Based on last weeks top 16 seed reveal and results that followed, I think we need to pass four of Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Vandy, Kansas, and Nebraska in order to get a 3 seed. That assumes the 1 and 2 seeds are out of range to pass (we would pass some of them if we literally won out but more so thinking about if we win games we are favored to win), and that Florida and now Mich St are too far ahead to pass. Mich St win at Purdue last night was a big hit to our 3 seed chances in my opinion.
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Had the same thought when I saw the score this morning. That one was tough. Purdue needed to win that to keep MSU in the muck with us.
I think TTU and Gonzaga are pretty easily passable. Weāve already passed them both on WAB and TTU will have Toppinās injury held against them. We might be above them both already if they had to make the bracket today honestly.
Vandyās schedule is sort of tough down the stretch, they see Kentucky and Tennessee, so there is a window there. Nebraska still has Iowa and the Los Angeles teams, so them picking up a loss or two wouldnāt shock me either.
I donāt see us passing Kansas.
It looks like a small but very real window to move up a line (without beating Duke). The other options for advancement probably require ACCT wins against 2 tournament caliber teams, and I am really struggling to project the ACC bracket right now. This feels like an unusually clustered group of teams vying for the 3-7 spots this year (Iām sure there have been similarly tight races in the past Iām forgetting that someone will remind me of).
We basically need to gain half a WAB on the teams above us. We are about .3 back right now, but since we see Wake and VT at home, we donāt pick up much for those wins. Unless we beat Duke, we will likely lose WAB ground on the pack as we finish the regular season. (Vandy and Nebraska play the majority of their remaining games away against decent teams, so they are in a very favorable position to pick up some WAB as the season closes out).
*not a bracketologist
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They got pounded by Iowa state at Mackey. Thatās probably pushing that number quite a bit
Yeah I was looking at the bracket the other day and even with a Duke win, felt there was a shot we still end up on the 4 line based on what those in front of us do and how the committee values our other wins.
The top of the Big 10 and 12 are just trading wins. Unless one of them loses to a bottom tier team (and not sure many of those remaining for the top seeds) not much hope of falling.
Also have Arkansas and Alabama lurking. Those are the two teams I really donāt want to play (at least Arkansas) in a second round matchup.
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Iād be thrilled to be a 3. 14s and 6s just seem much less scary this year (maybe most years) than 13s and 5s.
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Getting way ahead of myself, but our second round matchup should be against one of these teams. Fun storylines abound:
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We are going to show Ricky P that 2 PGs who play together a bunch > 1 not-PG that you pretend to call a PG for reasons
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Or Byington that two PGs are better than five.
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Vandy got cowardly and just removed positions from their roster page all together this season. Terrible commitment to the bit
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But we remember. Weāll always remember.
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Wow, Byington shook by Mr Miles
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Iād prefer to play anyone in the second round
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So no preference on who we play? Or stating just happy to be there?
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There is potential for a seven way tie atop the Sun Belt after tonightās games (the final of the regular season). Because of the conferenceās stepladder bracket structure, that could mean a difference between playing on Thursday and playing on Sunday
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Arkansas by far the scariest, Tennessee and Vandy feel like coin flips (maybe slight preference for Vandy?), and Iām not scared of St. Johnās, Alabama, or TTU.
Iāll never not be scared of Izzo 
Iād feel pretty good about a 3 seed if we beat Duke. Thatād basically be a full WAB. Donāt know if weād have the rest of the resume/predictives to hop into the 2 seed conversation, but our WAB would have us in there, and Iād think a 3 would be the worst weād end up with at that point. That would end up being one of the best wins of the season since it would be in Cameron.
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Iāve seen multiple projections of UVA vs Arkansas in the Michigan region. Seems like worst case scenario
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At least it would engage my Kentucky in-laws on my side. I normally only get a cursory pro-UVa text from them about Louisville games, but they might hate Cal just as much.
Acuff would be kind of a nightmare for us, but my bull case for that matchup is that Acuff is small enough for Chance to guard without giving up much size, so we might stand a decent chance and be able to use Hall on their other guys. Any volume scoring perimeter guy scares me thoughā¦
The rest of the team I think we could handle.
Shots fired by a Georgetown manager. 
https://twitter.com/johnkurkjian_/status/2027438696534888696?s=46&t=vkjgQUekzGC7z44tIfnIRQ
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Arkansas State is the highest rated team in the Sun Belt and finished in a six way for 2nd in the league standingsā¦ they will have to win five games in five days
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Oh wow. Arizona out to big early lead over Kansas, 23-8.
Lots of lopsided games against presumptive one seeds this week.
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