And that was really the entire point of the post
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I think for me, it boils down to this: Get this team to the Tournament [as an at-large, not from a miracle run in the ACCT], have the interim tag removed and offered a 4-year contract at around $2.5MM/yr (should rank in the mid 50’s nationally) for a longer-term, program-maintainer trial run.
Miss the Tournament, trigger the national search.
We’ll know which direction it’s tilting by Februrary 1st, if not sooner. We don’t know on November 13th.
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For me, make the tourney and lose in game 1, feels like a 60% proposition. More likely than not he stays, but the details will matter a lot (player development, vibes, what’s going in the athletic dept generally, how the other candidates look and what their agents are saying)
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I know his press conferences have become kind of meme-able around here, but I’ve really liked the meat of what he’s saying. Generally says what he’s thinking without too much coach speak and he seems to get it. I have no idea if it’s going to work though. I have some pretty big concerns about our depth and maybe our actual talent, so he could be the next John Wooden and this season could still be a turd.
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Yes. Totally agree. I just want stability sooner than it is too late
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60%?!?!?!
So if Ron does what Tony did most seasons, he’s only 60% to keep the job? I’d say making tourney puts him at 90% to keep the job. Remember this is a roster that was built for next season so making the tournament this year is the test. Pass the test and keep the team together for a run next year. Fail the test and blow the whole thing up.
And again; with uncertainty at the AD spot, the odds are in Ron’s favor. I’m starting to believe he’s here next year no matter what.
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His latest presser was by far his best one.
I think HGN pointed this out, but it depends on who is available/interested in the job from the national search.
For example, if Ryan Odom is having a very good season at VCU and they’re on track for a 7 seed or better in the NCAAT and he has indicated serious interest the job. Both of which I would say are fairly likely, the bar for Ron should be significantly higher than if there’s little to no inbound interest.
Also, the risk of players leaving is probably slightly lower than it was in a lot of other scenarios where players have followed their coaches to new schools. I don’t see any of our players following Ron to a mid-major school.
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That’s correct. My prior on this is that Ron and Tony are two different people in two different situations.
If your understanding is different, please let me know. If Ron is really Tony wearing a Ron meat suit, or if we have a Nic Cage Face/Off situation here, please let me know.
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Just riffing off this - Tony’s timing made us pick between (1) a year of instability, or (2) a guy who’s head coaching tenure has been kinda okay, not great.
I would’ve preferred different timing! But we got what we got. And given the choice, I’d still pick one year of instability over 2-3 years of having a not ideal choice foisted upon us.
I’m all in favor of seeing what we have with Ron at the end of the season! But the cost of Tony’s timing is a year of instability. For me, that’s been baked in.
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Oh for sure. TB boned us no doubt
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Just one more point on this: Tony’s comms on this seem to have been really effective!
Prior to Tony retirement, I thought this roster looked promising in year two, but a lot had to go right:
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- Have a core emerge from IMac, Blake, Saunders, TJP, a PG (at least a back-up to Mallory), and maybe one of our young guys (I didn’t see Cofie being this good - so that’s great). And not just a “these our starters” core, but a “these our starters who could make a tournament run” core
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- Have Elijah come back healthy and looking good
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- Mallory ready to contribute
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- Get another true frosh contributor (Ament?) or a portal contributor. At least one and probably two
Even with Tony, that’s a still fair amount to go right! Without Tony, to be honest, I’ve more or less put it out of my head, because it’d be a really tough thing for even Ron to manage:
- It will be harder for Ron than for Tony to keep that core.
- Should be the same
- No longer committed! I still think he’s better off coming here, but we shall see
- Odds of Ament have likely fallen from 5% to zero. Any other frosh will be tough, given the interim label. Portal is TBD…
TLDR - two year window concept for me, is more or less DOA at this point. But I’m a pessimist
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I am starting to disagree that Ron can not keep em together. But i know your eyes lie to you all the time
Dai Dai playing lot and playing well actually maybe the key
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To add to this, one year of instability (and it’s not even a year - it’s like 6 months) will not meaningfully set our program back. This seems particularly true in this new era where you can flip whole rosters and restock the cupboard very quickly after a coaching change.
What will set our program back is making the wrong hire and being locked into a mediocre coach for 3 or 4 years. That would actually do damage. Obviously we can recover from it (the odds of any coaching hire panning out are like 50-50 or worse) but that could affect our long-term trajectory.
So I don’t think any decision should be made quickly for the sake of stability. We’re trying to hire somebody who ideally would be our coach for 10 or 15 years if things go well. A single recruiting class or a few players on the current roster I don’t think should really influence things at all.
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Also, “two year plan” in this environment always felt like a little bit of wishful thinking, no matter what Tony thought. I don’t even necessarily mean that in a negative way. What if people over perform and go pro before expected? Dunn last year…maybe now Cofie? (Obviously way too soon on that one).
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I understand why it was done and maybe it’s not that big a deal, but I thought it was kind of strange during the pre-game introductions on Monday night that the PA announcer introduced Sanchez as “Interim Coach Ron Sanchez.” Sounded weird. I guess just a constant reminder …
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Yes. Thats Fing terrible
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This is just an awesome response. Thank you for this visual. And for the laugh. Hahahahaha.
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More BS from Carla
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If you post nonsense like this 60 more times this month, I would place the odds of you getting banned permanently at 62.8%. Between 58-59 more times and I’d lower the odds to 61.3%. Below 58 more times (haha as if) I’d put the odds at 10.3145%. 61 times and you’re done.