2023 UVa Offseason Chatter

[MaineWahoo]

@Gna2r

However, before we had Groves we only had Dunn, Minor and Buchanan.

And Bond. At least in his recruitment folks talked about him being able to slot into the 4 position.

[Wahooblue]

It prevented Dunn from having to play the 5 out of necessity in case of injury to Blake or minor

[MaineWahoo]

Article on redshirting in the Richmond Times Dispatch. Includes some quotes from Traudt, Bond, and Williford.

Redshirting makes college basketball players better. In the portal era, can...

[haney]

@DFresh11

Is he an adequate passer like BVP?

It doesn’t show up in his stats or the (admittedly brief) highlights I’ve seen, like it popped for Ben, even at a quick look. Which in some ways, means there’s less of a risk that Tony decides to go all in for like 30+ mpg. He has really always been more of a role player / specialist kind of guy than Ben. (I would have loved to see Ben play next to Traudt, which is one of the cruel ironies about the Ben v Traudt dynamic that, IMO, Tony is mostly to blame for, and then us fans, far in second in terms of blame).

@AdventiveQuasar

To engage with the rotation question a little more,

The thing that sticks in my craw is that Tony, a few days before last season saying that we had like 7 or 8 whatever guys in the rotation spots, and then 2 or 3 right behind them, and then come our MEAC opener, he panicked because the top guys weren’t that good and that perversely meant the guys behind them suffered… And then by the end of the season he was like playing guys we hadn’t seen all season (Taine and Papi). Quit the Wild Mood Swings. Play more guys to start and be a little more intentional and deliberate about picking who you like… (spoiler - this won’t happen)

@Hooandtrue

I think Gertrude at point guard would be incredible because I think what makes him special is what he can do with the ball in his hands.

This would be awesome, but losing the season this past year denied (1) him the ability to develop it more (ironically, without Tahaad), and (2) any of us other Fresh, really, any decent way to evaluate it, since he was almost always playing with another ballhandling guard (Wilcher et al on City Rocks, Cadeau, Tahaad in HS and in HS live period).

@dave92

Likelihood of making the ACC-season rotation

More or less agree with this likelihood, but I will point out that this may be the rare case where likelihood does not equal projected minutes. E.g., I think one or maybe two of the guys from your tier 3 have a decent shot of surpassing the guys in your tier 2 in PT.

[dave92]

@haney

I think one or maybe two of the guys from your tier 3 have a decent shot of surpassing the guys in your tier 2 in PT.

I think so too, in fact I almost went with Tier 2 as Groves only (“will play, but minutes TBD”), and Tier 3 as the other 6 guys, but that would just be a lazy dodge that only frames the question (“We have 6 guys competing for 3 rotation slots”) rather than attempts to answer it.

[DavetheWave]

@Jerome

I just can’t see him at the 3 honestly. His handle was really bad last year and that’s coming from one of the biggest Dunn stans you’ll find.

Jaylen Brown is 2nd team all NBA and still can’t dribble.

[DFresh11]

Thanks Haney. The double reverse irony for Elijah is the injury and rehab have allowed him to work on basic things like ball handling etc. it will pay dividends

As I have always said, BVPs best attribute for us was heating up the ball and distributing it really well on offense. Great hands and could get us settled on O. Or just jack up a 3. Just curious if Jacob is similar

[zh00s]

@Hooandtrue

Also pitching Gertrude that vision can help keep him engaged and focused if and when things do get tough.

Maybe. Point guard is also an orientation to the game - particularly facilitation. You can’t just gin up that orientation. If you don’t have that, it’s a hard thing to manifest. Building the right skill set alone doesn’t do it. It’s about a very specific role players gravitate toward and love to play.

[HiltonHeadHoo]

@DFresh11 Is Gertrude playing any semi-organized ball these days? When is last time he played in a game?

[DFresh11]

Definitely in the gym working on his game. Will ask if he is playing full 5 on 5 stuff yet.

