I posted this a while back, but our high school recruiting run from 2010 to 2016 was truly impressive. We had plenty of misses (as all teams will), but our hit rate was phenomenal. Then we fell off a cliff. (Note: I use āNBAā below when somebody has played meaningful minutes in the league over multiple seasons)
2010:
Joe Harris - STAR
Akil Mitchell - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
KT Harrell - Limited Contributor/Transfer
James Johnson - Transfer
Will Regan - Transfer
Billy Baron - Transfer
2011
Malcolm Brogdon - STAR
Darion Atkins - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Paul Jesperson - Limited Contributor/Transfer
2012
Justin Anderson - STAR
Mike Tobey - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Evan Nolte - Limited Contributor
Taylor Barnette - Transfer
Teven Jones - Transfer
2013
Devon Hall - STAR
London Perrantes - STAR
2014
Isaiah Wilkins - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Jack Salt - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
BJ Stith - Transfer
Marial Shayok - Limited contributor/Transfer
2015
Mamadi Diakite - STAR
Jarred Reuter - Transfer
2016
Ty Jerome - STAR
DeāAndre Hunter - STAR
Kyle Guy - STAR
Jay Huff - STAR
2017
Marco Anthony - Transfer
Francesco Badocchi - Retired
2018
Kihei Clark - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Francisco Caffaro - Limited Contributor/Transfer
Kody Stattman - Limited Contributor
2019
Kadin Shedrick - Limited Contributor/Transfer
Casey Morsell - Limited Contributor/Transfer
Justin McKoy - Transfer
2020
Reece Beekman - STAR
Jabri Abdur-Rahim - Transfer
Caron McCorkle - Transfer
2021
Taine Murray - Limited Contributor
Igor Milicic - Transfer
2022
Isaac McKneely - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Ryan Dunn - MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR
Leon Bond - Limited Contributor
Isaac Traudt - Transfer
Updated my recruiting list through 2022. I said it in the VIP thread but will also say it here - this is the problem from which so many of the other problems flow - failing to identify, land, and develop our high school recruits.
Look at our hit rate through 2016 - it was fantastic. Since then, five recruiting classes have produced only four ACC-level contributors who stayed with UVA (Kihei, Reece, McKneely, and Dunn). And even among those guys that were major contributors, Iād argue only one was a star (Reece - but McKneely could get there), three had major jump shooting issues that limited our offense (Kihei, Reece, and Dunn) and one is probably gone after only two years (Dunn).
Thatās a terrible stretch of high school recruiting, retention, and internal development. Obviously weāll have to see how the highly ranked 2023 class fits in and thereās still room for a guy like McKneely to keep moving up, but yeesh.
This x 1,000,000. I firmly believe this is the root of all of our problems. Essentially a 5 year period after the 2016 class that produced only Kihei and Reece as contributors - and they hampered each othersā impact.
But all of that said - the key question is why did recruiting drop off a cliff? Some possible reasons:
Loss of key assistants who excelled in identifying and recruiting talent (e.g. McKay, Sanchez, Getter)
Bag dropping pre-NIL
The National media narrative (and resulting negative recruiting) around our system/pace that developed when we started winning a lot
Nazis
Tony over-relying on the transfer market for mediocre short term help at the detriment of high school recruiting & development
COVID reducing scouting time
Tony getting away from the roster archetypes that got us here (e.g. Stretch 4s over athletic 4s, wasting time on 5 stars instead of the high potential 4 stars, etc.)
The transfer portal pushing players out that we could have used over multiple years
The path back to national contender status relies on understanding the why and taking the corrective actions. For example, if the problem is the assistants, then staff changes are needed. If the problem is the media narrative on our offense, then a system change is needed. If the problem is poor approaches to roster management (poor archetypes, prioritizing the wrong Plan As, Over-reliance on Transfers, etc.), then we just need a recruiting philosophy change.
We found three diamonds in the rough pretty much back to back to back - Joe, Malc, Dre. Top 15 caliber guys who were 85-115 or so. Thatās an all timer run of luck.
A bunch of other stuff, too, but I think thatās the biggest factor in the decline of our recruiting. The further we get away from it, I hope calling it āluckā isnāt even that controversial.
To me, it all stems from the 2019 recruiting class: whiffed on all three guys.
And the transfers of all three necessitated bringing in the band-aids that messed up the recruit-and-develop strategy that used to be in place.
The bummer is that the 2022 recruiting class was supposed to be the course correction, but that class never got to play together for āreasonsā.
I donāt know that I agree. During that span, we also got London, Guy, Jerome, Anderson, Huff, Diakite, Tobey, Mitchell, etc. And that excludes the top drawer transfers we got and delivered on the court.
