Blog post. But might as well start this thread topic anyway. Bound be a subject of convo in the weeks ahead.
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Is there a reason you didnāt mention Traudt? Are you assuming heāll have limited impact next year?
In general, I think itās a lot to ask for the type of freshmen we get to contribute year 1 (and if they do, itās a bonus) but feels like he deserves a mentionā¦
No he just didnāt fit into what I was talking about. More about the season of current players relate to next season. Traudt will play.
Edit: After 3 people mentioning that Iām gonna throw his name in there somewhere LOL
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This all seems very fair and well considered. The note about MiliÄiÄ or Murray potentially transferring - while I realize you are likely not hinting at anything specific and just generally commenting on how anyone can transfer - does make me sad. Of course, we all know itās a possibility, itād just be frustrating. Itās been debated on LRA to the point that the dead horse has been beaten into a fine powder, but it is really too bad they didnāt manage to snag consistent rotation minutes. I genuinely thought one of them would.
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Nice article. A few thoughts/reactions:
āBut neither were able to establish themselves in the rotation once conference play started.ā
- if I were writing, Iād say Tony didnāt put them in the rotation. Because it puts the person doing (or not doing) the action more prominent. Did they not play because (1) they actually canāt shoot/score that well (considering tradeoffs) or (2) because Tony made a mistake? I canāt say, but I think people are too quick to dismiss #2. Tony is a human, and one thing Iāve noticed about humans is that they screw up ALL. THE. TIME. Even (and sometimes especially) when theyāre paid multiple millions to not screw up. (This is basically my pet peeve about āearning PTā which treats PT as some sort of neutral, objective standard for which the coach is just a neutral arbiter ā which IMO is a silly way to think about PT, and ignores normal human emotions, biases, and blind spots, not to mention idiosyncratic views about tradeoffs).
ā Itās a tough adjustment for freshmen coming from overseas, much less to play for Tony Bennett.ā
- Iām skeptical that itās any tougher than for US kids. Agree with the second part, perhaps (tougher for Tony). Iād throw this into the same bucket as above ā Tonyās making a judgment call.
ā Fans tend to write off young players prematurely.ā
- I agree we write them off early, but itās rarely premature. Our guards and wings who succeed here almost always contribute right away. Iām not aware of any precedent for a guard who didnāt contribute at all his first two years, and then became a solid role player. Even Kody was a big contributor his second year.
ā[Lack of athletic combo forward when playing small ball is] a tricky situation for them to address in terms of roster management.ā
- Folks got mad at you for not mentioning Traudt? Iām just absolutely Dunn promoting my guy. Someone else is going to have to do it.
ā For me, the biggest lesson of this season was that experience in Bennettās system is part of the system.ā
- Whatās the delta between our end of year team and and our full-year, likely NIT team? I think the end of year team is playing more like a 9-seed or so. I know there are some gerrymandered efficiency stats that might put us higher, but Iām skeptical. So then the problem for me with relying too much on this yearās roster for next year is that (1) we are too reliant on frosh to give us more perimeter shooting punch, (2) even if they do, whatās the ceiling? 5-seed? And (3) wouldnāt playing like that cap the following year, because we didnāt give enough PT to our younger guys (just like this year).
Pivoting off that thought, two more generic reactions:
- Iām on an island on this (at least wrt Jayden), which yes, does give me some pause, but I still see Franklin and Jayden as gap fillers. I donāt see them as foundational parts of our next big run. So, at least to a certain extent, minutes that go to them are replacing minutes that could be going to guys that will be foundational parts.
- So, if the starting lineup is shaping up as Reece, Franklin, Jayden, Papi/Shed and probably Isaac M, remind me what the plan is to fix perimeter shooting? (Knowing we are losing Kiheiā¦) Hope Armaan had a blip? Hope Reece can shoot at volume? Hope a true frosh can shoot at a high level, even if heās the only shooter? It just seems like a lot of hopeā¦
Basically, I still think this roster is more of a tear down than a fixer upper. Build around Reece and Shed, everything else is up for grabs over the summer, in official practice, and through the noncon.
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at the same time, i think we all KNOW Tony didnāt promise them minutes and probably had conversations that were like āwe think you have a ton of potential, likely will take a year or two to learn the system and get used to college basketball, so donāt think youāre coming in to get consistent minutes in year oneā.
I also understand that whatever was said, they both sat on the bench watching us frequently struggle on offense and probably thought ālet me get in an get bucketsā. So i see both sides, but hopefully Tony will reiterate his initial message to them and show all the examples of how waiting has worked out for us (Dre, Devon Hall, etc.)
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Youāve got a typo here. Extra āsā. There is only one (guard/wing) example. For me, the lesson on Dre was that he was clearly good enough to contribute the year he was redshirting (as Tony himself has admitted) and therefore shouldāve been playing.
i think Devon Hall is a good example. he maxed out his abilities by his last year (his NCAAT showing notwithstanding). youāre right that Dre is maybe even a ābadā example.
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Is there any chance a lineup with Jayden, Traudt and Kadin/Papi can work? Basically let Traudt play the 3 on offense and Jayden the 3 on defense is my idea. Thought Jayden showed he might be able to do it on the defensive end by the end of this year.
