Otz but he’s probably not leaving (even more probably not than Shaka), although Goodman thinks Indiana has a shot
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Shaka, Otz, Byington are the three home run hires IMO. I guess Scott Drew or similar would also be a home run.
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I think they’re useful but you need to understand what they are and what they aren’t. Analytics are only as useful as the quality of data feeding them.
It’s also important to be aware of the context that coaches know what will result in better analytical outcomes and specifically coach to that. Aka Saint Mary’s will run up the score in the final seconds of a blowout if they can because according to KenPom/Torvik all possessions are of equal value. Also we saw how the B12 got cute with scheduling to effective rig analytical outcomes for its teams.
Again, they’re useful but it can’t be the only thing you look at.
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I think that is okay to think cynically about the analytics at the margins. But to be honest, most teams are not in a position to “rig” the analytics. All but a few teams are just trying to win games every night. So yes, Marquette being 35 and VCU being 33 does not mean that VCU is the way better team. But it still holds in general categories of teams such that we probably don’t want to hire guys who have never had a team in the top-100.
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Yeah. So we have the very unlikely home runs, and then meh guys like Odom, Pitino, etc. so another argument for RIB is that it’s a crappy pool this offseason. If RIB face plants after a year or 2, maybe much better candidates will be in play
Edit: going to refrain from just arguing in circles with the odom hates
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This pool only looks mediocre because we’ve been picking it apart all season. The only slam dunk mid major guy last year was Dusty May, and we wouldn’t have gotten him if he was available this year. The other changes last year were beat the posse out of town or guys with thinner resumes than the ones we’re looking at now.
Kelsey and Pope’s resumes were no better than what’s available to us now, we just have to make a decision and live with it. Ron is giving up.
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Odom would be a better hire than Pat Kelsey, Mark Pope, Hubert Davis, Kyle Neptune, Todd Golden at the time of those hires.
edit: @tonyburnertt beat me to the punch. How well resourced we allow the next coach to be may be just as important as the next hire
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analytics can be ‘gamed’ a little, but it’s not gonna be far off. The algorithms used involve a ton of intricacy. Like if a team is 40th in the country, maybe if they’ve blown out teams to the last second instead of subbing in their walkons they’d be 35ish but they aren’t gonna be 20th.
if you’ve been following VCU in the metrics for example, they’ve been completely demolishing their last couple opponents at home and have barely gone up.
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Yep. The crap happens not on the quality of data in, but afterward when people poorly interpret what they are seeing. They make the wrong meaning and it gives numbers a bad rap.
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also, I think people don’t completely understand that it is impressive to blow a team out by like 25+. The players/staff on the losing side have pride too and aren’t just gonna wanna get pummeled. I remember watching Stoudamire at GT say after a blowout loss (where they made a little bit of a late comeback) that “one of the easiest things to do is make a 15-0 run when your’re down 30”.
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Do we not still love those metrics? While they’re imperfect, I still treat them as the closest thing we have to “truth” when it comes to ranking team performance.
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Kyle Smith was the guy I wanted to hire if we had the chance last season. Is still my top choice no matter how unlikely.
I like Kyle Smith a lot! His resume is not a ‘can’t miss’ one to me though. I would have been thrilled with the hire last year or this year.
There were lots of good coaches in last year’s cycle, but I don’t think you can claim that cycle was better than this ones.
Hiring another good coach from Wazzu would be very funny though.
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A weird thing happened with discussion of Odom. It seems to me like conventional fan wisdom, from the start, was that “Odom wants the job; he’s ours if we want him.” And that, by definition, made him our “floor” (“fallback”, “safety pick”) – all of which convey vibes of “meh”.
But whether he’s your preference or not, I think he’s solidly in the tier of the coaches we want to be looking at (apart from one or two low-probability candidates that we take a swing at).
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I’ll admit to being guilty of this. It felt like we were just handing it to him, and his open availability made me want him less. I’m coming around on him though. (Still want to make Shaka and Byington say no first though)
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Mine too, 04
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I thought consensus was that Shaka’s not going anywhere because the new AD is his guy.
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You should still call IMO. We’re a better job than Marquette.
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