Love Ham, but the last couple seasons making it look like Dennis Gates was the real genius on that coaching staff.
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Plus I think Gates brought another member of the FSU staff with him (?) to mizzou.
Yup, this guy:
Pretty good recruiting CV:
His recruiting success has been evident at every stop in his career ā from helping Florida State land top-10 classes in each of his first eight seasons in Tallahassee to signing the nationās No. 1 recruit, Derrick Favors, while at Georgia Tech. He recruited and developed four of Florida Stateās seven NBA Draft first-round picks, including Scottie Barnes, Patrick Williams, Devin Vassell and Malik Beasley.
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I think the list would be more interesting if we knew more about what it was ranking for. Best career so far, best to win a game right now, best 3-year projection are all slightly different lists, but valid ways to rank coaches.
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Love the concept of a bellwether player. The only team Iād offer an alternative for is NC State. They have a yawning gap when it comes to point guard play that I would guess Casey wonāt be asked to fill, so I think their bellwether is getting effective PG play from some combination of Horne, Woods (if eligible), and OāConnell.
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NC State just an awkward team to choose a playerā¦if we knew Woods was available, I think itās him. But I do think they just need one of those guards to make a big leap if theyāre gonna be better than average. I donāt see any of the rest of the cast ding it, so went with Casey.
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Gigantic shoes to fill in the departures of Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith at the 1 and 2. Ton of possibilities to work with, both returners (LJ Thomas and Breon Pass, neither of whom cracked 10 mpg played last year) and transfers (Michael OāConnell from Stanford, Kam Woods from NC A&T [needs a waiver], DJ Horne from Arizona State, and Jayden Taylor from Butler). Not yet including MJ Rice (Kansas xfer) who is apparently taking some time away from basketball but says heās coming back? Anyways, pick any of the above, they could be Stateās ābellweatherā guy. Impossible to predict.
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They are going to be a weird team. One thing that helps them a little bit is that DJ Burns scores mostly off of unassisted baskets, so maybe that insulates them from bad PG play. And in general they played a low assist rate style last season that also was very good at limiting turnovers; Terq and Jarkel were innovators in showing that you canāt turn the ball over if you shoot quickly enough.
But almost all of Caseyās 3pt makes were assisted, so they do need at least some competent passing for their offense to function.
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H/t @StLouHoo - I didnāt realize this:
https://twitter.com/MJrice_1/status/1704228428717678617?s=20
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I ran some numbers in an attempt to answer the questionā¦
āIf youāre a Duke freshman that averages under 10 mins/game, what does your playing time look like for the rest of your Duke career?ā
I was thinking about what Power and Knueppel could expect if they donāt get off the bench. Also I was bored.
Here are some findings based on the stats from the 2012/2013 season through the 2020-2021 season.
- 19 Freshmen since the 2012/2013 season have averaged under 10 mins/game.
- They averaged 4.9 mins/game as freshmen.
- Two of those freshman did not return for their sophomore seasons (Jordan Tucker, Henry Coleman).
- As sophomores they averaged 10.8 mins/game. On average, they saw an increase of 6 mins/game between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons.
- Only two players saw a decrease in playing time between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons (Jack White, Nick Pagliuca).
- Three players did not return for their junior seasons (Alex Murphy, Semi Ojeleye, Chase Jeter).
- As Juniors, they averaged 13.6 mins/game. On average, they saw an increase of 2.9 mins/game between their Sophomore and Junior seasons.
- Six players saw a decrease in playing time between their sophomore and junior seasons.
- Two players did not return for their senior season (Brennan Besser, Marques Bolden).
- As seniors, they averaged 16.6 mins/game. On average, they saw an increase of 2.6 mins compared to their JR season.
- Three players saw decrease in mins/game between their JR and SR seasons.
- Of the 18 available players, 11 players stayed for 4 seasons. (61%)
- Of those players that stayed for 4 years, on average, they saw a 257% increase in mins/game from their freshman to senior years.
Takeaways:
- If youāre a freshman at Duke and you average under 10 mins/game, you will most likely see a modest increase in playing time over the course of your career.
- Youāre most likely to see the largest increase in playing time between your freshman and sophomore years. (Your sophomore season is the most important season when it comes to playing time potential.)
- You have a pretty good chance of staying at Duke through your Senior season.
Oddities:
- The outlier, by far, was Grayson Allen. Averaged 9.2 mins as a Freshman. Also Matt Jones (7.3 mins as a freshman).
- Marshall Plumlee averaged 6.9 mins his first three years, and then 30.5 as a Senior.
- Four players averaged under 10 mins their entire 4 year careers (Nick Pagliuca, Antonio Vrankovic, Justin Robinson, Mike Buckmire)
- Brennan Besser averaged 1 min as a FR, 2 min as SO, and 3 min as Jr.
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Awesome work, ty for doing it.
Roughly speaking, what % of freshman who played sub-10 min/game ended up as starters or at least serious rotation players before leaving? Was it just the three you mentioned who did it?
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Youāre welcome. I think I might do UVA next as a comparison.
Iāll confirm later but just looking at the numbers, it looks like Grayson Allen, Marshall Plumlee, Matt Jones, and Jordan Goldwire all became starters/heavy rotation guys. There might be one or two other guys in there that got starts but Iāll have to look.
So if we take those 4 guys ā¦ Only 22% of freshmen who played under 10 mins/game became starters/heavy rotation guys. So youād roughly have a 1 in 5 chance over the course of your career.
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Interesting stuff - the big question is whether that data changes in the Scheyer era. K moved away from building for the longer term as he got closer to retirement. Contrast 2010 natty (lots of vets) to 2015 natty (fewer vets) to 2022 final 4 (really only one vet).
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Any smart people hearing anything early on Cudeau at UNC this pre season? Fresh is curious on how good he will be and how quickly
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This is all Iāve seen:
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1707823737611911498?s=20
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Iām very interested to see how UNC looks. Feels like the first time Hubert has āhis guysā. So itāll be put up or shut up time.
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If he can get everyone on the same page could be really good, I think
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From 3MW pod:
ACC in the noncon last year, against the spread:
- Overall: 71-99, ~41%
- UVa 3-7
- UNC 3-7-1
- Clemson 4-8
Vs. Q1/2 noncon - 21-34, 9th best among all conferences
The noncon is super important; hope that all the coaches treat it as such this year.
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Word is he will be a more effective frosh than Anthony was ā¦ a better fit with the roster and skillsā¦ Iām surrounded by Heels here ā¦ they are very excited about him, just unsure how fast he will adjust as a younger dude.
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Best ACC preview Iāve seen so far ā audio or otherwise. Though I only listened through UVa so far (Duke, Miami, UNC, us).
ACC chatter starts at ~16:43
UVa is from ~39:43 to ~44:12
A few notes:
- Jim leans heavy on the top 10 defense potential, but whereās the offense?
- They donāt really follow recruiting so pretty sparse on Bond (incl. a mix-up on foreign trip), Elijah, and Blake
- Beeks is their top perimeter defender (Kalkbrenner in the post / overall)
- Not the most enthusiastic breakdown, but at least two of them say we will finish second (while pointing out this isnāt the ACC you remember)
- I love their Hubert Davis chatter. I actually think theyāre too tough on him, but itās refreshing to hear talk about how terrible a job Hubert did last year. I mean, he was really really bad.
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