Yes, those were the 3 biggest star power playersā¦but we havenāt gotten anything near that broader haul consistently since 2016. Thatās not luck. Thatās a clear inflection point in performance on the recruiting trail.
Iāll put it this way ā having several years of top 25 teams will make it more likely you attract the mega-star(s) that makes you top 10. The longer we go not being close to that, the more āunluckyā we will be in your terminology.
Weāve gotten SO far away from that because we let our total roster management go to hell over multiple cycles.
2016 class = UVa goes to āall-inā mode, focuses on transfers to complement this group. Smaller HS classes follow, guys like Nigel Johnson, Braxton Key, and (maybe?) Sam Hauser are brought in to complement the Big Three.
2019 class = bridge class to the next āall-inā class. Sadly, this bridge has more in common with the Bridge on the River Kwai or the Key Bridge than the Golden Gate Bridge.
2020-2021: Covid happens. Not an excuse, but you have to acknowledge it messed things up.
2022 class = UVaās next āall-inā class, but the time tables are messed up due 5th year eligibility and instant transfers. This class never plays together because Traudt bolts at the first chance, Dunn gets too good too quickly, and Bond is kind of stuck in positionless limbo.
Somewhere in there, you also have to factor in the Big Three leaving post-championship (right decision for them, not the best for program), Trey getting instant eligibility and also getting too good too quickly. And then factor in injuries/lack of development for Kody, Papi, and depending on if youāre feeling generous Badocchi and McCorkle.
Then that is a roster management error. Look at the pre-2016 years. We consistently got 2+ contributors each year, including several large classes in row that delivered 2+ contributors.
Thats why the excuses after the 2016 class never rung true to me. We had no problem recruiting talent in sequential years before 2016.
If it was a conscious decision to focus on flyers or specific role players, then it was the wrong decision.
I think there is something else that happened that led to the same outcome.
I think having Sanchez back is huge. The recent articles talking about how other coaches/assistants respect Sanchez on the trail and the number of solid power 5 players poached from his Charlotte team reinforces the idea that heās a strong talent identifier/recruiter.
And Ive heard from several people now that Sanchez has expressed his concerns regarding the talent of this roster so we will see. So far his only addition is Cofie, who did end up a Washington Gatorade player of the year (but tbd on college impact)
A lot of offensive versatility is dependent on seasoned bigs who can make plays and set screens for all the movement and make passes. Dunn was too light and still young, Buchanan very raw and look flustered, and Groves/Minor were okay at best in those regards (Minor sometimes missed the open corner pass that I always see Maliq Brown make for Syracuse).
We need a pg with a respectable 3pt shot. And we need some semblance of defensive switchability or versatility at the 3/4 spots
Yeah, thatās where I put blame on the ā19 class of Shedrick, Morsell, and McCoy for not being that bridge to the next group. The roster management gets messed up from that point forward. Then when you add in instant transfers with fifth year eligibility, and the high school recruiting timeline hasnāt gotten back on track.
Also something to think about thatās brought the vibes down on the high school recruiting front is Tony going hard after Reed and Kon and losing those battles to Kentucky and Duke.
We took a 5 man 2016 class on top of having Perrantes Hall Wilkins Shayok Thompson.
There was no room for anyone else. I think thatās a reasonable excuse for 2017.
2018 Jared Butlerās dad didnāt want him to come to UVA/some concerns he wouldnāt get medically cleared. And then other kids mentioning the rallies. Still canāt get over the fact we were recruiting a kid named David Duke during that time LOL. And also going in on Quinerly who was a bag chaser/wasted time.
2019-2023, we wasted a lot of time on 5 stars where we maybe failed to realize even though we won the natty we are still virginia and blue bloods are blue bloods. To be fair Keels Power and Kon werenāt 5 stars when we started recruiting them.
Yes. I think instead of impugning the recent recruiting, itās more realistic to say we overachieved during the stretch you highlighted through the 2017 class.
Isnāt it clearly both? That 2011-2016 stretch was never going to be sustainable but we also havenāt hit at an acceptable rate since then. Especially when you focus on our 4 star guys. Those should become major contributors at a 50% rate. I got us at 3/11 based on Maineās list
The transfers complicate things: JAR, Morsell, McKoy, Igor, Shed. All became at least decent role players at the power 5 level or good contributors at a level or so below. Traudt still TBD. Of those six players, how many couldāve been at least decent, experienced rotation guys here? One arguably did.
Like I said above, these things are all multi layered, but Tony and crew got a little knocked sideways by the new rules. And imo were then knocked a bit more sideways by their initial reaction (Jayden, Armaan, BVP, and Iād put Dante into that bucket). But I know the last point is controversial.
One uncontroversial point (I think) is that we havenāt recruited or developed or retained or (hopefully) let play the types of guards we need.
Is iMac one of them? Heās not yet but I hope he gets there