šŸ€ Next Basketball Head Coach Speculation Thread

It was the media! Oh crap I should’ve known it was them all along!

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I don’t really think you canā€gameā€ the KenPom algorithm tho lol

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Kenpom also isn’t on the NCAA team sheets IIRC

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Probably relatively minor in the sports realm of bad bahavior. Was a little cagey when arrested but handled it pretty well thereafter. Makes you wonder though was he DUI only once or was he only caught once. And in the context of fatalities and ruined lives, it can be pretty unforgivable. Sleep it off or get an Uber.

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Agree with that. I thought Gonzaga the institution let him off too easily. I think Few made a really dumb decision, but the public record at least seems to indicate it was a one-off.

This is all a hypothetical because it won’t happen, but I suspect UVa has a policy about similar previous infractions for athletic department employees and they should probably just follow that policy, or have a good justification for a waiver of the policy, or whatever.

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Maybe gaming is the wrong word but you can certainly coach (& schedule) in a manner to maximize your efficiency rating. Generally that is a good thing all coaches should be doing to some extent, but certain coaches do it to an extreme and by doing so, make the data less meaningful/accurate.

Hell I’m a very big Eric Olen fan but it’s obvious he’s doing it (he’s even said so publicly). If a team builds a 20 point lead and decides to burn clock to win the game, does it make it any worse of a performance than a team who tries to win by 40? No, it’s an intentional decision but one that is specifically rewarded or punished by per possession efficiency analytics.

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Emotional 20 year olds are often the best decision makers.

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I think that non-P5 teams basically have little control over their resumes once conference play starts, besides:

  1. winning every game or most of them (which is a minor boost to KPI, SOR, etc)
  2. beating teams by many more than they’re supposed to (which is a decent boost to Kenpom, NET, Torvik and in the old days - Sagarin)

So the good coaches try to do that. And the trend has gotten worse with bloated P5 schedules (eg ACC moving to 20 games, others doing the same).

But the resume metrics are meant to balance the efficiency metrics. It’s not a perfect system. I think more games across conferences, across time periods (Jan/Feb), in both home and away venues is one way to make it better, but I doubt we get there as long as networks and schools are making scheduling decisions. You’d need a third party…

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This has less of an effect on T-Rank, which includes average margin over the course of the game in addition to the margin at the end of the game when calculating adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, and takes garbage time out of this metric.

I’m skeptical the blowout dynamic has much of an effect on rating systems that use uncapped scoring margins and think that if you cap the scoring margin ā€œcountedā€ by the system in order to prevent perceived blowout effects, you make the system less predictive. See here:

https://kenpom.com/blog/evidence-that-scoring-margin-matters/

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I mean, if Greg Sankey and the boys didn’t want to act like pigs at the trough constantly, then there’d be less need for efficiency metrics in the first place.

But it’s hard for me to boo-hoo about the few non-P5 ā€œhavesā€ benefiting from efficiency metrics which are trying to do an impossible task: measure a big win against Little Sisters of the Poor against a close loss to Big State.

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I could go on on this subject but probably best to get back to predicting who will be on Coach Odom/Pitino’s staff at UVA.

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Prediction:

Pitino keeps J-Willy

Odom keeps Coach O (several years at Charlotte together, called Coach O his brother)

I predict Curtis plus one of Zay, Chase, and Kyle stays under either of them (and maybe whoever else)

Haven’t looked at Pitino’s staff, but Odom has two lifers plus two VCU guys, I think (actually two and one, maybe they didn’t add the 4th, or have him/her labeled differently)

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Pitino has an AHC, Isaac Chew, who appears to have spent some time in Blacksburg. I would think he might come along in some capacity.

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jesus, I don’t think I’ve fully grasped that Pitino could actually be the hire.

I’ll admit, my reluctance towards him as a candidate is mainly emotional because his resume as a candidate is similar to Odom. But at the end of the day sports fandom is an emotional endeavor and I absolutely do NOT want him.

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It’s weird that Chew was on Buzz’s staff at VT, left for A&M, but then wasn’t retained at A&M when Buzz arrived. I know Buzz is a weird guy but that’s really odd.

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I’m with you there. They’re about the same to me, but I would rather give the tie to Odom with more ties to the area.

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also at what point does hiring Odom become a no brainer for the admin? Like if VCU runs the table in the regular season and tournament, as well as wins a game in the tourney that would put him at 30-6. If he finishes 30-6 or better I just feel like there’s no way you can’t hire him (outside of poaching a higher profile name)

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They gotta keep Saliba. He’s been here since the Stone Age.

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If he makes the second weekend of the tourney I think he is almost certainly our coach barring Shaka wanting the job.

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Good point, but one of these days, we have to let the man retire and hang up his tape

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