2021-22 Season Look Ahead

Men's Basketball
585

Well, top 15 is a little arbitrary. Against KenPom top 25 teams in out-of-conference games since 2015-16, UVA is 2-4.

The wins were both, as you note, in 2019 over Wiscy (#16) and MD (#24), in consecutive games, no less. Other than that, we’ve lost to WV (#7, 2017), WV again (#12, 2018), Purdue (#24, 2020), and of course Gonzaga (#1, 2021).

Interestingly, the only one of those games that happened at JPJ was the first loss to WV in 2017. Wiscy and Gonzaga were at neutral sites and the other 3 were all on the road. This makes me feel like good teams are doing their best to dodge UVA.

Here’s kind of an amazing stat to follow up on that. Excluding ACC games and ACC/Big10 challenge games which aren’t set by the schools, exactly 3 KenPom top 25 teams have intentionally chosen to play at JPJ during the entirety of CTB’s UVA career. That’s it. 3.

Those 3 are, in reverse chronological order: WV in 2017, Nova in 2016 and… VCU (#25) in 2014. So, initially it feels like maybe the good teams really are dodging UVA.

However, looking at on the road or at neutral sites during CTB’s tenure, UVA has played Washington (neutral, #16, 2011), Tennessee (away, #10, 2014), WV (neutral, #8, 2016), Nova, (away, #2, 2017), WV (away, #12, 2018), Wiscy (neutral, #16, 2019), and Gonzaga (neutral, #1, 2021). So that’s 3 away games and 4 neutral games. Those were some good teams, but we definitely aren’t stuck always playing good OOC teams on the road. Maybe we’re doing the dodging after all? I dunno.

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586

Was Nova outside of the top 15 in 16/17?

587

Uh, Baylor’s recently been kinda famous for scheduling outrageously soft OOC schedules. They make it look ok by scheduling 1 marquee game and then the rest are typically absolute creampuffs. Like last year, sure, they played Illinois but they still ended up with the 258th toughest OOC schedule (UVA, who’s schedule is being derided as paltry after it lost all its top match-ups still ended up at 211).

In 2020 Baylor had a real OOC schedule, but in 2019 they had Oregon and a bunch of directional-State U’s (#276). 2018 was the same as 2019 except they had Xavier and Wichita St in place of Oregon (yet their schedule was even softer at 282). 2017 they had a real schedule, but 2016 was cake again.

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588

Oops, you’re right. I missed Nova in 2017 initially (forgot it was mixed into the conference schedule), caught it doing the 2nd half of the post and forgot to add it into the first part. I didn’t include Nova in 2016 because I was only looking at OOC games after 2016. But Nova was #2 when we played them on the road in 2017 and I should have included them.

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589

Well that’s kinda the whole point. Schedule the cup cakes and the marquee games. Skip the in between games that can hurt you if lose without helping you with a win and also don’t draw any attention. No one cares what your overall OOC SOS schedule rank is now that they do seeding by quads decided by NET. What matters is top wins and avoiding bad losses. Plus if we ignore any tournament selection stuff the marquee games are way more fun for fans and presumably the players too.

And admittedly I don’t follow Baylor’s scheduling closely. I just know last year when Drew knew he had a top team he scheduled aggressively at the top including the cancelled Zags game. And I know Bill Self and Jay Wright and Chris Beard try to schedule 1-2 marquee OOC game a year.

590

Good grief. I didn’t mention Gonzaga first/-you did. As others have pointed out, our OOC and overall schedule strength has been fine. You want marquee made for tv matchups? Guess what—we still aren’t unc, Kansas, duke etc in the minds of most. Are we on par or better then Baylor? Sure. And our OOC schedule has generally surpassed there’s. Playing in a tournament with three other major conference teams is not some disgrace. Providence is a perpetual bubble like team and would give our young/inexperienced team a good game. It would be a nice win or a modestly bad loss. I’m fine with that. We are due to play Kentucky? I guess that fits your definition of high profile. We could have played them last year and they ended up terrible despite preseason top ten status. That’s happened to us before. I think tony has handled our scheduling just fine without all the cheap shots from the peanut gallery.

591

But that’s almost exactly what UVA does do. We had 1 tough game last in Gonzaga, and in years past we’ve typically had 1 or 2 games against tougher opponents. 2020 we didn’t, but not a lot was expected from that team so I wouldn’t be surprised if they intentionally scheduled more softly.

Really, it comes down to whether one considers Wiscy and MD in 2019 “good” or not. If one does (and KenPom thought they were good, at least in a “top 25” kind of way), then we are doing what Baylor, etc does. If one does not, then we’re not.

592

Gonzaga was one name out of a whole list lol why focus on them rather than the others? Obviously their conference schedule is weak but strong conference schedules don’t stop other power conference coaches from playing top games each year.

And if there is any truth to the Kentucky game then that’s exactly what I’d like to see. But that’s nothing more than rumor so far. No one is taking cheap shots. Is freaking May. It’s okay to talk about our scheduling. It’s not an attack on Tony to question something. If you are fine with this tournament that’s your prerogative but it isn’t a cheap shot to want something better.

593

I think Maryland and Wisconsin in 18/19 were fine but nothing exciting. Should be the low end of what we aim for. Definitely want to see us play programs that are at the top of the sport. Kansas, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Nova, and Michigan are at the top off of my wish list.

594

We were scheduled, played or seemingly are scheduled to play every one of those teams in a two year period ex Michigan. Let it go…

595

Let what go lol I feel like you are taking this conversation in a much different tone than I am. Relax. We are discussing scheduling in May. It’s okay if the two of us have different preferences.

596

Any word on if our transfers are here? Saw UNC’s were and they start scrimmages/summer workouts

https://twitter.com/UNC_Basketball/status/1395172017272459264

597

I wouldn’t mind an annual game with Maryland. Almost surely a good win/loss each season and I enjoy the rivalry and their arena. Could also just play in DC each season. I don’t care about all the ACC pride stuff and trying to shun them for going Big 10. But maybe Maryland isn’t open to the idea

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598

My wife’s cousin-in-law (is that a thing?) is a VC/private equity guy. He bought a stake in Dinosaur years ago and has it catered every time we go to his house. Those guys do a pretty nice job.

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599

I’d be up for that. Always felt the Maryland rivalry was underrated and I’d love to have it back.

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600

The one in the Bronx is/was the best. To be fair is all contrived but cold beer is cold beer

Cool you have that kissing cousin connection nonethelessG

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601

Oh yeah. I have a happy memory of Dre dunking all over Bruno Fernando.

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602

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603

Haarms floatin away!

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604

Mamadi floated us out of Ha(a)rms way for sure

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