Efficiency on the season

Men's Basketball
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Through 3 games here is the efficiency data so far. Best big: Huff. Best wing: Tomas. Best ball handler: Beekman.

UVA as a team was 121.6 on offense (21st) and 89.7 on defense (85th) for a net per 100 possessions of +31.9. This is the baseline to determine who contributed the most above or below the team performance.

Individual ratings.

Huff: O: 171.0, D: 80.1, Net: +90.9

Beekman: O: 150.6, D: 85.4, Net +65.2

Woldetensae: O: 141.8, D: 95.0, Net: +46.8

Murphy: O: 134.0, D: 92.7, Net: +41.3

Stattmann: O: 125.8, D: 89.7, Net: +36.1

Shedrick: O: 120.7, D: 85.6, Net: +35.1

Hauser: O: 126.2, D: 93.6, Net: +32.6

McKoy: O: 114.6, D: 89.5, Net: +25.1

Morsell: O: 104.6, D: 92.6, Net: +12.0

Clark: O: 82.8, D: 98.4, Net: -15.6

McCorkle: O: 95.4, D: 94.7, Net: +0.7

Abdur-Rahim: O: 78.9, D: 100, Net: -21.1

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Efficiency is key for CTB!

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Here’s the official numbers from StatBroadcast for the year…

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=319995

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I’ll admit, I don’t know as much about how these efficiency numbers are calculated as I should. Can somebody explain why Hauser’s is so low relative to others? I mean, I noted last night myself that his defense is uh, not great, but that alone has really resulted in a metric saying he’s less effective on the floor than Stattmann?

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I think it’s a combination of Hauser’s poor defense and the general problems with the player efficiency metric that many here have pointed out before.

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Offensive efficiency stats for individual players are a little suspect and need context, but I don’t trust individual defensive efficiency stats at all. The packline is intended to operate as a unit with many help responsibilities. A stat attributed to one player can so often be due to the lapse of another player. Heck, the team became so reliant on Isaiah Wilkins barking out communication from the paint, you could argue that failed communication from a third player put two other players in a bind.

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Hauser had a really bad Game 2. He should rise as more games happen.

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@NorVaHoo: The efficiency stat per the link are as follows…

EFF: Efficiency Stat as calculated by Manley’s formula: PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK - Missed Shots - TO

It appears like the efficiency ratings @DavetheWave posted are a different formula however.

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Offensive and defensive ratings is what I use

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@DavetheWave That’s odd… because if you look at the link I sent… those are there as well and are slightly different than yours. Wonder what the discrepancy is?

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What is the defensive efficiency formula, do you know?

That formula shown rewards points and rebounds. Worth considering is whether the points came from individual skill beating a defender or perhaps it was due to a well-executed backscreen for an open layup. I remember Kyle Guy had a lot of rebounds in his final year. But Jack Salt always did a great job boxing out which often enabled Kyle to come grab an otherwise uncontested rebound. Salt doesn’t get credit for the boxout, but Guy’s numbers improve.

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Thanks for that link. The notes clearly caution against the precision and conclusions that can be drawn from the defensive stats.

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ORtg: Offensive Rating is points produced by a player per 100 possessions

DRtg: Defensive Rating is points allowed by a player per 100 possessions

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True but as a coach I like to compare the data to the eyeball test and very rarely does this set of data disappoint. It only accounts for usage though, so if a player could have taken more shots when open and doesn’t, etc. - they don’t get penalized.

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I think efficiency rankings can be useful (more so for O than D…just don’t think they paint the full picture)…but, they should only be part of the equation…there is a lot to winning basketball games that doesn’t show up on any metric…

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Basketball metrics are much more effective on the teamwide level than the player level.

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I’m good using PER too per your preference. Here are the team data on PER:

|1|Jay Huff 42.1
|2|Trey Murphy 28.9
|3|Sam Hauser 28.5
|4|Kadin Shedrick 26.8
|5|Kody Stattmann 25.8
|6|Thomas Woldetensae 24.6
|7|Reece Beekman 21.0
|8|Justin McKoy 20.5
|9|Casey Morsell 18.1
|10|Carson McCorkle 12.8
|11|Chase Coleman 6.2
|12|Kihei Clark 5.4
|13|Jabri Abdur-Rahim 0.8
|14|Jayden Nixon 0.1
|15|Francisco Caffaro -7.7
|16|Austin Katstra -33.8
|17|Malachi Poindexter -33.8

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20

I also like Win shares per 40 minutes

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These efficiency stats should be supplemented with the eye test–specifically noting which player’s tendencies and responsibilities are likely to inflate or deflate their metrics compared to their actual value. A couple things that come to mind for our team offensively:

  1. Jay is often the beneficiary of good offense run by the rest of the team. His ORTG is inflated from this.
  2. Whoever is being asked to make a play when the defense shuts down our normal offense will be very underrated by ORTG (e.g. Kihei last year, Sam this year? Also Kobe)
  3. Very selective players with low usage will be overrated by ORTG (e.g. Beekman so far)
  4. Good shooters who rely on others to create will be overrated (e.g. Tomas, Trey)

They’re still useful, I just think they need to be viewed with these qualifications. As I mentioned on another page, Huff had a higher ORTG than Guy and Jerome in 2019, proof of number 1 above

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