This is where Iâm at. For both recruits and transfers, we have usually missed on the most sought-after guys. Iâm of the view that recruits are the core for a team, and transfers are useful role players. Sure, a transfer could be a program game changer, but we NEVER get those guys. Talk of getting a wing who is an excellent shooter in the portal? Pipe dream.
Tony needs to adapt for the talent he does get. We have Eli Gertrude. Can he make changes to keep him and build the team around him? I donât know man, I donât know.
My pithy summary of the year, touching on the talent v system/philosophy/approach (SPA) discussion
Talent is likely the reason we didnât have a top 75 or so offense
SPA is IMO the reason we werenât at least top 150 or so in offense
Howevuh⌠Defensive SPA is also the reason we had a top 10 defense
Howevuh to that Howevuh⌠some combo of offensive and defensive SPA is also the reason we didnât have a top 3-5 defense (preference for âcontinuousnessâ on the defensive side over raw athleticism / preference for limiting turnovers above all else on offense - including for example, scoring)
I didnât used to worry that much that offensive SPA hurt us too much in talent collection (recruiting), but Iâm now officially worried.
I couldâve reduced that point to : imagine how good our defense would be if we had Elijah or Bond closing out on the perimeter, rather than Rohde or Murray (or even IMac or Dante, really). With some residual - why didnât Minor play much early on, again?
Last year I think Shedrick and Traudt entered portal 3/27. Last game was 3/16.
This year last game was 3/19. Should we expect people to enter this week or next week also? Iâm hoping for no out-transfers by the way (except the one everyone wants).
People thought Michigan State shouldnât have even made it in based on their resume, but metrics like Kenpom/Barttorvik/EvanMiya were all showing that they were grossly underseeded. Weird team.
And they finished 8th in the Big Ten with a record of 10-10. I mean, they won, but they havenât demonstrated they are goodâŚwell, with the exception of today, which was competition more than anything.
Mich StateâŚ
They win in March almost every year⌠today is not an anomaly ⌠He plays 10-11 guys at least 200 minutes most yearsâŚ. Allows them to still be ok when injuries and other things happen.
Everyone is ready to compete.
Sweet 16 or better in 15/27 seasons under Izzo including 8 Final 4âs, 2 Elite 8âs and 5 Sweet 16âs.
He wins 65% of Madness games where he is the lesser seed.
56-24 in the Madness
70.6% winning overall
70.0% winning in the madness
Ya, but they 100% suck all season long. Plus, I hate them and thatâs enough for me.
How much time do you spend finding useless statistics anyway?
Also, when is the last time Izzo won a championship? I bet MSU fans would trade all those Sweet 16s for another title. In fact, I know so because I know many MSU fans; my dad was from Michigan.
Edit: MSU fans are screaming because he wonât play Xavier Booker. All season long pissing and moaning about Izzo. It is just not true that he played 10-11 guys; the big knock on Izzo this season was that WOULDNâT do that. You should check your statistics.
Sure â- Michigan State had 11 guys play more minutes than Gertrude this seasonâŚ
And yes guys 9-11 didnât play a lot 224, 184, 179 total Minutes.
Eli at 150 minutes
Well, you wonât get an argument from me about Eli; I was looking forward to seeing him play the entire offseasonâŚand the season as it turns out. It was outrageous from a fanâs perspective that Eli didnât play. I hope he stays.
Also, I shouldnât have gotten emotionalâŚsorry. I really do have exceptionally annoying relatives who are obnoxious MSU fans, so I canât stand them. Their success in the tourney is undeniable. They did suck all season though.
I was just thinking, you know what aligns pretty well with our terrible recent tournament performance?⌠These trash uniforms.
My new theory is these uniforms are cursed. Fix the offensive system, get better talent, whatever - we must abandon these abominations or we will continue to suffer.
Hey, I dislike Michigan State as much as the next guy, especially from a Hoo perspective⌠Canât really argue with his March successâŚ. Really remarkable that his March winning percentage is just about the same as his regular season winning percentageâŚâŚ Bonkers
Last time we won the national title the blue white scrimmage was streamed.
