February 2023 - UVA Basketball

Men's Basketball
201

I also altruistically hope not because that would not be a good measure for teams that play in lower level leagues.

I just bristle at the notion that not playing non-con in Jan/Feb** is systemically under-seeding ACC teams. There could be an odd year where it is true (maybe last year), but I have no reason to think it’s true in general. And if it were true – it’s well within the conference and the member schools’ power to address the problem. Either put more emphasis on team cohesion in November and December (as the Zags have had to do) and/or change the schedule a bit.

But when we played conference games on opening night, the ACC coaches all whined liked the divas they are about having to play meaningful games on opening night.

** to be clear though – I would love to play more noncon in Jan/Feb and fewer turrible ACC games but I think it would be good for mostly separate reasons.

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202

The reason the league was happy to increase from 16 to 18 to 20 ACC regular season games, thereby reducing the OOC load down to ~10 a year, is because too many league teams were scheduling too many garbage cupcake games. I’m not saying a handful of warmup games aren’t okay, whether to get your deep bench some run or work out some kinks with new sets and strategies… but (a) they’re garbage for your SOS metrics that as we’re seeing hurt the league overall, (b) increase the opportunities for those garbage teams to score embarrassing upsets, and (c) have absolutely no viewership demand for our ESPN partners.

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(well, my very radical opinion is that we need to take scheduling control away from the schools in general)

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I kinda loved what C-USA tried with their conference schedule a couple of years back to dynamically get a couple of better games on their better teams’ schedules. They grouped teams after the first 14 games based on their standings and had them play each other an extra time, so that the top 5 teams got like 4 guaranteed good games.

I don’t think they stuck with it after some realignment, but A+ for creativity.

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Yeah, they put it in to respond to the year when ODU (with the Stith bros), W.Ky (with Darius) and MTSU (with the coach who’s now at Ole Miss) all had very good resumes, but they all got screwed when Marshall won their tourney. And, to be fair, proceeded to win a game in the tourney (over Wichita St). ODU and MTSU had only played each other once…

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Also worth pointing out in this discussion that Lunardi is around the 90th best bracketologist. Just because he says something doesn’t mean it’s accurate lol

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207

Well at least Lunardi can claim that he is better than Jerry Palm who they trot out on the CBS selection show even though he ranks as worst of the worst.

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208

I like to look at Bracket Matrix, which may not be better at predicting what will happen (it includes a lot of randos), but I feel like it gives me a good view of public consensus.

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209

One thing that looks very likely is we’ll be playing in Greensboro for the first two rounds. Some years the location closest to us is hard to get (mainly because of Duke and UNC) but this year the top teams aren’t close to us. Tennessee is probably the closest (I suck at geography so maybe not), but I’m not sure if Greensboro would be their top option.

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210

Tenn probably the closest 1 to Greensboro. Birmingham might be closer but Bama obviously gets that bid. So grouping them in Greensboro with the Hoos makes sense.

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211

When’s the last time an ACC team with a winning % above 85% with a 10+ game winning streak been left off the 1 line? I bet never.

Granted, this is all hypothetical, because running the table will be very difficult.

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Well the ACC has never been ranked the 7th best conference before lol probably more informative to look at past Pac 12 and Big East double champs. The committee is going to give at least as much credit to Arizona or UCLA for winning the Pac 12, Alabama for winning the SEC, Purdue the Big Ten, and whoever wins the Big 12. Would be completely reasonable to have the ACC champ 5th of that group without even considering Houston, the Big East, or a second team from any of those conferences.

Not saying we can’t get a 1 seed if we win out but we are going to need some help. We appear to be projected in the 10-12 range on the seed line. We only have one Q1 (@ UNC) game left thus we don’t have many opportunities to win our way up. We will need others to lose their way to falling behind us.

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213

My slight push back here is: it’s not like it’s a conspiracy. They have determined those are the best conferences because those conferences played the best in the non-conference portion of the schedule, where teams from different conferences play each other. How else would they reasonably do that without it introducing the possibility of infinitely more bias?

