No, REALLY this timeâŚ
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Eh. I mean, sure, it sucked, but at this point in the season we knew what we had. It certainly wasnât as embarrassing as UMBC (though I recently learned on the womenâs side Harvard beat, I think, Stanford as a 16 over 1 upset in like '98 or something so maybe not the first), and for me it wasnât even as bad as last season because it wasnât an upset. Both years sucked, but last year I had very plausible dreams of reaching the Sweet 16 whereas this year I knew things had to go well for us to even get to the round of 64.
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30 answers on the four-question stay/go survey of fan expectations and sentiment:
surprising answers I will share later today. cast your vote if you havenât
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I think this debacle has much deeper ramifications. That embarrassing, abysmal, inexplicable, unacceptable display wasnât just a bad loss; it exposed deep, systemic problems with the program as it currently exists. It isnât going to be solved with motivational speeches, rafting, bonding, and making promises to one another about coming back and proving that 2018 wasnât a statement about the program and talent.
Instead, we are going to have to overhaul the program. That makes me way more depressedâŚbut there is hope; I am just still processing it so forgive my pessimism. That hope is contingent on Tony being willing to make change though, so we shall see.
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Thatâs the key - how willing is Tony to overhaul the offensive system? He said last night he thinks our NCAAT problems are players and system. I am hoping he is thinking major mindset and schematic changes and not just updates. All-time greatness awaits.
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Honestly, Itâs a pretty poor article.
He calls out Virginia needing to change. He cites 2 teams:
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Tennessee â basically says Barnes went out and won the transfer portal â e.g., got better players. Iâve criticized Tony for dipping TOO much into the transfer portal because I donât think we can legitimately compete there in the new world order like we used to. He futher cites increased pace of play. There is almost zero correlation to pace and success in the NCAA (if anything, inverse correlation). Efficiency is so much more important than pace of play in the college game (hence the need for better players whoâŚyou know, can actually hit shots).
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Wisconsin - Again cites going into the transfer portal. But Wisconsin is one of the oldest teams in the country. They got old and stayed old. Ironically, their change in offense is being attributed to Kirk Penny â Ex-UVA assistant.
I DO BELIEVE we have to evolve. But I think the the biggest problem facing UVA right now is the narrative around the program. This system CAN win (we had a top 50 offense on average for like 8 years until we won the natty). Unfortunately, we didnât capitalize on the title in recruiting (poor evaluations as much as anything). Now the narrative has taken over and been âvalidatedâ even if itâs not really true, which is/will cripple our ability to attract talent.
Between the narrative and what is likely <4 years left with Tony, the only path forward is to change the offense to mitigate the narrative and to accelerate talent acquisition via the portal (even though we are likely better at high school recruiting now and are still a developmental program). Both of those things are things weâve proven we arenât effective at â or arenât willing to do.
Which is why I feel worse today than after UMBC. I actually felt the same way after the Syracuse Elite 8 loss as I was concerned our window to overcome the narrative with effective talent acquistion had closed.
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This is my 3rd offseason running surveys to gauge Hoo fan sentiment. Results of stay/go survey 2024:
Which of these people will be with UVA at the start of the 24-25 season?
Murray 100%
Bliss 100%
Buchanan 98%
Robinson 98%
McKneely 98%
Gertrude 82%
Rohde 71%
Bond 57%
Harris 35%
Dunn 12%
Beekman 2%
Sanchez 96%
Bennett 94%
WIlliford 82%
In an ideal world for UVA, which of these people will be with UVA at the start of the 24-25 season?
Gertrude 100%
Bliss 100%
McKneely 98%
Buchanan 92%
Robinson 90%
Murray 88%
Bond 69%
Beekman 65%
Dunn 63%
Rohde 12%
Harris 2%
I donât understand the argument that the team is worse off with Reece back. Iâd love to hear the reasoning of those 35% of fans.
Dunn is interesting because Iâm not sure the split between people who want him gone because his recruiting ranking to the NBA in two years will help our future recruiting vs the people who think he stinks or we can find someone better.
Bennett 96%
Sanchez 57%
WIlliford 53%
47/49 people want Bennett back. Clearly Stephen A. Smith voted twice.
How many NET transfers do you expect into UVA for 24-25 (transfers in MINUS transfers out)?
How many transfers in do you want?
Iâm the vote for zero. I also said I want everyone back except a certain diminutive PG.
Iâll run the larger fan expectations survey for 24-25 once we know who is on the team. Here are the results from 22-23 and 23-24: UVA Fan Expectations 23-24 - Google Docs
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I didnât vote but I wouldâve been a 35%er. In an ideal world for UVa, we keep guys a max of 4 years and then turn over the scholly, and Reece will be on a 2-way.
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Maybe people were thinking like that. To me, we are clearly better if he somehow comes back for year 5, and thatâs what I was trying to get at.
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I keep seeing this narrative of âroster upgradeâ needed. I seriously doubt it is that simple. It kind of suggests that we just need to go after more talented players but we have lost out on recruits that would be difference makers (most recently Kon). There are a few factors that likely hold us back: the offensive system, history of not dropping bags, narrative of post season failures and more difficult academics/admissions.
Assuming that the new emphasis on competing more with the blue bloods on NIL and Tonyâs salesmanship get us over the roster upgrade hump, I fear that there are a few more noteworthy hurdles.
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Our system takes too long to be proficient in and we can no longer expect a core group to stick around long enough for the ROI. (And this has a lot of first years redshirt!)
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Our offense has been too easy to scheme againstâthough a roster upgrade might mitigate some of that it may still be an issue even with better shooters and post play.
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Something has us be âtoo quick to implodeââthis too may be fixed with a few new players that are unbreakable but it is worth looking into further as it is also not a new phenomenon.
I donât envy Tony as IMO this is a complex problem and not an easy fix. Not as simple as adding 3 new pieces from the portal this off-season. I get the sense that he is starting to see the problems but it remains to be seen if he has a solution.
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We have had instant impact players as freshman and also Trey Murphy and hell even Jayden Gardner.
Our offenses have been easy to scheme against because there are only, at most, two scoring threats on the floor and no really gravity outside McKneelyâs 3.
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Valid point but it is still the reason why we redshirt (Bliss, Bond) or get limited contribution their first year (Buchanan, Dunn). My point is that with more roster turnover (and I think we have to expect that to continue) there need to be adjustments such that we can get more out of players in their first year in our system.
I agree that better offensive players will make it harder to scheme against us. I also think that we canât stay exclusively in slow tempo, use up the whole shot clock sets. When we get behind it is so difficult to claw our way back as we eat so much clock.
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I voted for ideal without Reece and Dunn, as I think itâs better for UVA (over a multi-year perspective) for them to be in the league. To maximize next yearâs chances of winning, however, I do agree that we would be better with them.
P.S. I voted to keep Tony. Better without TB is crazy.
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Does it help UVA that much, recruiting-wise or whatever, if Ryan gets drafted but his offense never really develops/he never really plays at the next level?
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Quick to implode ⌠agree but wonder if it is simply an offensive problem. When you have difficulty scoring it becomes âextremely difficultâ when the other team has momentum. Basically, this ineptitude make us very vulnerable to a reverse Cavalanche.
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Or does it help if he shoots well in the NBA and people wonder why that was suppressed at UVA?
Weâve had/have enough very good NBA shooters that I donât think our wing reputation will be damaged too bad by one subpar shooter.
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His shooting was not suppressed at UVA; the dude just flat out canât shoot. I wish nothing but the best for him though.
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