Last Week 6-4
Season 30-23
We have reached the mid-way point of the college football season and what a long strange trip it has been. Iāve managed to keep myself above .500 with my picks and even made a few dollars, which honestly surprised me when I looked at the Dragon Co savings and investment portfolio. This has not felt lie a winning season to this point. Not surprisingly, my concern about nailing picks responds in correlation to how the Hoos are performing on the field, and at 5-1 I feel more capable of taking a few Lās on the gambling ledger.
Anyways, the Hoos are on a much needed bye week, but Dragonās Picks donāt take a week off. College football season is our busy season and we got to make enough money to hold us over.
As always Dragonās College Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training (being like @jazznutUVA and order your towel today), Tall Pines Marketing and Communications, and I need to win some money so I can move someplace warmer.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Under 44.5
Is it possible that Sarksā Texas future is hanging in the balance with this yearās Red River Shootout? The Longhorns have struggled this season, and we all know what Arch Manning has struggled. Last week against an aggressive Florida front that made him scramble six times. Archās biggest issue has been him holding on to the ball too long, 3.32 average in four games this season, thatās a lifetime in the pocket and any decent defensive unit will punish a QB for that sort of indecision. OU is hoping to have Mateer back behind center, but how effective will he be? According to reports he was still unable to grip a ball last weekend.
Under 44.5
Michigan +2.5 vs. USC
Weāve been in the Lincoln Riley USC era for three plus season at this point and each of those seasons have been considered a rebuilding year for the Trojans. Like construction on I95 when will this rebuild end? Rileyās tenure at USC has consisted of winning over 30 games, and none of them are against what youād consider a better opponent. Which is a problem when the Trojans play in the Big 10The biggest breakdown for USC has been on their lines. Both fail to enforce their will on their opponents. Enter a Michigan program that ran for over 300 yards against USC last season while passing for 32yards. I donāt think the Wolverines will be quite so dominate on the ground this time out, but they will also throw for more than 30 yards. Michiganās rushing attack ranks sixth in the country in rushing efficiency. They are also sixth in yards before contact, which means the offensive line is clearing the way for Justice Haynes( to have more than 700 yards rushing this season. Strap on this one could be rough
Michigan +2.5
Missouri +3 vs. Alabama
Itās time to crank the heat back up on DeBoers seat down in Alabama and Mizzu is the perfect opponent to do that. The Tigers are coming off a bye week and get a Alabama team coming off consecutive games against ranked opponents that proved to be very emotional for the staff and players. Now the Tide is heading north to take on Mizzu who owns the second best home record in the nation since 2023 at 18-1. This is also a game the Tigers have marked on their schedule after the 34-0 drubbing they took from Alabama last season. Missouri pulls this upset in large part thanks to dual-threat QB Beau Pribula and RB Ahmad Hardy. His ability to move the chains with his legs will challenge an Alabama defense thatās taking on a lot of wear-and-tear and gave up 230 yards at Florida State and 227 at Georgia.
Missouri +3
UMass +2.5 vs. Kent St.
Iām calling this the @5sheff special he brought this game to my attention and upon a closer look I couldnāt resist diving in. Zippy got their one win of the season with a comeback victory over Merrimack a few weeks ago. Not to be outdone, UMass lost to Bryant this seasonā¦ thatās enough to make Mike London scratch his head in disbelief. Both defenses struggle in coverage both bottom-five in coverage. Both teams also struggle on offense with both offenses average under 14 points per game and both have allowed more than 75% of red zone trips to end in touchdowns. Oh and Kent St. starting QB Dru DeSheilds may be out with injury, he already missed last weekās game.
UMass +2.5
Oregon -7 vs. Indiana
Iāll admit Iām a Hoosier hater and thatās affecting my read on this one. A reason for the hate is every time I dig into what Coach Cignetti has accomplished at Indiana, I am left unimpressed. The Hoosiers have been great against lesser or equal competition but they have failed to answer the bell when asked to step up against better teams. Making the trip to Oregon, Indiana is going to be asked to stepped up in a major way.
Oregon -7
Wisconsin vs. Iowa UNDER 37.5
I have not hammered the Iowa underline enough this season, and with a bad Wisconsin team on the other side of the ball, I canāt stay away. Itās a bit surprising that Luke Fickle still has a job in Madison given he was supposed to modernize the Badgers offense and those efforts have fallen completely flat. The Badgers are averaging just over 18ppg and rank in the bottom quarter in every offensive category. Iowa is in year two of their revamped offensive era, and things look mostly the same as they have for the past 10 years. The Hawkeyes can move the ball well on the ground, and have nothing that resembles a passing attack. The formula for Iowa remains the same play, solid defense, get a special teams play and hold on. I could see Wisconsin getting shutout in this one.
Under 37.5
Air Force +7 UNLV
Finally I have an opportunity to dunk on former Hoo AC. JKJK sort of. I had the opportunity to watch UNLV last weekend in a wacky weather game against Wyoming and I came away thinking a few things. First, AC has not matured in his playing style despite the Dan Mullen influence. More importantly to this game the UNLV rush defense has struggled, giving up 143 ypg. Air Force relies on their option offense and I expect them to move the ball well enough to keep this one close.
Air Force +6.5
Old Dominion -14.5 vs. Marshall
ODU has been a juggernaut this season with an average win differential of 12 points. The Monarchs are responsible for giving Indiana their toughest game of the season so far. ODU is putting up over 35ppg. The Thundering Heard have proven to be better than I thought this season. If they had caught a break against Missouri St. theyād be entering this game at 3-2. Why am I backing the Monarchs? Marshall has been solid this season, but they do not do anything well. Their offense is middle of the pack and if they cannot getting their rushing attack going (198ypg) or if theyāre forced to play from behind, they do not have a second trick to play. I like ODU to jump to a big lead early and ride it throughout the contest.
ODU -14.5
UCLA vs Michigan St. Over 53.5
Michigan St. Overs have hit in four consecutive games. My biggest concern for this one is around UCLA suffering from the combination of a hangover from the Penn St. upset and an early start time over in Lansing Michigan. The coaching change seems to be working out for UCLA as Nico is finding his groove and the Bruins offense scored 6 TDās last week, and I expect UCLA to continue to grow their offense against a Spartans defense that does not stop anyone. Michigan St ranks 115th in the nation in points given up at 30.6ppg.
Over 53.5
