2021-22 Season Look Ahead

Did they change the surface? When I was in school it was carpet (presumably the same as the AstroTurf used in Scott Stadium). Once it got dirty, and it was dirty more often then not, there was no traction. Saw at least one person seriously trash their knee trying to make a cut.

My memory of when I arrived in '76 it was a compound rubber surface.

1 Like

Does anyone have a link to the Instagram practice video itā€™s gone from Instagram

Well they do tell you to get it before itā€™s gone.

1 Like

This one?

https://www.instagram.com/p/CTUp2QHHael/

3 Likes

Really good piece in The Athletic from Brian Hamilton (national CBB reporter) previewing the season. Full article is paywalled, but here are some of the more interesting bits I noticed:

  • Tony says Kihei is going to spend some time playing off the ball
  • Kihei says his shot is quicker, more mechanically sound
  • Shedrick put on 30 pounds during the offseason
  • Gardner spent the summer working on his jumpshot
  • Author thinks the ceiling for UVA is ā€œlingering in the Top 25 for most of the season, finishing in the ACCā€™s upper tier and notching one or two wins in the NCAA Tournament.ā€ Floor is missing NCAAT/not making it out of the first round.
  • Honestly, a lot of allusions throughout to what we all kind of know: this is going to be a retooling year for the program so we can get the class of '22 in here and get Milicic/Taine ready

Full article: Trust in Tony Bennett, his plan to keep new-look Virginia atop the ACC - The Athletic

13 Likes

I read the piece earlier this morning and agree that Hamilton did a really nice job. He nailed pretty much everything other than his claim that ā€œmissingā€ on Austin Nunez keeps our '22 class from being really special. I couldnā€™t help but chuckle at that one.

12 Likes

Also liked the no comments or info on Igor not sure when he spoke to TB so maybe Igor wasnt in Cville yet. Thanks for sharing here

1 Like

Or since the interviewer had no idea to ask about him CTB did not feel the need to offering anything upā€¦

6 Likes

Iā€™d add that it seemed to me that Tony is VERY optimistic on Shedrick.

5 Likes

Are things so buttoned up at JPJ that we get nothing after the Dunn visit? Not a even little white smokeā€¦Inquiring minds are starving I tell you, starving. When the natives get restless, well, we might bomb Pearl Harbor.

2 Likes

Thanks for sharing! Think heā€™s right about our floor but way off on our ceiling. This team has a much higher ceiling than barely in the top 25 and Sweet 16. Maybe not national title but ACC double champs and Final Four is within the range of outcomes.

2 Likes

I mean if you think the team has final four ceiling then it has a national title ceiling

4 Likes

Disagree. Most years there is a team that makes the Final Four but has no shot of winning it all once they get there. Like Houston last year. Or that Michigan State team the year we won it. Or Loyola in Novaā€™s second title year. Once you are there you are still only 2/3 of the way to a title and that last 1/3 is usually the hardest part.

1 Like

I think Final 4 is best case. Sweet 16 is more like reasonable best case.

If I were writing these things, Iā€™d write the reasonable best and reasonable worst case (call it the 10% - 90% outcomes). E.g., itā€™s theoretically true that Morgan Stateā€™s ceiling is winning it all, but itā€™s not terribly informative in a preview to write that.

(Even best case is more like a 99% outcome, because yes of course we could win it all. Just like Morgan State)

1 Like

Yea using that standard I stand by Final Four and double ACC champs. I mean Duke appears to be preseason top 10 (top 5 some places) and I think thereā€™s at least a 33% chance we are better than them.

It was always so so hot in there, too.

I disagree with this. Sure, it seems that way in hindsight but I donā€™t think itā€™s true. Michigan State was favored over Texas Tech in 2019, and had just beaten #1 overall Duke. Butler was an 8-seed and almost won it all. UConn pulled off an out of nowhere title in 2014.

2 Likes

Not really hindsight thing. Even if you disagree that itā€™s true surely youā€™ve heard the ā€˜happy to be hereā€™ talk heading into final fours? And you may disagree with Sparty as a specific example but there are plenty of others. Not saying it happens every year. And maybe most was too strong but it does happen more often than not. Some team gets a favorable path and makes a Cinderella run. Or they play their best game of the year in the Elite Eight and itā€™s completely unrealistic theyā€™ll repeat that performance against a second consecutive top 5 opponent in the semis.

Just look at recent final fours:
-2021: Houston had no chance
-2019: I put Sparty in that category and you donā€™t. Agree to disagree there.
2018: Loyola had no chance
2017: USCe had no chance
2016: Syracuse had no chance
2015: Sparty had no chance but mightā€™ve in a non-historically good field
2014: everyone had a shot
2013: Actually the reverse of the hindsight claim. Everyone thought Wichita State had no chance at the time but looking at how close the game was, what they did the next year, and what FVF has done in the NBA they were underestimated and did have a chance.
2012: Everyone had a chance.
2011: Everyone had a chance.

You can keep going back and see the trend. I think because culturally we put an outsized emphasis on making the Final Four as compared to the semifinal round of other team sports that people forget how humongous of a gap there is between just making the Final Four and winning it all.

So what Iā€™m saying is I think this team could beat one top team in the Elite Eight if everything clicks this season. I donā€™t think theyā€™ll be able to beat 3 elite teams in a row and for that to happen it would require circumstances outside of the ā€˜reasonable projectionā€™ range Haney talked about above.

2 Likes

I just donā€™t understand your criteria for had no chance, especially if UConn doesnā€™t fit the label in 2014 considering the other teams in the Final 4 that year.