Yeah, interesting question. Might depend on his progress to graduation (4 semesters at Gtown, plus summers, plus 3 at UVaā¦) and the status of the second transfer in court.
Also, Iāll just throw a name out there b/c I watched too much Perk hoops a couple years ago ā Xaivian Lee could be a nice addā¦ (borderline draft candidate looking for a step up in competition, and maybe some defensive imprimatur? No worries from admission, b/c Ivy transfer)
I like to look at it in terms of minutes played, both career wise and (in the case of transfers) at UVA specifically. Obviously at this point weāre having to make estimations on how much guys will play down the stretch over the ~15 games remaining (11 regular season, then 2 each ACCT and NCAAT/NIT)
| McKneely | 1298MP to date + (35MPG * 15 gms) = 1823MP Projected |
| Rohde | 564MP to date at UVA / 1583MP career to date + (23MPG * 15 gms) = 909MP UVA / 1928 MP Career Projected |
| Harris | 173MP to date at UVA / 1897MP career to date + (12MPG * 15 gms) = 353MP UVA / 2077 MP Career Projected |
| Bond | 278MP to date + (10MPG * 15 gms) = 428MP Projected |
| Gertrude | 114MP to date + (5MPG * 15 gms) = 189MP Projected |
| Murray | 477MP to date + (10MPG * 15 gms) = 627MP Projected |
| Buchanan | 292MP to date + (12MPG * 15 gms) = 472MP Projected |
iMac and Rohde are going to be veterans, full stop, at that point. Murray and Bond off the bench will have good experience levels as backups. The experience questions then come at the 1, 4, and 5.
Point: Weāve made the Tournament and challenged for the ACC starting London, Kihei, and Reece in their respective freshman seasons, so I see reason to be cautiously optimistic Bliss can do the same. Weāll see at some point. Of course the debate will be what Harris can do either (a) not forced to be stuck as Reeceās backup and (b) hopefully at full health, and maybe heās the guy out of the gate instead.
At the 4-spot, have to hope weāll see someone at least competent in the Portal, as weāve seen with Gill, Key, Hauser, Murphy, Gardner, and BVP as transfer forwards over the years.
At the 5-spot, Blake will have a comparable amount of experience as Tobey had taking over the center spot his sophomore year, and way more than Salt did when he stepped in for Nichols as a RS Soph in 2016. Itās not ādominanceā level of experience, but pushing 500 MP is the threshold for ācompetent / not a liabilityā either.
The concern in the paint, at this point, is how much A-Rob and Cofie can be trusted as the primary backups. Maybe Bond is ready at that point to be a full time backup small-4? Do we need TWO transfer bigs, one of whom is another Groves type willing to be a placeholder backup? Thatās a big question facing the staff during the April cycle.
Those three guys all had the luxury of playing PG while taking about 11% of shots and playing next to multiple NBA guys, who took on the scoring load. Iām gonna yadda yadda past my feelings on iMac/Rohde/āportal forward to be named laterā but they probably wonāt be thatā¦ I think Bliss could be better offensively than London/Kihei/Reece, but next yearās team might need something considerably more from the PG position than what we needed from those guys.
The biggest concern for me, for next year, isnāt side courses; itās where is the entree? iMac? I hope so. He needs to get to the rim and/or score in the mid-range. He can get there ā¦ but heās not there yet.
We need another proven shooter to pair with IMAC. Having those 2 on the court together will open up our offense big time.
If Dante comes back, weāre not getting a transfer PG period. Dante and Bliss are your 2024-25 PGs at that point, full stop.
If Dante opts to grad transfer, then I think we can talk maybe about a transfer PG, but frankly I ready to get away from this whole ā2 transfer starters a yearā cycle weāve found ourselves in, itās killing us. Need to get better at promoting/developing from within.
Iām fine with that philosophy, but I think that means next year is a rebuilding year. Which wouldnāt be so bad, because I think the year following (25-26) is the culmination of the current roster / solid recruiting years. Mix Dante and Bliss at PG, but I just donāt see that guard rotation being able to do much. Plus itāll be a mostly rebuilt post rotation.
