2023-24 Rotations and Lineups

Yeah, me too. But until he shows up and plays, there’s always that 1% chance he shows up and blows up.

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oops - totally forgot to add him to the group - edited now above.

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2 best bigs under CTB - Gill and Huff.
Gill averaged 28 min per game his best year after averaging 25 min per game as a freshman at South Carolina.
Huff averaged 27 min per game his best year though he did average 29 min per game in ACC play that year.

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Some of this got me thinking (always dangerous) - here was the mpg allocation on the final 4 teams this year:

  • UConn - played 9 guys more than 10 mpg. Nobody higher than 29.4.
  • FAU - played 9 guys more than 15 mpg. Nobody higher than 26.4.
  • San Diego St - played 9 guys more than 16 mpg. Nobody higher than 27.2.
  • Miami - played 8 guys more than 10 mpg. 3 guys higher than 30. 2 higher than 33.

Interesting to see the different approaches to this. I’d guess that this year’s final 4 is probably an outlier in terms of PT distribution, but that’s just a guess. (exception of Miami).

For reference:

  • UVa - played 8 guys more than 12 mpg. 2 guys higher than 30
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McKneely and Dunn combining for only 52 would be a bad thing. Won’t say it’s unlikely but it would mean they didn’t improve as much as we all hope

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Why? Or they can play harder and more effectively and not worry about foul trouble like Ty Jerome talked about. There’s no reason to play anyone this year so many minutes they are worried about conserving energy or fouls.
It could also mean that Dunn and Isaac are really good… and also Rohde and Gertrude for example are really good.

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They can easily play hard for 30 minutes a night. Can understand the argument for keeping top guys closer to 30 than 35 mpg but under 30 you are just hurting your team (with the exception of centers). Only reason to limit their minutes would be if they don’t separate from the competition. Typically when there is no separation that means everyone is mediocre rather than everyone is awesome

I guess everyone else could be so good that Isaac is All ACC and Ryan is All ACC Defense and yet there is no drop off when they rest. But then we are going 39-0 and the only discussion to be had will be why Tony doesn’t schedule the full allotment of games so we can go 40-0

This is the obvious thing I’ve been saying. :slight_smile:
For me from a talent perspective on this team - the only obvious dropoff in talent from a starter to his replacement is Reece to Dante.
And even then if Rohde is in and ball handling - I don’t think the dropoff is that obvious yet - I could be wrong.
Minor to Buchanan
Dunn to Groves
Rohde to Bond/Taine
Isaac to Gertrude
There’s definitely not a dropoff in talent to me … experience yes of course. Production? TBD

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But it’s not just Isaac to Gertrude since they can play the 2 and 3 together. To say there’s not a drop off means Isaac, Elijah, and one of Rohde/Bond/Taine group all are All ACC level players (again assuming Isaac makes the All ACC jump). You need 3 All ACC caliber 2/3’s to start limiting Isaac’s minutes without hurting the level on the actual court .

Seems fanciful to think that’s going to be the case when we haven’t been able to find a single high level 2/3 since the national title. Heck, I feel a bit foolish being so confident that Isaac is going to make that jump. Definitely not banking on another guy or two to be at a similarly high level

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My guess is Dunn especially ends up in a linchpin role where he’s viewed as indispensable to the defense and plays huge minutes (32+). I could just see any lineup with Minor or Groves and no Dunn being pretty exposed, but Bond’s development may change things.

Imac probably has something similar happen where he’s plays like a star and ends up on the court all the time, but I could at least see a scenario where he doesn’t add a ton to his game and ends up in a group of three with Rohde and Harris that rotates through the two other guard spots.

Still I think the most likely scenario is all three of Reece, Imac, and Dunn playing 32+ minutes. I’m biased though and think Ryan should have played 30 minutes/game last year though. I dont think there’s much he has to add to get to that role, just earn additional trust by virtue of being on the team for a year.

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If you flash forward to 3/4 through the season and this is the case, I think it means that we are very, very good. Or that our new guys suck. Either/or. Probably the former.

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Without going to look what was Imac’s minutes this past year?

I know this one for some reason so wont answer ha

Not looking, will guess ~20

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Whatever 53% of minutes is. So 21.2?

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Among non-guards:
So we had a 2nd team all ACC and 1st team all Defense guy average 27 min a game in 2021.
We had another ACC Defensive player of the year never average even 28 min a game in any season.
We had our best big this century never average more than 28 min per game and only did that once.
Another 2nd team all ACC and 1st team all defense guy only average more than 22 min per game his 5th year - and really only due to lack of depth in talent.
So sounds like you are saying that 2nd year Dunn will be better than 4th year Huff, Diakite, Gill, Wilkins, Key?
If so - then we are golden!!!

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I’ll guess 15.

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21 min

Ugh … UVA vs Wisconsin again!!!
Sheesh

I know… let’s make Kon wait til then to decide and winner takes all!!!

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Did you steal that from here? :wink: :rofl:

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