I think you have once again mistaken this as a zero-sum interaction.
Pace metrics were created by the Kenpoms & Barttorviks of the world to establish a baseline to measure efficiency. If you think of it that way, it makes sense that ORs donāt reset possessions ā because itās a factor in calculating the efficiency of scoring every time down the court.
Of course, every OR has to follow a missed shot (a bad efficiency outcome)ā¦
The metric isnāt meant to show how many shots you were able to create (there are non-pace adjusted stats for that)ā¦the metric is used as an input to efficiency calcs.
You sound like my wife. Not every question is a precursor to an argument. Iām just curious where that coefficient came from when he used a different one a few years earlier and itās over a decade since, so is it still the same?
Iām also curious about how offensive and defensive pace are disaggregated or calculated such that they differ since a teamās offensive and defensive possessions should be equal every game and over the course of the season. Opponents stats in other games must somehow factor into it.
I was trying to exit an argument without further conflict. If that sounds like your wife, youāre a lucky man.
The reality is that I am far from an expert on the topic and I lost interest in discussing it.
Quick guess on why the coefficient may have changed: change in 3P rate over time? Or maybe he just got better or worse at math?
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What does this say about Duke and over what period? Need this data to fit my narrative about them, thanks
Still the worst, the absolute worst. Total D-bags
Forever
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Kevin Sweeney and Eric Fawcett are doing an Xs and Os video podcast for Basket under Review, the new Trilly project, that seems pretty interesting. Itās called Scout Team. Worth checking out.
Their recent episode talked about a ball screen coverage variant called the hedge and plug.
We all know the hard hedge, where the screenerās defender hedgeās hard, while the ballhandlerās defender fights past the screen. And then there is a dance of switching coverage behind them. That was Tonyās go-to.
I suspect most of us know drop coverage, where the screenerās defender drops back to the paint to protect against both the roll (from the screener) and the drive (from the ballhandler).
In hedge and plug, the screenerās defender does basically the same thing as in a hard hedge, but the ballhandlerās defender, instead of racing back to the ball, plugs the passing lane. Interesting stuff:
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Good stuff. Didnāt we kinda do something similar either 2022-23 or 2023-24, but even less aggressively from the ballhandlerās defender? Like he was going with the screener down the lane some but wasnāt quite a full switch.
I like it, you get a little bit of the switching benefit without fully committing to the switch.
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Sounds sorta familiar but my memory and my X/O knowledge arenāt quite strong enough.
Sperber with a nice breakdown of what he calls the 3-across offense, featuring lots of duck-in / Gortat screens and a decent amount of old-school post moves, if thatās your thing @HiltonHeadHoo
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Lots of Xs and Os in this convo with Kevin Sweeney, also talking about the 2-big theme highlighted in that video:
The Basket Under Review Podcast: S1E6 - A Conversation with Kevin Sweeney
Kevin does point out that Gortat screens should be hella illegal but refs donāt ever call it, so screeners are incentivized to go absolutely nuts with them right now.
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I feel so validated after pulling my hair out watching Florida the last few seasons.
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I think they skirt the rules by looking like post-ups until theyāre not. What Iād like to see is:
- Tighter enforcement of offensive 3-seconds. The Gortat screener is often in the lane for a very long time.
- Moving screens called when the Gortat screenerās defender is trying to make a play on the ball but canāt because of a moving āpost-upā
If the screener is stationary, I see no problem with the Gortat screen, itās just a good screen when it works. But if heās displacing the help defender, that seems problematic to me in terms of offense-defense balance.
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Most of the issue is lack of skill by officials and lack of understanding the game
Do you think any rule changes are needed, or is it manageable within the existing rules just with more emphasis/teaching points for officials?
Sperber on the new charge rule and why itās increased the expected value of 2s in college hoops
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This has been an excellent rule change. Basketball would be a worse game if everyone was running the extreme Beard-style no-middle defense. Defenders should be trying toā¦defend and this should include secondary defenders. The verticality contests are good, exciting, and less dangerous! I would go further and categorically ban secondary defenders taking charges.
The dive into the Chris Jans defense was cool too, I like the strong-side low-man adaptation. Though perhaps itās not optimal to design your defense to be weak to skip pass 3s, but I guess you gotta choose something to give up.
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And if Ro-dog discovers an ingrown toenail and wants to Bliss out this season and come back to be the 15mpg utility man he was meant to be, then he can climb aboard too.
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You canāt cage Ro-Dog with 15mpg. You gotta let that dog roam uncaged
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