Post-ACC Tourney Malaise

Men's Basketball
41

I think you’re exactly right. Next years team will look a lot like this years team. Will be. A little better because we’ll have better subs and the starters will be a little more practiced and seasoned which will help in a bunch of little ways that will add up to more than it seems like it would but still will leave the team far short of great. I’m thinking solid shot at a double-bye in the ACC tournament and probably an 8 or 10 seed in NCAA tournament.

The year after THAT is when it’ll be time to start getting optimistic.

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42

No, I’m saying that if we’d made the NCAA tournament this year we’d have had a clearly better last 3 years than all but 2 of those teams.

Is Kentucky better than us this year? Obviously.
Was Kentucky better than us last year when we won the ACC and they went 9-16? No.

Edit - My point is that people totally forget other teams have ups and downs too.

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43

I think Armaan’s playing time next year is going to depend on two things: (1) his shooting, and( 2) do we have better options. You could see that in the ACC tournament, where he averaged around 26 minutes a game because his shooting was truly awful (hopefully, that was somewhat due to his turf toe), but we didn’t have any great alternatives, so he still played over half the game. I’m not in the Tony is too stubborn camp to play freshmen who can contribute once we get to ACC play-- there’s too much evidence from prior years to the contrary. I do think first year players very much need to prove that Tony can trust you against ACC competition based on practice and how you do in pre-conference play. I thought Taine, Igor, and Carson all had good moments in the early games, but obviously Tony saw deficiencies that kept them well behind Armaan, Kody, etc., as opposed to Reece, Morsell, Jerome, and Guy recently.

Next year, I’m hopeful, but not overly optimistic that Armaan’s shooting will improve. He’s had one great season and two horrible ones shooting 3s. So that makes for a 33% chance he shoots great next season, I guess? :smiley: For me, anyway, there is a dearth of information on whether there will be good alternatives to Armaan if he’s not shooting well again. Returning player development and transfers in and out are unknown, and I’m really bad at predicting how much our freshmen will contribute their first year, no matter how many high school highlight films I watch. I do think if Armaan is not shooting well and there are good alternatives, his minutes will drop below 30 per game and maybe well below.

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44

Worth bearing in mind that (I haven’t confirmed, but I think this is true) Franklin shot my 3s this year than his Fresh and Soph year combined, so I’m not optimistic about him shooting even 33%.

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45

I don’t forget that teams have down years. Kentucky and Duke were terrible last year. And this year they are both Final 4 caliber. To compare us vs. programs that take 6 months to reload from terrible to top 10 teams is ???

46

I’d be interested to see a stat of total NCAAT games played per program from say 2012 (first NCAAT with Tony) or 2014 if we want to start with our big run. I’m guessing Gonzaga would lead that stat, but I think we’ve gotta be pretty high up there. We didn’t have a great season at all and we certainly need to recruit/build the roster better, but I’m confident the 2022 class will have us back to being a legit top 25 program and hopefully back in the top 10 for a sustained period of time

Edit: don’t think the 2022 class will get us back to that standing next season, but they will in 2023-2024

47

Here’s wins:
Here are the top 11 teams in the country since 2010 when Tony arrived at UVA… by way of comparison UVA has 13 NCAA Tournament wins in that span - 11 of those 13 wins were in 3 seasons. Outside of those 3 years the postseason has not been good. How can that be corrected?

FLORIDA GATORS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 18

Final Four appearances: 1

WISCONSIN BADGERS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 19

Final Four appearances: 2

VILLANOVA WILDCATS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 21

Final Four appearances: 2

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 21

Final Four appearances: 3

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 22

Final Four appearances: 2

SYRACUSE ORANGE

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 22

Final Four appearances: 2

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 24

Final Four appearances: 2

KANSAS JAYHAWKS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 25

Final Four appearances: 2

GONZAGA BULLDOGS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 25

Final Four appearances: 2

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 26

Final Four appearances: 2

KENTUCKY WILDCATS

NCAA Tournament wins since 2010: 31

Final Four appearances: 4

48

I don’t think it needs massive correction. Definitely need better players and hopefully the 2022 class helps with that. We had a sweet 16, elite 8, and championship all in a 6 year span. That is extremely good for every program, maybe outside of a few blue bloods. We had pro talent all over those rosters, that’s the only missing piece that I see. I have no worries about our system and the past NCAAT results it produced, only worries are whether we reach that prior talent level again. I’ll take those NCAAT results over a 6 year period any day

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49

The key lineup question for next year: Is Franklin de facto presumed starter getting 30+ minutes per game? If so, our offensive upside will remain severely limited.

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50

I agree, I expect the same or possibly slightly worse season next year if Franklin has the same role/minutes

51

I don’t think he should be / I don’t think he will be.

Reece should be inked in.
Kadin should be penciled in.

I think everything else should be up for grabs through the early part of the ACC.

The only difference between what I want (above) and what I think we will get (what Tony will do), is that if Jayden comes back, he will be inked in.

Jayden is tough for me. I think he could score 15+ on a decent UVa team, but next year I want see some more athleticism and/or perimeter scoring in that spot. If we don’t have that? Then more Jayden.

52

Oh we’ll have it alright. Just don’t know if they’ll be on the floor or on the pine.

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53

You really don’t think Armaan is automatically penciled in as a starter with 30+ minutes a game? When was the last time a veteran guard came back and didn’t play major minutes as an upperclassman? I don’t know I’m genuinely asking haha.

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54

Guy and Jerome surplanting Thompson and Shayok. Joe Harris’ first season? Kihei starting right away over Marco but Marco was barely veteran though. Reece over Woldo after woldo played a lot the year before.

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55

Woldo? Still played, but lost minutes to Reece and Murph

56

That’s a really great point. I actually thought he should’ve gotten more run last year but that’s a conversation for another day.

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57

I feel terrible, but until just now I forgot Woldo was here for two years. I remember watching his absurdly sweet shot from his JUCO highlight reel and getting really psyched…… ah well.

58

Rick Lewis generic inspirational quote of the day sides with the “critics/haters”

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59

It’s a fair point. See how Jabri and Justin have done since they moved on. Tony was seeing how they performed in practice.

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60

So much has changed since Fresh and I played. The early season games were always against inferior opponents unless you went to the Great Alaskan Shootout or Maui invitational. Also had the Big East/ACC challenge which was unique at the time. But most games were against sub-par opponents. Coaches used that time to get starters back in the groove, but more importantly, to evaluate the 6-9 guys that didn’t start. It was important for them and important for us as role players. And we always won those games except when we played UNO at home and they surprised us. Our starters took care of business and the non- starters got some run. And after 3-5 of those games the rotation would get set. It’s different now I think as mid majors are better and that evaluation period is gone

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