Did Tony start Kihei for 5 years in hopes that heād get hurt? The people are asking.
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In hindsight, maybe, but we still could have lost to UMBC. At least we got an ACCT trophy, which we donāt have an abundance of.
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I can assure you that āVegasā has far more sophisticated models than kenpoo and that those models have some form of recency bias incorporated into them.
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Tom Crean just said that the ACC will get 6 teams in.
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Some uber-nerd reading on Vegas spreads and a statistical analysis of margins of victory in college basketball. Over/under on how long before this post gets moved over to the Nerdery where it belongs?
Iām writing a statistically robust blog post on this very topic right now, but the punchline is: whenever @jazznut sees it
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It is amazing how clueless announcers and talking heads are to the selection process.
I mean it is one thing to say I think they should for whatever reason, but there is no way in any scenario that the ACC gets 6 teams in unless UVA makes the semis and WF makes the finals and loses to someone not UVA/DUke in the final.
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Whatās worse is he followed it up by saying he doesnāt personally think they deserve 6 teams, itās just what he thinks will happen 
(He was saying that he disagreed with Lunardi that Wake-Pitt was a āplay-inā game and he thought both Pitt and Wake were locks for the tourneyā¦)
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The 6th one is NC State as the auto-bid
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I actually believe five would be the right number. But I think four is our limit outside real madness. I think the MWC is a decent league. I do not think it should get six bids with the ACC getting three. Big 12, BE , Big 10, SEC are all good, but not such separation there that merits the ACC getting less than five bids. Itās crazy the reputation hit the conference has received over the years.
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Duke, UNC, UVA, Clemson, WF, random winner
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Yep I miss read that. My bad.
No upsets tonight so far so bubble teams doing what they are supposed to.
KSU though up 9 on Shedrick and Texas with 5 mins left. They still may need to make the Big 12 final to have any shot, but would be good to get them out.
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I think the deltas between the efficiency metrics and resumes are causing a lot of cognitive dissonance this year. Probably part of the reason that you have some people saying that weāre a lock, but we have poor Vegas odds for getting an at-large.
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I mean, it was written like a logic puzzle where you had to fill in the last spot
Yeah, I mean I get that we could have helped ourselves by not getting blown out every time we lost, but I just donāt see 45 resumes out there that are better. I think there is plenty of room for us and Indiana State and Wake in the place of some of the mid tier teams in those conferences.
I agree with the idea that weāre a comfortable lock because of resume (SOR 32) but weāll look like we were one of the very last teams in because our efficiency metrics will relegate us to an 11-seed.
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Yeah, I hope they leave out some of the middling Big12/Big10 teams. My point was more that the NCAA is rolling with two different approaches for assessing teams that are usually (I think) fairly correlated. This year, thereās a weaker correlation, and no one really knows how the committee brings the two criteria together into a final decision, and so everyone is just confused.
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Iām thankful we wonāt be a 4-seed playing McNeese State. They will make some noise in the tournament.
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So, Lunardi (and I know what everyone thinks of him) just said that we are ā maybe not a statistical lock --essentially in because there are too many results that would need to occur to knock us out; the probabilities are significantly in our favor.
But letās win, and make a statement!
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