To synthesize this: I think itāll be a weird thing where thereās no middle ground.
if we win today we are a lock for 4 no matter what. If we win the ACCT we are a high 3, possibly 2 seed.
But nothing in between will matter.
3 Likes
I think UVA just locked up a top 4 seed with that win. Should be top 12 in WAB entering the ACCT. 3 seed is definitely on the table.
5 Likes
3 seed would be huge
A 4 seed with a 5 seed Arkansas personally spooks me
1 Like
I think weād need to make the ACC title game and play well against Duke to get a 3. Very possible but difficult.
1 Like
Hot take I think our quarterfinal game could be more difficult than potential semifinal
2 Likes
Are you predicting Miami losing in the quarters? Or just not impressed with the Canes?
I mean theoretically we could lose the QF to BC, but yea, assuming the QF is Q1 or decent Q2 I think we get the 4. 3/5 of the 5s are from the SEC so itās not like they can all pick up three Q1 wins
I think Miami played their absolute best game against us the first time. Tough to replicate. We got lucky with an āinjuryā that ended up being a long sub but still idk if they can replicate thatā¦
I donāt really want to see Louisville or State. Louisville with brown might be tough if heās good to go. And itās really hard to beat a team 3 times + state can shoot you out of a gym when theyāre one. Just 2 tough ones IMO and theyāre probably our most likely 2. Might end up even playing bothā¦
3 Likes
They punked us inside, Iām a little scared of them.
I believe weāre closer to a 3 seed than a 5 seed.
7 Likes
Right now Iād agree. In the above hypothetical where we lose a quarterfinal to a Boston college weād probably be a 5. Win against anyone and we should be right at the top of the 4 line, matchup dependent from there weād have a great opportunity to get to a 3 seed. Weād really prefer that 3 lineā¦
1 Like
Weāre the 3rd 4 seed on bracket matrix just ahead of Kansas. Thereās a greater than 1 point average seed between Kansas and the top 5 seed. Thats the largest gap between any 2 spots on the matrix.
I donāt think thereās any danger of falling to 5 and it would take winning the ACCT to get up to 3. Getting a littler within the 4 line is important for getting Greenville or Tampa instead of San Diego or Portland though.
4 Likes
Metrics blah blah blah, just wild that a 27-4 major conf team is NOT at least a 3
6 Likes
UVA is going to be like 1.5+ WAB ahead of 20th entering Thursday. idk that a loss to BC knocks them to a 5 by itself. would require some other teams to go on runs. I guess we just need to root for the 7 seed to win. facing someone like BC is a lose/lose.
also I really dont think a finals appearance is a requirement for a 3 seed. if UVA gets a Q1 win in the QF and Q1 loss in the semis a 3 seed is definitely possible, depending on what happens elsewhere today, tomorrow, and next week.
1 Like
Also UConn HAS to be off the 1 line with that loss to Marquette, right?
4 Likes
The 3 line is pretty strong. Thatās the only reason I think weād need to get to the ACC final. Itās not necessarily that weāre not deserving.
I think UVA is going to be top 12 in WAB entering next week (might be possible for TTU to jump us with a win @ BYU). They arguably should be on the 3 line right now. Itās not like thereās some huge gap that needs to be made up. If Nebraska, Illinois or Purdue loses their last regular season game (barring a run to the finals) or takes a loss in the B1G QF UVA should jump them with a Q1 win in the QF.
One big question I have is where the committee would have Gonzaga right now. They SHOULD be a 4 and behind UVA. UVAās resume is just so much better, but a lot of bracketologists have Gonzaga on the 3 line.
1 Like
I could see us jumping Purdue or Nebraska. Theyāve been shaky. Weāre not jumping Illinois though. I think weād jump Iowa St before weād jump Illinois.
Illinois has great efficiency metrics but their resume metrics are worse than Purdue and Nebraska entering today. Theyāre BARELY ahead of UVA in WAB.
I guess it depends on how much the committee weights NET rankings vs resume metrics.
Illinois won at Purdue and at Nebraska.