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Iām all for ideas that get another shooter out there. Itās sort of an intriguing idea because you could (theoretically) play the mismatch depending on how teams guard it. If you put a little on Traudt, he can post up. If a big, then he can shoot (problem with the former is a cluttered lane, plus we generally donāt go after mismatches).
I think itās an interesting idea, and itās worth a shot, but my general view is that would mean a more cluttered lane and weād lose some quicks in our perimeter D. Though Traudtās defense is a wildcard, at least for me, at this point.
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Jayden was a 3rd team all-ACC, led the team in scoring in and rebounding on 50% shooting, and vastly improved on defense by the end of the regular season. So Iām one of the many you cite who wouldnāt consider him to be a āgap filer,ā and Iām glad heāll likely be back next season. Also glad that Franklin will be back too, as we will need his veteran presence, and, who knows, maybe heāll have a great senior year like several other players under Tony have had. With improvement from the returning starters and good contributions from 1st and 2nd year players, I can easily see a much improved team next year. But Iām admittedly a very Pollyannaish-type fan, who figures the playing time worked out the way it did this season because Tony went with who he felt was ready during ACC play and knows better than I do.
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Like I said, I realize Iām on an island with my Jayden position. I think more might agree on Armaan. All the returners will improve if given more PT, my questions are just (1) how much, and (2) at what cost?
Another way of looking at it: we need to be good at three-point shooting to be good. Jayden and Armaan take up two slots (2/4) from which teams can expect/hope for good 3-pt shooting. They are either bad shooters or non shooters. Our 1 is mostly a non-shooter. Our 5 is a non-shooter. So that leaves one slot for a shooterā¦ (or as I said in my original post ā let the plan be āhopeā)
Let me anticipate the rebuttal here: UVa needs to be good at three point shooting to be good. Lots of non UVa teams that play differently (crash the offensive boards, points in transition, dribble drive) can rely on different things to be good, but we donāt do those things and we wonāt do those things, so Iām very skeptical of a theory of the case in which UVa is good that doesnāt involve very good three point shooting (and itās highly unlikely that Armaan/Jayden will contribute to good three point shooting)
I agree with you that they wonāt be part of our next run (maybe a 5th year Franklin, but I doubt he sticks around for that).
It comes down to the philosophical question of what are Coach Bennettās and the teamās goals? Is it championships or bust? Unless you have a team capable of a championship run, develop for the future at the expense of wins today? Is it do as well as you possibly can this season and worry about next season later? Is it concentrate only on winning the next game in front of you?
If itās championships or bust, why play Perrentes so much in 17? That team certainly had a ceiling. Key/Diakite in 20 and Huff/Hauser in 21? Anyone paying attention could see how flawed both of those teams were. Iām intentionally not going to talk about Clark here.
Maybe in college, trying to win every game and doing the best your team can do each season is the goal. Every team changes from season to season and maybe the guys want to enjoy it with the guys they play with, live with and spend most of their time with. Each season has a different group of guys with different relationships and chemistry.
Playing for next year or 2 years from now sounds like a plan, but is that fair to the guys who wonāt be on those teams? They put in their time and earned PT too. Do you maintain the trust of your players if you sit them when itās their turn? Especially if youāve been selling them on the idea that theyāre not seeing the floor now, but if they work hard and improve, theyāll be in a position to earn time after senior X graduates. Then they see some Freshman who didnāt have to go through what they did see court time at their expense. Iām pretty sure I wouldnāt want to play for that coach.
This idea works in the NBA. Guys in the league are paid and know the deal. The stars youāre developing and building around will be on the next good team and role players are more fungible. I donāt think youāll get a lot of buy-in in college though.
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Good response, and thereās a lot of food for thought here. I wonāt spill too much virtual ink, except to note that itās all a balance. And this year, we seemed to put the balance too much on a near-sighted approach, and I generally think Tony has struck a better balance in the past, and I hope he strikes a better balance in the future than 4 returning starters next year would imply.
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Can see why you have this opinion but this is a very debatable one in Armaanās case. We can qualify it all we want but he shot 40%+ on 4 attempts per game in the Big Ten. If he can do it one season the potential to do it again is there. Even if he splits the difference between last year and this year thatās a guy who can contribute to 3 point shooting as long as he isnāt THE guy being relied on for it.
I think he will be better if he gets to shoot more on the move and if he is playing next to a good volume shooter. Iām still a bit skeptical as to the ceiling (or likely outcome), but Iād be happy to be wrong.
There is 100 percent chance that Jayden tells us how much he has been working on his three point shot acter this summerā¦
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I guess it depends on your definition of āgoodā as well. I will be surprised if Armaan doesnāt shoot 33%+ next year. Which is good enough to be efficient and open space for others. But I will also be surprised if he gets to that 38%+ range to actually be a dangerous shooter.
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A lot to chew on here, but my zoomed-out take is that when it comes to looking at how the team needs to improve next year, we are all not talking enough about the defense compared to the offense, given how the team has performed this year. Specifically, how will this team rebound better next year? I am optimistic on that, as the rotation has a chance at getting a little bigger and more athletic next year, but thatās the biggest hole on this team in my view.
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I hope he does! He has the tools to be a good shooter!
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