Yeah, agree. I think one win is ticket out of Dayton.
Tangent : can only AQs get the non-Dayton 11s? @Raleigh_Hoo
Where do the percentages come from. Is he modeling all future games? Seems to me the numbers are so round heās just estimating.
Another thing: is he estimating the chance the teams will be in his bracket, the consensus bracket, or the committeeās bracket.
Iām inspired to create my own percentages as soon as kenpom gives his conference tourney probabilities. Because I think if we lose in the QF, then a few teams pass us if they get a quality win in their tourneys.
Also this could come down to Sundays A10 and American finals where thereās an at large lock who could win the autobid and knock the current autobid placeholders (South Florida and Richmond) out of the brackets creating up to two more bubble slots.
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Fair assumption, I think
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Fwiw, this is my assumption, and Iād bet it happens before Sunday. I also saw Richmond play their worst game of the year, to be fair
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Yeah, the dude was just guessing. He mentions it somewhere in the replies.
Of course heās guessing. Thereās only one group whoās not guessing, and theyāre not talking
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Yea thatās in line with my expectations at this point. Blowout loss in QF: out. Close lose in QF: Dayton. Win the QF and we should be able to avoid Dayton, although a 1-3 point QF win followed by a 15 point SF loss could send us back to Dayton
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Live look at me cheering on Virginia in the quarterfinal game in DC with $50 on the line
āNo! Blow! Out! No! Blow! Out!ā
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Those can go to at large teams too. Last year NC State was an 11 seed and they didnāt play in the First Four.
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Yup. Without looking it up to see if my memory is correct it seems to me more of them go to at larges than AQs
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I believe itās the four lowest-seeded AQās and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams. And you play a team in your same sub-set (i.e., AQ plays AQ and at-large plays at-large)
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Also, after JBR posted his ACC %'s last night, and then argued for the 3rd place ACC finisher to be a lock, our boy Seth Davis chimed in:
Two wins in the ACCT (meaning we likely beat both Clemson and Duke), weāre going higher than a 10-seed (because at that point weāre as likely to just have won the whole damn ACCT). LOL.
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The way these discussions get reduced down to 1-3 ābest winsā and āworst lossesā make me want to 
We could simply evaluate teams on the totality of their resume, especially now that we have computers to aid our brains when they get to capacity.
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Waitā¦ Bradley is a better win than Florida?
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Seth Davis drinks his bath water.
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Seth Davis admits their best win is over Bradley (64th in Kenpom) and heās still trying to push them into the tournament?
Their best non conference win is over #133 Toledo. Nothing else over a top 200 team out of conference.
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Seth Davis doesnāt even try to hide his dislike for UVa anymore. 2 wins to get in?? Youāve got to be kidding.
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Richmond losing or USF losing doesnāt help us. Only Dayton and FAU winning.
If any team not mentioned wins, itās still one AQ plus one at-large from those conferences.
But Dayton and FAU winning means the leagues just get their AQ and no at-large.
We might know early in the week that Dayton and FAU have lost making those two bid leagues. We canāt know until Sunday afternoon that theyāve won, making them one bid leagues.
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If we get in, (6) Washington St vs (11) Virginia seems like a decent prediction.
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Odds are out for all the conference tournaments and the field is favored over Dayton and FAU in their respective tournaments. FAU got a pretty tough draw.