🏀 2025-26 In-Season UVa Basketball Thread

So a guy who predicted us to win 8-10 ACC games is now demanding high expectations?

College Basketball Sport GIF by NCAA March Madness

I promised myself I would never bitch, complain, whine, or worry about UVa basketball after this and honestly, no one on this board really should - become a Duke fan instead :blush:. I wasn’t sold on Odom or his approach to the roster at the beginning of the year, but DAMN 27-4 is an amazing accomplishment. We won some tough games that maybe we should have lost, but we didn’t and we could just as easily be 30-1. I hope we win the ACC, I hope we advance into the second weekend, but by any measurement, this has been a home run season.

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This is the correct way to think about this.

Tony battled UVA demons far older and larger than any one coach. It’s tremendous that he overcame them in the postseason and outperformed his seed exactly once. He is UVA royalty for having done so; winning one title here is like winning three at another university.

Odom will fight the exact same demons. I’m excited to see what happens.

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How so?

Being hyperbolic to make the point that bad things have tended to happen to us at the worst possible moment in the most embarrassing possible way. Overcoming that is a feat.

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Which year did he outperform his seed? Are you counting winning the championship in 2019 as outperforming a 1 seed?

Yup exactly. A final four corresponds to performing to your seed as a 1 seed.

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Absolutely — we’re weren’t the overall No. 1 seed (that was Duke). And no one finished ahead of us when the final second ticked down in Minneapolis.

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winning a title is outperforming a 1 seed. expected wins for a 1 seed is like 3.5.

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This may be fair if it was a fully returning roster. But a roster full of a almost completely new team, none of which has played together, even with the best roster in the country it’s a crapshoot if they gel together. To each their own, but this year is an unmitigated success in my eyes

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https://x.com/nextroundlive/status/2031034179983442388?s=46&t=KRUvpbKQ9s5_3BPeM0gClg

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Nice visual from EvanMiya on rotation depth: https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/s/7ryC8Ku0Fr

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I kinda feel like that’s a bad use of visuals. It seems like what he’s measuring is how far apart your best and worst players are? But is that really the same thing as depth?

I view depth more as 2 of everything, whereas this is how flat your roster is? I’m confused (what else is new…)

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I guarantee you that every team has two of everything. The question is whether your No. 2 is any good.

Interesting that Virginia’s most impactful player is a bench player and the least is a starter, though.

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Right, you’d have to somehow mix in amount of PT to really show depth.

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I thought you were gonna follow this with (because this is my complaint), they should have rank ordered this according the metric they’re tracking (the difference between best and worst players). This is just a jumble.

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I disagree that it’s useless. I think because he’s plotting the difference between 1st and 8th most effective on each team, it’s actually a useful chart for showing depth.

now we could argue about the cut off at 8 but I think it’s reasonable given that most coaches don’t play more than 8 guys.

Agree, I think the best possible depth metric, per this analysis, would be a very short line, towards the top. But that wouldn’t sing out in any way, visually

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This is a very nice story. Do I have some follow up questions? Yes, of course I do. But that’s not the point. Don’t ruin a nice story.

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What follow-up questions could you have that would ruin the story? Makes perfect sense Ugo would want some home cooking living abroad. I lived in the Balkans for just a year and I craved a good burger more than you could imagine for MONTHS.

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