The fact that Tony only completed two thirds of the trifecta (White water rafting, UVA beating the staff in the annual softball game) repeatedly has angered the sports gods.
Watching the games yesterday was therapeutic for me, I hope it was for everyone else as well. And a BIG âThank Youâ to Colorado State (for scoring 11 pts in the first half) and to Kentucky for dominating the headlines with a historic and embarrassing loss. I think that helped us all in some way.
Typically, I write a season wrap-up email on my observations, but as I collected my thoughts for this year, I realized it is basically the same email I sent two years ago almost to the day. It highlights the same concerns, the same issues, the same doubts - albeit with different players involved. But its remarkable how little has changed since I wrote this two years ago exactly. There are things I would emphasize more, and some I would de-emphasize to a degree, but it is essentially the same set of issues. Have a look:
A couple of thoughts on the season now that the sun has risen this morning:
Congrats to St Bonaventure. They went on the road and beat 3 power 5 teams in hostile environments. Wow - thatâs impressive - not a lot of teams could do that. Well done, and perhaps they have reminded us all that program continuity (5 seniors), cohesiveness, and hard work are still sound methods to win in March. Iâm all for getting a transfer stud to come in for a year, but also firmly believe that team cohesiveness, chemistry, and a genuine love of your teammates is really important and translates to wins. St. Bonâs had it, and we didnât - that was obvious even through the television.
Excited about our 1st years next year, as we all are. But keep in mind, they are first years and some of the skills they all wowed us with in HIGH SCHOOL VIDEO CLIPS wonât translate in ACC play. None of them are Zion, or Bryant Stith, or Ralph. They are great prospects, and it will take time for them to find their footing. And some may not work out⌠itâs happened before. Remember JabriâŚhe was more highly rated than any of them. If we had Forum back then we all would have been predicting more Nattyâs when he committed. Maybe we did do that - I wasnât involved then We need to give them time to be awesome. And some of them will be.
Reece is awesome, and had a great year. But if he wants to play in the NBA, he has to be able to shoot at a much higher percentage, from a much deeper range. Canât play in the NBA if you canât shoot (shout out Patrick Beverly)- regardless of position. I think he will get there and this is a VERY important summer for him. Rooting for him as we all are - he is a good player. Want to see him become GREAT.
The transfer portal is a seductive and mysterious place. I find it hard to believe that kids we would have never recruited 12 months ago are now hot commodities for ACC teams. Yes, there are a few outliers, and they are a year older, and have improved. But lighting it up in the mid-majors isnât always a great predictor of success at a power 5 school. I thought Jaden was very good this year for us, and truthfully, I thought he would struggle more than he did. He stepped up and that was great, but not everyone will. My fear is that the transfer portal can be foolâs gold for some programs and I hope we arenât one of them. I find it hard to believe that a kid from Southwest Northeast Mid-Dakota State (great school) can come in and help us. HGN knows them all and I trust his opinion, but letâs focus on kids that are highly rated, on the radar, and highly sought after. We can recruit at the level and should be landing more and more each year. Finding a diamond in the rough seems like a low percentage play to me.
A quick review of the top programs in the NCAA reveals the following about us - objectively:
we are little at every position except 5
we played sub-par shooters in the backcourt
we are sub-par athletically as a whole
The top NCAA teams were impressive, both in the airport and on the court. We had an âIsland of the Misfit Toysâ feel to us this year, and I think we did as best as we could. But lets get some dogs/studs/specimens up in here moving forward. If we want to be elite, we have to get those kids.
Thatâs it for now. Was a fun year with you guys - always is. Stay tuned as we have a BIG announcement coming out about LRA which we are very excited about. Appreciate all the support, the critiques, the passion, and the fun.
Much Love,
Hav
So in summary, if the past is a future indicator, we may be talking about the same things two years from now. Letâs hope CTB and staff get in the weeds and really try to solve for some of these problems which seem to plague us year after year.