(And as we’ve all said, this is all a good argument for non-con games being spread across the season)

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214

Recall both UT and Bama can be at the same location. Every location gets assigned two pods of four, but those pods don’t have to be from the same region.

East of the Mississippi, the opening round locations are Albany, Columbus, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Orlando. Others are Denver, Sacramento, and Des Moines.

Teams that will likely or could end up ahead of us in the pecking order:

Houston (real wild card here, as none of the locations are great. Birmingham the closest, but Orlando the easiest flight).
Purdue (likely to Columbus)
Tennessee (Greensboro or Birmingham, both about 4 hours away from Knoxville)
UCLA (Sacramento - closest or Denver - easiest flight)
Texas (same as Houston, maybe throw in Denver for an easy flight from Austin)
Kansas (Des Moines?)
Marquette (Des Moines or Columbus)
Baylor (ditto UT)
Creighton (Des Moines)
Xavier (Columbus, then maybe Albany)
St Mary’s (Sacramento)
Iowa State (Des Moines)
Miami (Orlando)

Anyways, we may be the only one who’ll prefer Greensboro aside from possibly Tennessee (as said, 50/50, may come down to what they feel their alumni base will travel best to). Hard to see anyone from the ACC aside from us playing their way onto the 4-line or better aside from Miami.

So then it just comes down to where we end up… 2-seed we’re definitely in G-boro. 4-seed we have to see how the 12+ teams ahead of us shake out, as that Big XII crunch will create some interesting dominoes, them + Houston will be fighting over the best of bad options, and maybe some end up in Greensboro.

The additional benefit here is that, assuming we get G-boro and the other top seed is someone other than UT, tickets won’t be in crazy demand, like they would be if Duke or Carolina had the other pod. Which, btw, no way the NCAAT gives a pod headlined by, say, a 2-seed Big XII team to G-Boro, only to have a “home” team like Duke, UNC, or State hiding down on a 7-line.

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215

Maybe it’s just me, but being a 1 seed makes me nervous (no reason). Odds of winning it all aside, a 2 or 3 seed seems like it would generate a little less spotlight and a little more chip on the shoulder.

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216

If we run the table, that means we’d be the ACC regular season and tournament champ, with a 29-4 record. Lundardi wouldn’t have the balls to put us at a #3 seed with that resume. Give me fucking a break.

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217

Why do we even care what Lunardi thinks? I’m moderately interested in what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks, but even then, I care more about the matchups than the actual seed. But Lunardi? Whatever he says or does is literally meaningless. He could say Virginia is a #9 seed, and it wouldn’t change a damn thing.

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218

UVa blurb from Seth Davis’s anonymous coaches article:

First, his description:

Last week, I spoke with nine coaches, both head coaches and assistants, from three power conferences, and I asked them to give me their intel on the top teams in their league. I granted all of them anonymity so their assessments would be honest and unmerciful.

Then the Virginia portion:

“Their defense is still their staple, but their guys are so smart individually as defenders that they don’t have to rely as much on their pack line. You want to make Kihei Clark be a scorer. He wants to facilitate. Make him finish inside because he’s always looking to dump off. Armaan Franklin has gotten a lot better. He’s so physical and aggressive, so you have to put someone physical on him and keep him out of the paint. Ben Vander Plas really makes them different because he can play inside and out. I’m not sure people realize that Tony Bennett starts three transfers. They’re not as big when they’re not playing their five-man so you can get some offensive rebounds. They’re not going to take bad shots and they’re not going to turn it over. A veteran, physical team will bother them.”

Pay link:

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219

I can’t unhear this.

Bennett Vander Plas looked out / on the Feast of Stephen….

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What makes this team different from last year’s?

We can survive subpar offensive performances from more than one guy — someone is usually there to pick them up.

Tonight, Clark and Franklin (16-23, 39 pts) picked up Beekman and McKneely (4-18, 8 pts).

Gardner, Beekman and Shedrick picked up Clark and Franklin vs. NC State.

And so on.

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