it’s definitely different. NCAA has UVA at 6.52 and 11th place compared to 6.38 and 12th on torvik
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I get what you’re saying. But I think that applies more to the amateurs like us.
- Being a committee member would be really cool! So can’t feel sorry for that.
- The many different metrics allow members to account for manipulation of schedule. I think WAB is an example of that to a degree. And NET a reaction to flaws within RPI that teams took advantage of in the past.
- Many metrics gives the committee a cloak to hide under when making human (or political/TV $ motivated) deviations.
- It’s a billion dollar event. Important to create the most competitive product, as well as bracketology and the bubble to generate views/$.
But as a fan, i’m with you and do wish we had more direction on what metrics were important.
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This is how I see it too. People in a locked room are making the choices and it will include other intangibles like location, interesting or undesirable matchups, etc. But they have plenty of metrics to help them decide or to justify whatever decisions they want to make.
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Torvik WAB uses the Torvik T-Rank as the underlying model and the NCAA WAB uses the NET as the underlying model. Otherwise the same I believe.
Really could use a Butler win at DePaul to help get them away from Q3 loss territory (currently 88 in NET). They’re inching closer and closer each week. Xavier, Marquette, and Georgetown should keep them safe but dropping 8 spots in a day this late in the season isn’t fun.
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May not have to worry about Liberty now - my daughter was at the game - needless to say hope is down there … the only 2 good teams in Conference USA lost yestreday so that league gets a 15 or 16 seed now.
Just a bonkers day in that conf tourney - 4 teams with losing records won plus a team that was 15-14…
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There are 4 conferences that have only 2 teams or less with winning records … crazy.
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I know Lunardi sucks at bracketology but his most recent update is pretty much the dream path if we’re a 4 seed. Cal Baptist in the first round who should probably be a 14 seed, Tennessee in 2nd round who I think is nothing special, UConn as the 1 seed who is 9th on Kenpom and not in the truly top elite tier in my opinion.
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If we’re a 4 seed I just want to avoid Michigan’s bracket. I’ll take our chances against most of the other 1’s.
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My prior on this is our best path to victory in round 2 is (1) hot shooting or (2) front court advantage.
On #1, Tennessee has a very good defense and has good 3pt defense
On #2, they seem to match us pretty well on that end.
TBH, if I could pick a 4/5 seed to play in the second round, it’d be Vandy.
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have you factored in the Duke Miles co-efficient
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Vandy would 100% be the most annoying game, from an LRA thread perspective.
Also Bama w/o Bediako also could be a good matchup.
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Tennessee is also the strongest projected 5-seed by a decent bit. Give me Arkansas. Acuff is a stud, but their defense has only been OK and has been especially vulnerable on the boards and inside the arc. And their offense is all about high percentage 2P shooting (and low turnovers), which lines up with our defensive strength inside.
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Personally would rather face a 9+ loss Rick Barnes team in the tournament vs a Calipari team but also recognize Vols are 13th on kenpom so maybe not as easy as I thought initially
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are we protected from being in Duke’s region?
I think if Virginia Tech or California make it in as the 9th ACC team, we no longer are protected from it. A lot of the conference rules get eased once a 9th team from a conference makes it but would need to check all the scenarios they lay out.
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I believe so unless another ACC team creeps into the top 4, but even then I think it has to be unavoidable.
Supposed to be, yes. Bracketing rules say that teams 1-4 in a region cannot be from the same conference until it is unavoidable. I’d interpret that to mean if there are 2 ACC teams getting seeded 1-4 they’d definitely be separate and then work the conferences with more teams in as they go.
The potential S16 rematch isn’t officially prohibited, but I think the committee does its best to avoid conference pairings for as long as possible. I think they try to put a 1 seed Duke, 4 seed Virginia and 5 seed UNC in different regions if they can.
- Teams from the same conference:
- Cannot meet before the regional final if they played three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
- Cannot meet before the regional semifinal if they played twice.
- May meet as early as the second round if they played once or not at all.
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In theory we could be in the same region as them if we both dropped to a five and did not play them in the ACC Tournament.