At the opposite ends of the spectrum, two other intriguing long shots that @kendall orginally brought up
Aldrich would be stepping up a couple rungs, but has an interesting background and UVa ties (law school). He’s made the tourney 2 of his 6 years by winning the Big South tourney twice. That’s impressive! At a school that hadn’t made the tourney once in the previous 15 years (and maybe beyond, just looking at KenPom era).
It’s probably a year or two early for Schertz, but I feel like he’s going places. He had a long and impressive tenure at a D2, and a short and impressive tenure at Indiana St. He never made the tourney in 3 years, but steadily improved, and came within a bucket of winning the NIT last year (some thought they belonged in the tourney last year, but the team that got in over them erased all doubts in the first four … cough cough).
I’d look at two attributes. Winning semi-consistently and player retention. You don’t hold it against guys if they lose players, but it is notable when they retain players who could have left (which is why Dusty May became a great candidate, and not just a good candidate).