to unveil the true story behind that season?
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I think Reece’s minutes depend a lot on Casey’s development as a ball handler and a shooter. If Casey can shoot ~30% from 3, which he’s certainly capable of, and shows promise as a secondary ball handler, he’ll gobble up Reece’s potential minutes.
Casey is obviously a physical specimen for his age, and Reece is rail thin with a suspect jumper. I love Reece and I think he will be a stud for us down the line, but I don’t think he’ll be able to defend at his size just yet. Similar to Guy / Jerome frosh yr, his offense (more specifically, ball handling) will get him on the floor, but his defense may take him off of it.
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From what I’ve read recently, he’s done a lot of work to reset his trajectory and is starting to get into a better/happier place, but it might be a little soon for a retrospective on his time here. That really was not that long ago. But I was happy to read he just got his degree from Memphis.
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I hope Justin gets minutes. I think he brings some of that Justin Anderson energy that is a help to any winning team.
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He always looked very comfortable on the floor when he did play and maintained what seemed to be very positive attitude about getting better and being ready. I suspect hes gonna have an impact when we get going and is plenty of room for him when he is ready.
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