Virginia at Houston game thread

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JWILLY Show is live on Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/lockerroomaccessinc/videos/4690808024291509

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A buddy of mine is coming over to watch the UVA/Houston and UNC/Charleston games. According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, Charleston has a better chance to beat UNC than we have to beat Houston. That’s crazy-town.

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Interesting (to me) that Vegas seems to like us compared to the computers.

Computers are at 8 (Torvik) or 9 (KenPom). Vegas ranges from 6 to 8.5, but the median looks like 6.5.

Faith in us? Lack of faith in Houston? My guess is the latter.

I hope we ugly this one up. Unfortunately has some @Purdue 2019-2020 season potential

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Ahh “They went to Juco for like 7 years… sUCk.” @DFresh11 with the line of the night on the JWilly show.

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I think we’re going to have major issues scoring tonight. They’ll guard us harder than the first two opponents (obviously) and clog the paint with their big dudes. Slow, passive offense is gonna get us smoked. We better move with purpose, screen hard and be aggressive to the basket. I suspect we need 10+ 3s to win tonight and I doubt Carson or Taine will be ready for this stage. will put a lot of pressure on the starters. Not out of the question but the longball will have to be on. Another learning exp to benefit latter in the year…I hope. 68-55 Cougs

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St Lou Hoo with a pretty good preview:
https://hoosplace.com/2021/11/16/basketball/6549/

I disagree with some of his takeaways, but think this is mostly on point. We are going to need a lot of minutes from Shed/Gardner/Papi. But I disagree with his comment on 3s. I think I like our chances on hitting 3s over our chances of winning a slugfest.

This could be time to give the Kihei OR Reece plus 2 shooters lineup a lot of run, rather than the Kihei AND Reece plus one (streaky) shooter. Kihei + Reece + 2 posts = we can’t score. Can we win a slugfest at Houston? I don’t know…

Tbh, I have my doubts, too. But this raises a classic sports question: would you prefer the strategy that gives you like a 20% chance of a win (more shooters) but an 80% chance of a bad loss (10-15+) or the strategy that gives you 10% chance of a win (slugfest) but a 90% chance of a close loss.

I think coaches tend to prefer the close loss strategy. (Feel free to quibble on the percentages – more interested on the overall point)

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We played really bad that night. 25 points they had off of turnovers. But was still a pretty fun game. Hurts worse every year sonehow

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Really looking forward to Gardner tonight. He’s had some monster games against Houston. 21&15, 29&19…

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Anyone see Gardner’s ECU-Houston clips from the game ECU won? It was interesting to me to see that ECU often or mostly set him up on offense out on the perimeter.

Here are the highlights. You can see it esp. in the 1H:

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Gonna be interesting what happens tonight. I think Reece, Kadin and Papi are going to be in for a wild experience. Reece hasn’t seen the pressure and physicality that Houston brings, and they are going to challenge him to fight in the paint and take and make shots from deep. Kadin is gonna have to prove his toughness in a gritty game in the paint. Papi is up for the fight I think but he’s going to have to prove he can play smarter to avoid the extra fouls etc. I think Kihei has seen some of that physicality before and he has the chops for the fight, but he lacks the physicals. Jayden has seen Houston and had success and will be ready, Franklin has gone through MSU so he has an idea what to expect.

I believe this game comes down to who wants to be the aggressor.

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I’ll be happy with anything competitive. Would be demoralizing to get blown out, especially after the Navy loss. And yes I know it’s still really early and we won ACC last year after bad non con performance, but I just feel like we’re in need of a good showing after Ohio and Navy

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Personally worry about our bigs stamina tonight. Kadin has looked tired fairly quickly in both games. Gardner may play 47 minutes tonight.

Biggest key is box out everywhere and get defensive boards by committee. Need Kihei Reece and Arman to have a bunch coming back to the ball

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You can bet Kelvin the texter will have his squad hyped. They play pretty good defense. Need Franklin to hit some shots early.

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I still have some significant PTSD from our last couple of non-con nationally televised games.

Here’s hoping we don’t have another Purdue or Gonzaga embarrassment.

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I’m curious to see how it goes… they don’t have a lot of guys who can score, so it won’t be a Gonzaga type game.

They really only have guards that can score, Sasser and Edwards…. Plays a little into UVAs defensive strength.

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I bet we keep it close as long as we don’t get killed on the offensive boards. I think Sasser will be good enough to get them over the top anyways, though — looking forward to seeing if Tony decides to guard him with Reece or Kihei. I’ll take Houston to win, UVA to cover. 62-58. Armaan & Jayden combine for 30.

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Reece guards Sasser no doubt, he’s their best offensive player. The problem with Kihei honestly is that Edwards is to physical for him but he’s really not that great of an offensive player.

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We often say at work, what you have to believe. What would you have to believe for a Hoos win.

  • Grinder game
  • Houston doesn’t shoot lights out from 3
  • Reece checks Sasser
  • Jayden plus one other get double digits pts (or maybe it’s 2 others and that’s our problem all season)

What else?

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