I fully agree with everything you say, but I do want to quibble with this a bit. Speaking at least personally, I made a conscious decision to limit this discussion a bit down the stretch because it was clear we weren’t going to change and I think changing by late Jan, early Feb. would have killed our small chance to make the tourney.
But, tbh, I think NOW is the time to revisit. Season is still fresh in our minds…
I think another factor is that Tony got himself caught in “oh crap, I need to win now” mode even as early as the Navy game. And that once he leaned into that mode, the script was more or less written. The young guys didn’t get 10+ minutes in any games but the cupcakes, which meant they weren’t ready to contribute come ACC play, which meant they didn’t play. They and Tony got caught in a bad feedback loop… Or maybe they stink! (I don’t discount that possibility either)
Yup, I agree. Best case scenario was probably one of those Dayton play-in games.
This is a point I’d love to explore more. I fully agree I think CTB backed himself into a corner, and honestly I’m not sure if I would have done any different. It’s the perfect storm of a few things, the Navy game happens, and it’s oh sh&t I don’t have what I thought I had, then you double down to right the ship and you realize this thing is further off course than I realize. And by the time you slowly round the corner it’s Jan and then you have a chance so do you chase it? (he did) or do you go the opposite way. Both have massive implications. While I can appreciate wanting to play and train youth. You also have to respect your vets. If they are used to going 30 a game and running the show, and all of a sudden in Jan you pull the plug and say welp this aint working it sends a horrible message to everyone about the program.
The funny thing is, Tony being one of the best coaches in the country probably masks the significant issues with talent on the roster more than would be the case almost anywhere else. For most coaches, this roster is probably like 0.500 level team or slightly above. But because Tony is so good at what he does, he got it into the bubble convo. It’s a credit to Tony, although you’ve got to hope we figure out the talent piece of it quickly.
I’ve been guilty of this in the past, so I’ll throw up a poll:
Should this thread be just for transfer news (and speculation) and the postseason (or post-NCAA chances part of the season) evaluation stuff go elsewhere? I’ve been assuming folks wouldn’t be looking for actual transfer news yet, until after our last game, but you never know…
Without further ado:
Keep this thread for just transfer news (incoming/outgoing)
Postseason analysis fine if it may relate to transfers
Yeah, I’ve been thinking about this alot. I think Tony does more with less than any coach in the country.
That’s sort of self-inflicted though. His recruiting and evaluation has to be so perfect based on how we fill our rosters and his rigidity in system-ball.
Bad take alert…Tony also does less (or would do less) with top talent than most top coaches. As I was watching Houston play, I thought of all the minutes those guys would spend on the bench and/or bricks they’d put up in blocker-mover…
Honest question for the board. Do we want 2+ transfers out so that we can get a proven player(s) from the portal? My answer would be yes but that’s only because the young guys never got a shot. A proven high volume shooter would be fantastic. I would prefer a grad transfer to not impact the 2022s coming in that much.
This may be irrational, but I never feel like I want a transfer out. Even if they don’t contribute much here, they committed to Virginia and are part of the UVA community. I’d rather they all stay and get their degrees than go elsewhere, although I understand completely if they do go elsewhere for playing time. Again, maybe that’s not rational from a wins-losses perspective, but just where I am on the question.
I want them all to stay. I think between the 3Ms, Isaac^2, Bond, and Dunn we have guys with the skill sets (and size!) to cover the 3 main issues we had this year: shooting, wing defending, and rebounding. I just hope we don’t lose them AND not replace them in the portal. In this immediate transfer era you need 12-13 darts aimed at the target every season. Limiting scholarship players just deprives you of opportunities for a hit.
I personally don’t like transfers with the exception of taking a younger guy who wants a better program fit - sort of like Gill. To me, getting an upperclass transfer is recruiting over current guys. It suppresses opportunity for guys already in the program in a way they could not predict or have factored into their acceptance of a developmental path. I’m ok with bringing in a younger guy because they are on similar footing with younger guys within our program.
Where this gets challenging is when we lose our upperclassmen to transfer and lack experience. My default is to still go with guys from within and hasten their development. What became increasingly frustrating is the lack of developmental play for Murray and Milicic. If they transfer, we have another gap in the program. I fear they might not be noticeably better next year if they stay. Perhaps they will be better.
I think most people understood that this year was a rebuilding year and could live with a bubble team or less as long as we saw good development for the future. It is frustrating that we seemed to achieve neither short-term success nor clear development throughout the roster, even with a smaller roster than normal. If M&M come back much improved next year and getting good floor time, then I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Personally I don’t want us pursuing a transfer unless we have guys leave that factored into our long term calculus. What I mean by that is if Igor transferred I’d want to find someone to fill that spot long term and not some bandaid fix for one year. I guess what I’m trying to say is I don’t want anyone that’s going to take minutes away from next year’s freshmen but if we can get a guy that’s young and promising (with eligibility beyond ‘23) then I’m all for it IF we have guys leave. I’m not sure if any of that even makes sense but it’s Monday so I’m hitting send.
I agree with y’all in theory. I just wish Tony would play 10 guys. Next year will be unusual in that our roster seems pretty full and I think it will be impossible for Tony to limit the rotation. So what happens to the 3 M’s and 2022 class will be interesting…I love the 3 M’s and their upside. I hope my question did not give off the wrong impression. The roster construction part of this is tricky…
For me, it’s context dependent. I don’t know if I have a first principles answer. If we have an experienced team with a chance to do damage (like 18-19), let’s ride those 6 or so guys. But this year seemed more like a year where the context would’ve dictated the opposite (play lots of guys to find the combos that worked in games / not just in practice). Instead, it was mostly six guys (Kihei, Reece, Armaan, Jayden, Papi, Shed) with a fringe (Kody and sometimes Malachi). Next year also seems like a year where you’d think/hope that we’d experiment a ton throughout the early part of a season…