2023 Late Recruiting Cycle

If Reece doesn’t come back, then Taine has the longest tenure in the program and Isaac has the most returning minutes.

Who is likely to be the team’s vocal veteran leader? Taine? IMac? A transfer used to that role at his last school? No one?

I’d guess a transfer but I don’t know the internal dynamics and personalities enough to make an educated guess.

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I think Dunn has that fire! Or Dante Harris.

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It has to be one of the most talented guys to garner respect from teammates… IM and Harris are best candidates
That’s been a void the last 4 years

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Harris is going to be the vocal leader next year even if Reece comes back. Only non-freshman guard with that kind of personality

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Soon everyone will talk about renting services of players for a year instead of securing commitments.

https://twitter.com/On3sports/status/1645422551642918913?s=20

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20%… It’s going to be interesting to see the fallout in a year or two. No way all those players land in A)better places B)make an impact where they land

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Those numbers are going to be artificially high until the covid bonus years are over. Guys like Caffaro and Jayden Nixon (last year) are included.

Not saying it isn’t still high, but the 20% is misleading

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Initially, I was very opposed to the immediate eligibility of transfers, but my thinking on this has been undergoing change. That said, I believe it is trending towards greater parity in Div 1. First and foremost, if a player is sitting on the end of the bench of a P5(6) school, and doesn’t see a clear path to meaningful playing time, I think it’s in everyone’s best interest (from a basketball perspective) if he, or she, transfers. Playing time at a mid major might allow that player to develop to his potential, and it frees up a scholarship for his original school to use. It’s a fresh opportunity for both. I also think we’re seeing mid majors become more competitive nationally due to the influx of P5(6) transfers. That said, when rising junior and senior players, who are part of the rotation leave, that can really hurt a program. Typically, this is where the mid majors suffer.

Prior to 2021, the transfer portal saw roughly 800 to 1,000 players enter each year (although in its first year, 2016, there were fewer than 500). Since 2021, and immediate eligibility, there have been over 1,700. Currently, there are just under 1,400, and I imagine that that will continue to go up. My biggest take-away from all this is that recruiting is a crapshoot. Mistakes are constantly being made, both by schools and recruits. Prospects are both over-valued and under-valued, for a wide range of reasons. Immediate eligibility in the transfer portal is a natural correction tool. It helps players find the spot where they should have been in the first place. That said, there are other phenomena with which the transfer portal can be associated. Among other things, it is further evidence that most recruits commit to a coach rather than a school. It isn’t that uncommon to see nearly an entire roster enter the portal when the coach leaves, by whatever means. Also, I think the portal can identify toxic lockerrooms. When you see significant numbers of upperclassmen, who are part of the primary rotation, entering the portal, it has to make you wonder what is happening within that program.

The only real concern I have, at the moment, is the impact NIL has on the entire process, but hopefully these “wild west” days of the NIL will end soon, and the NCAA will figure out how to manage and regulate it.

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Cross Handlogten off the list (Gators).

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Actually, I have a suspicion that that math is a bit off. Assuming that that there are around 350, give or take a few, schools playing Div 1 basketball, and that each of them is allowed to have 13 scholarship players on their roster, that means that there are, potentially, 4,550 players. The number is lower as not all conferences allow scholarships (I believe) and not all rosters are full. But, that’s the high end. In 2021 and 2022, there were over 1,700 players in the portal, which is actually approach 40%. Today, there are almost 1,400 players in the portal, which is over 30%. Now, not everyone in the portal will actually transfer. If I am not mistaken, the past two cycles have seen that about 40% of those in the portal did not find new homes. Again, there were a variety of reasons for that, but… Regardless, even if only those who actually go through with transfers to another school are considered, the figure is north of 25%.

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Dang, That was the big man i wanted

That’s OK. Not all the incoming freshman land in their best place or make an impact, either.

In fact, I’d bet that more transfers than freshmen wind up at the college that’s best for them. Look at our transfers as examples: I think Malachi, Carson, Igor, Jabri and Casey all are in better situations now than they were at Virginia. Justin, maybe not so much.

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There’s rumors on Duke and UNC 247 boards that Mgabko may decommit from Duke due to Heavy rotation at the wings.

Man, why can’t power just decommit and come play the 3 here next year. There’s A damn open spot for him.

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Yeah, I was pissed we lost Power to Duke mostly because I wanted to beat Duke. But he didn’t seem like a big need. But with Traudt gone, a stretch (sort of) big is a much bigger need.

It’s also the area where I haven’t heard much from our portal activity.

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Agree. I also believe that it is the lateral transfer which is most at risk of making a poor decision, and I think Justin McKoy is a prime example. He transferred to UNC looking, presumably, for an expanded role, and I think he had less court time the past two years than he did at Virginia. He would probably have played a lot more if he had gone to Hawaii in the first place. If a player is dissatisfied with his role at one school, transferring to a comparable program seems a risky proposition.

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Wait, did he end up going to Hawaii? I haven’t been keeping track.

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Agree, but if there were a de-commitment out there which might result in a Virginia commitment, I would much prefer it be Reed Sheppard. For the immediate future, I have a suspicion that, with the emergence of Ryan Dunn, Power would be a bit redundant. It seems to me that their roles would be very similar.

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VerbalCommits has him committed to Hawaii.

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Wow, good for him. Probably worse places to be young and playing basketball.

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https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1645462610505080833

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