Initially, I was very opposed to the immediate eligibility of transfers, but my thinking on this has been undergoing change. That said, I believe it is trending towards greater parity in Div 1. First and foremost, if a player is sitting on the end of the bench of a P5(6) school, and doesn’t see a clear path to meaningful playing time, I think it’s in everyone’s best interest (from a basketball perspective) if he, or she, transfers. Playing time at a mid major might allow that player to develop to his potential, and it frees up a scholarship for his original school to use. It’s a fresh opportunity for both. I also think we’re seeing mid majors become more competitive nationally due to the influx of P5(6) transfers. That said, when rising junior and senior players, who are part of the rotation leave, that can really hurt a program. Typically, this is where the mid majors suffer.
Prior to 2021, the transfer portal saw roughly 800 to 1,000 players enter each year (although in its first year, 2016, there were fewer than 500). Since 2021, and immediate eligibility, there have been over 1,700. Currently, there are just under 1,400, and I imagine that that will continue to go up. My biggest take-away from all this is that recruiting is a crapshoot. Mistakes are constantly being made, both by schools and recruits. Prospects are both over-valued and under-valued, for a wide range of reasons. Immediate eligibility in the transfer portal is a natural correction tool. It helps players find the spot where they should have been in the first place. That said, there are other phenomena with which the transfer portal can be associated. Among other things, it is further evidence that most recruits commit to a coach rather than a school. It isn’t that uncommon to see nearly an entire roster enter the portal when the coach leaves, by whatever means. Also, I think the portal can identify toxic lockerrooms. When you see significant numbers of upperclassmen, who are part of the primary rotation, entering the portal, it has to make you wonder what is happening within that program.
The only real concern I have, at the moment, is the impact NIL has on the entire process, but hopefully these “wild west” days of the NIL will end soon, and the NCAA will figure out how to manage and regulate it.