Last Week 4-4
Last week was one of those weeks where I was sweating and after grinding my teeth and way too much caffeine and booze I would up 4-4 last weekend. As we enter week four I certainly feel like I’m getting a better feel for the season, last week the only time I was truly off was the Rutgers game, everything else became a toss up. I like where I’m sitting entering week 4.
NC State vs. UConn +38.5
UConn has welcome Jim Mora l with open arms and he’s been rewarded with a lost at home by 34 to Syracuse (more on that later) and being shut out in Ann Arbor 59-0. Few things are more consistant than the futility of UConn football. However, this is why gambling is great because it can make a stinker of a game like this one interesting and it has absolutely nothing to do with the talent on the field. NC State has a date with Clemson next week. The Wolfpack knows if they want to earn a trip to Charlotte in December they got to knock off the Tigers. My gut tells me that while NC State wants to come out fired up and focused on Saturday they will call the dogs off early to stay healthy for the following week. This is also a perfect trap game for the Wolfpack to fail to cover a big spread.
Kansas -7 vs. Duke
The strangest part of this game is both teams enter undefeated and looking pretty damn good, in KU’s case they are the best surprise in college football. Jalon Daniels is what BA used to be, he’s completing 67% of his passes and has the best QBR in the country 97.5. Duke has been impressive in their start to the season but the Jayhawks are a scoring machine. They’ve racked up 103 points in two road games this season. I don’t know what a packed house in Lawrence Kansas looks like for a football game, but I expect we are going to find out on Saturday.
Kansas -7 Over 65
USC -5.5 vs. Oregon St.
This line has been fascinating to watch opened with USC -6.5. By Thursday afternoon there was more money backing the Beavers and the 6.5 than, on any of the 16 Week 3 NFL games and over three times more money on Ore. St than any other CFB Week 4 game spread. It’s madness that I honestly don’t get. USC is officially what Oklahoma used to be. A juggernaut on offense, suspect on defense and a bit sloppy all around. It’s pretty apparent this is what you get with Lincoln Riley in charge. Many expect USC on the road to have the numbers catch up to them and Oregon St. to gut this one out. There’s been so much money that the spread moved to 5.5 which I cannot stay away from. I’m locking this in as my @HoozGotNext lock of the week.
Texas Tech +7 vs. Texas
I’m very tempted to take the ML here as well… what the hell give me a modest half unit on TT +225. The Longhorns avoided the disastrous potential letdown against UTSA and found their offense in the second half. Texas Tech went on the road and fell to a good NC State team, but much of their demise was self inflicted with 4 turnovers. Texas Tech is just different when they play at home especially in these big games. @CavTex can elaborate better than I can. But I’ve seen too many strange things happen when a ranked team walks into Lubbock. This is where you see the true letdown affect from the Longhorns lost to Bama two weeks ago. Texas Tech hangs around all afternoon and don’t be surprised if they outright win this thing.
Texas Tech +7
Tennessee -10 vs. Florida Over 62.5
I don’t think I’ve watched or bet this much Gator football since Spurrier was roaming the sidelines in Gainesville. I’m pseudo adopting this program as one I want to watch and see what Billy Napier can ultimately build. Speaking of building Josh Heupel has the Vols running and emotions have not been this high on Rocky Top since Tee Martin was take snaps. The Vols do a very good job of sticking to who they are and finding ways to run tempo even when the opponent tries their hardest to muck up and slow the game down. Tennessee ability to impose their desired pace of play is the key here. If it comes down to scoring points in bunches I don’t think the Gators can keep up. I like Richardson as a QB for UF but he’s not a gun slinger. This one stays close for most of it but in the end the Vols are too much.
Tennessee -10.5 Over 62.5
James Madison +7 vs. App. State
Welcome to the party Mr. Madison. First time I’ve ever placed a bet on that school from the other side of Afton Mnt. App. State is have a truly magical season and it’s also full of flukes and some of the most random endings you will ever see. They are a good football team for sure but they also barely escaped SEC charity case Troy last weekend. This is the first season the Dukes have played big boy ball and they are acquitting themselves nicely to the Sun Belt. A game with App. State is James Madison’s first chance to truly put their mark on the big stage. The Dukes have some big games down the back half of their schedule and need to take advantage of this opportunity at hand. Expect them to keep this one tight throughout.
James Madison +7
Virginia +10 vs. Syracuse
Friday night football, not going to lie I’m not a fan of Friday night or Thursday night games for that matter. As a season ticket holder who lived 100 miles from the stadium I found them near impossible to attend without taking a day off work. Cuse has started the season off strong going 3-0. But when you start to dig into that start there are obvious holes in the armor. The Purdue game took some insanity, UConn doesn’t count (see above) the UofL game looks legit. I am sure that Mr. Anae would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some longing looks from the Virginia sidelines and stands towards their former OC. I don’t think the Virginia offense is fixed or even on it’s way to being that way. I do think the defense is better than we’ve seen the past two seasons. I also like some of the developments in the running game, XB looks like a piece you can build with. At the end of the day 10 just feels too big, the Syracuse defense is not as good as Illinois and won’t be able to put the clamps down in the same manor.
Hoos cover the 10.5