Grad/upper class transfer 4 to be named later? Typical internal candidates would be someone who is already higher-usage in a limited role, so that would be Bond or Eli, but qualitatively each has some things to improve to be able to take on that role. Then again, Reeceās usage steadily grew over the seasons, so maybe it is IMac growing into a lead role.
This is really, really solid analysis. Iām a big Bliss believerā¦ sometimes you can just see it with guys and he seems to be it to me.
Also yeah people really discount how much having experience in the system helps. @DFresh11 and I had a good convo about nuance the other day, especially within the BM sets. Once some of the guys (like iMac and Rohde and even Bond) learn how to come off screens and the different angles you can take to provide different looks theyāre going to be very good.
Going along with that Blakeās time on the court this year is invaluable. As long as he puts in the time and effort this offseason, he should be a key figure next year with ARob able to spot him some minutes. I tend to think both ARob and Cofie will be OK as backup bigs, but we should definitely be going for an absolute bucket 1 or 2 year guy to play the 4 spot should Dunn move on to the NBA.
Statistically / logically / comparatively, I think thatās the hope. But Iāve turned from an āiMac can get to the hoopā optimist in the preseason, to a āiMac wonāt be able to get to the hoop consistently, everā pessimist based on the 
test. Is that fair? Maybe not.
Upper-class transfer 4 hope: yeah, I hope so. But we donāt have a lot of precedent for that working out so well (transfer becomes go-to, impact scorer in year 1, and weāre good, under the current rules).
Quit making sense
The IMac-no-Reece numbers are weirdly good, both as a whole and individually for IMac (I think the lineup beat up on some Q4 comp though).
Just to sum up my thoughts on next year:
Which is why this is a āwin nowā year!
Third guard by committee was a thing in the 2015-16 season, right? I wasnāt really on message boards then, but I assume there were blood feuds born of Hall v. Shayok v. Thompson. Darius had a stretch early on where he was averaging 30 mpg before being a bit player by the end of the season.
Debates and discussions for sure. Some differences:
This is where I am. I just donāt see a Bliss/Dante, iMac, Rohde 1-3 doing it a level we need. My preferred is Bliss, Eli, iMac with Rohde coming off the bench, a high level transfer 4 and BB. Robinson with some good mins at the 5, Cofie hopefully is ready to give the same at the 4 and a mix of Dante, Rohde and Taine at 1-3. Sharma likely RS. I purposely left off Bond b/c I have no idea what to project for him. I love the potential of his game and all that he obv brings to the team but he may be the best transfer candidate. He might need a mid major where he can be a full time small ball 4.
For Perrantes, none of them were bonafide NBA guys going into the season. Lest we forget players do improve so weāll see. I dont recall Brogdon having any NBA buzz off the redshirt and Harris was deemed too slow I think (?). Weāll see how McKneely develops and if any of Rohde/Gertrude/Bond emerge after offseason developments.
I also think there is a non-zero chance Buchanan could take a 2nd year leap similar to what clemson saw with PJ Hall and Aamir Simms. And I think Bliss has a ābig time gamerā element to him that Kihei and Perrantes didnāt have right away + a redshirt year which is kinda unprecedented for a pg under Tony. Of course a gamble/far from a guarantee but an improved Buchanan and Bliss in pick n roll is something that you can build around to get to a 7 seed. Just having a playable center right off the bat, let alone one with some experience at UVA, will be huge.
I fear that you are correct, but I hope that it is not quite so certain. I would like to believe in a scenario where the staff recognizes that DH aināt it, and if CB is not ready they would go after a 1 year starter, even if that doesnāt strictly mean DH is pushed out. I think a really good PG would be the easiest position to integrate into āthe system.ā
Buy, yeah, youāre right.
You are right here also, of course. But still, if we donāt have a viable option to promote/develop, then we already have a pre-existing problem that needs to be addressed.
The reality is, I think, that we will be starting a transfer more often than not going forward. I wonder what % of P6 teams, or maybe letās say Kenpom top 75 teams, arenāt starting at least one transfer. I can think of 1 or 2, but I donāt follow outside the ACC that closely.
Sooooooo pay Reece.
Will also say if someone wants to get paid we best make the NCAA Tournament this year
having to play dante for serious minutes next year would be such a disaster