[Jerome]

And the Heat absolutely exposed him in that series by…forcing him to dribble

[haney]

Who is the guy with the H on his shorts? I spy Justin Taylor, Malachi P, and A-Willy. Who am I missing?
https://twitter.com/DaminAltizer/status/1664261589531340801

[Wahooblue]

Brizzi

[WFS_HOO]

@dave92

Likelihood of making the ACC-season rotation:

Tier 1 (definitely big minutes): Reece, McKneely, Dunn, Minor
Tier 2 (probably in the rotation): Groves*, Bond, Rohde, Harris
Tier 3 (less surprising if they don’t make the cut**): Murray, Gertrude, Buchanan
Tier 4 (bench): A-Rob, How

*Groves could be Tier 1-A (he’ll play), but he’s not on the Reece/Dunn level of “big-minute” certainty
**They sit if: Murray gets leapfrogged; Elijah still gimpy; Buchanan not ready on D (or redshirted)

Lot of unknowns in those middle two tiers. Any one of those guys could shine or stumble.

I like your way of framing the discussion. Too many of the lineup projection type posts (as well as posts about which transfers we should have taken and what transfers will ensue) ignore the amount of uncertainty that surrounds next year (and has done so since the offseason started).

We didn’t know if Reece would come back.

We don’t know if Gertrude will be physically ready to contribute.

We don’t know if Minor is a viable option in P6 competition. Same for Rohde.

We kinda know what Groves is, but we don’t know if he can grasp the defense enough to play meaningful minutes.

We don’t know if Bond or Murray will make a leap.

The reality is there is a probability distribution around the outcome for most the guys on the roster, so people can pencil in minutes all they want but it’s just kind of a waste of time (have at it - I’m not saying don’t have fun with it).

What I like is that Reece coming back takes a lot of pressure off multiple of the new guys or previous bench guys having to work out really well for us to have a chance to make the tournament. Now we can more easily live with one of them being a miss. If minor just isn’t capable, maybe we can scheme around it if Rohde hits…etc.

[Hoosnick]

@dave92

Likelihood of making the ACC-season rotation:

Tier 1 (definitely big minutes): Reece, McKneely, Dunn, Minor
Tier 2 (probably in the rotation): Groves*, Bond, Rohde, Harris
Tier 3 (less surprising if they don’t make the cut**): Murray, Gertrude, Buchanan
Tier 4 (bench): A-Rob, How

I largely agree here. I would only add that all of Tier 2 and 3 likely think they’re in Tier 2 (and some may believe they’ll land in Tier 1). Given that several will only play sparsely, Tony and the coaching staff will need to further cultivate and demonstrate their motivation skills. Also, as a side note, I don’t see how Buchanan doesn’t play regularly if he isn’t hurt, although those might be small minutes.

[Kamikaze_Hoo]

@WFS_HOO

If Minor just isn’t capable …

That would be a tough contingency to surmount.

[rushdacote]

I wish we hadn’t gotten Groves. (Please prove me wrong, Groves. I’ll be rooting hard for you now that you’re here.)

My dream would be a 9 man rotation of Beeks, Harris, IMac, Rohde, Gertrude, Bond, Dunn, Buchanan, and Minor. And Taine (10th) if he can hack it. No Groves or Robinson.

[WFS_HOO]

@Kamikaze_Hoo

That would be a tough contingency to surmount.

Maybe. Maybe not. I tend to agree, but maybe Buchanan is readier than we’ve seen from a first year big man. Maybe Dunn can do what BVP did as small ball center. Maybe we can shoot lights out and make up for it. I’m just saying we don’t know a whole lot about a lot of what we’ve got.

[dave92]

@Kamikaze_Hoo

@WFS_HOO

If Minor just isn’t capable …

That would be a tough contingency to surmount.

That’s why I put Minor in my Tier 1 of PT probability. Not because we know he’ll pan out at this level, but because even if he’s only “serviceable”, we need the minutes from him. Then again…

@WFS_HOO

maybe Buchanan is readier than we’ve seen from a first year big man. Maybe Dunn can do what BVP did as small ball center. Maybe we can shoot lights out and make up for it.

This is all true too. This year is wide open.

[haney]

Hey everyone! It’s time for Haney’s annual “the non-con schedule is too good / not good enough” gripe. This year, the answer is: not good enough.

Florida / Memphis / 2 of WVU-SMU-Wisconsin

Looking at Torvik (computer) and 3 human rankings (Rothstein, Parrish, Goodman), only one of those teams is in the top 25 of any of them, Florida in Torvik and that’s just wrong. WVU will be in disarray early b/c of transfers and Huggy Bear’s suspension. Wisconsin will be their typical 8 or 9-seed or so. SMU and Memphis are probably not tourney teams.