Now that we have our full roster, here is a thread to discuss how the pieces fit together and which players might fit with who?
Reece (32), McKneely (30), Minor (32), Rohde (28), Dunn (25), Groves (15), ??? (14), Buchanan (8).
- The open question is where do the remaining ~14 minutes go. That’s where I think you see a battle between Gertrude, Bond, and Murray with one emerging. That would make the 8 man core rotation (Buchanan isn’t considered part of core as his 8 mins will be situational).
- If it’s Gertrude, you could see McKneely slip down to the 3. If it’s Murray or Bond, you could see them taking some minutes at the 4 with Groves slotting in a few minutes at the 3, depending on match-ups.
- just because Rohde isn’t listed as 1 doesn’t mean he won’t play some primary ballhandler. The positions are there just to organize the minutes a bit.
Rothstein thinks Harris starts w Beeks. Ah no
Will say his preseason ranking seems fair
He could. It just will be based on whether / how much Rohde is a liability on defense.
I actually thought Rohde was solid defensively when they played Creighton. Made Alexander and Nembhard’s life difficult at times
I think I’d tweak Minor’s minutes downwards for more Dunn and Buchanan minutes; a big logging 80% of minutes (which is what 32 would be) has been rare under TB, especially when they are the primary 5.
Do you imagine that Bond will continue to sit on the bench entire games?
Feel like the front court rotation is pretty predictable, so I’m going to tackle that in a standalone post. 80 mpg to split.
Ryan Dunn is going to step into a 25+ mpg role at the 4-spot.
Jordan Minor, as I mentioned in another thread, beats out Jacob Groves at the 5-spot by virtue of his better physicality and 2-way nature. Conditioning looks solid and gave Merrimack 33 mpg last year but the tougher nature of the ACC and more continuous defensive requirement (didn’t we read he played ZONE at Merrimack?!) I foresee keeping him capped at 25 mpg
Groves is an offense-first substitution at both the 4 and 5. Went 20 mpg in the Big XII last year and can probably do the same in the ACC if needed. Can play with Minor, Dunn, and Bond (against smaller opponent front courts) for a good offense/defense pairing.
Biggest curiosity is how much Buchanan can give backing up Minor at the 5-spot. It’d be nice if he can be a regular, as Groves is better suited as a 4 (mediocre rebounding, slighter build). But important to remember Tony hasn’t trusted a true freshman 5-man since Tobey in 2012-13 (and even then that was partially due to necessity with a lack of depth that season). Blake’s going to have a steep learning curve defensively, and you can only really pair him with Dunn, MAYBE Groves in limited instances.
Bond or Murray pick up whatever minutes at the 4 aren’t already eaten up by Dunn or Groves.
Here’s 40 mpg of pairings I could foresee:
Put another way, here’s how their minutes would total out by player and position:
Bond and Murray would of course also be in line for minutes at the 3.
I think we can presume that Beekman, McKneely, and Dunn will get the lion’s share of minutes. Beyond that, it’s all speculation based on little more than whims.
What is Virginia ranked? GDPR won’t let me see the article. Stupid EU.
I like the idea of only playing Groves when one of Minor, Buchanan, or Dunn is on the court, since he didn’t offer much rebounding or rim protection at OU.
FWIW, Hoop Explorer’s regularized adjusted plus-minus stat liked his defense at OU last year, even with the raw on-off numbers not showing much of a difference. OU did foul a lot less with Groves on the court, without much of a hit to their defense’s effective field goal percentage.
KU 1. Duke 2. Miami 8. UNC 27
Yep… definitely fair.
Think I’m on an island in that I expect Bond to play in the minutes y’all are allocating to Buchanan. Don’t think Blake makes the rotation. 4/5 would look something like this:
15 min: Dunn and Minor
15 min: Dunn and Groves
10 min: Bond and Minor
Puts us at
Dunn 30 min
Minor 25 min
Groves 15 min
Bond 10 min
Caveat being Bond and Dunn could steal some minutes at the 3 and thus open up more minutes for Minor or Groves or spot appearances for Buchanan.
Tons of options if we are able to roll out Dunn+Groves and/or Bond+Groves pairings. Think we run into a real minutes crunch at the 1-3 if we aren’t able to get some combo of Dunn and Groves to fill most of the backup 5 minutes
Here’s an aspect to consider. I’ve seen a ton of dialogue about playing time and transfers and how the 2 are related - a la Milicic, Shayok, etc.
Here is my ranking for transfer risk next year based on playing time - happiness etc.
From least likely to most likely with a % risk next to each. Would welcome thoughts on this too.
Also assuming NCAA is strict on 2nd transfer sit out a year rule.
Minor - 0%
Groves - 0% - still not listed on the roster on UVA official page
Beekman - 0%
How - 0%
Harris - 5%
Rohde - 10%
McKneely - 5%
Dunn - 5%
Roberts 20% - still not listed on the roster on UVA official page
Bond - 20%
Murray - 25%
Gertrude - 35% Needs to play at least 1 min in 1st game
Buchanan - 35% Needs to play at least 1 min in 1st game
Robinson - 40% Needs to play at least 1 min in 1st game
I’d be concerned about reputational risk for the staff if they are playing a guy minimal minutes for the purpose of making a transfer harder by using a year of eligibility. I’m fine with not redshirting guys, but it should be because they have real opportunities to earn minutes or because they don’t want to redshirt even if the opportunity is uncertain.
Too high on Murray… feels like a Nolte type at worst. He got into the Comm school this summer, so feels like he’s locked in on getting his McIntyre degree. I think he plays all 4 years regardless of how this season goes, then potentially takes his bonus year (he’ll be the last class eligible) as a grad transfer.
Also debating if you’re too high on Robinson… He’s going to redshirt, he knows it, everyone knows it. Not saying it should be zero percent, and acknowledge there’s the possibility he realizes during his redshirt he’s in over his head at the ACC level. But don’t think the Not Playing This Year factor will be an issue.
It’s a complete unknown, but I would imagine that they are both ahead of any of the newcomers. I always find it interesting the way denizens of message boards are always enamored with the shiny new toys and forget the ones already in the chest.
“Ahead of any of the newcomers” is a stretch. They’re ahead of the true freshmen, and that’s it. Comparing them to Rohde or Harris who had major minutes elsewhere, just because Bond and Murray have been at UVA longer, is way too apples and oranges.
As I said, it’s an unknown, but we will see. (And, I don’t think that Harris is in competition with either Bond or Murray for PT.)