There’s this weird dichotomy where they continue to be viewed by the media as the plucky underdogs even though they typically get every benefit of the doubt and more often than not are overrated than they are underrated.
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It is actually crazy how seeding can affect performance in the madness?
Gonzaga has been seeded worse than a five seed 9 times in the last 25 years.
They only got to the sweet 16 once out of those 9 times and never farther.
Weird how they don’t advance when they have to play good teams earlier in the madness…
Just weird. 
Or don’t advance when they are not as good (see seeding).
This beef feels very 2-3 years ago.
It’s also not clear to me if your beef is with the committee or with the media? Or both?
The national media narrative, IMO, the past 2-3 years or so has been that the Zags probably lost their window to be a final 4 or maybe just natty caliber team. There were some thoughts toward the end of the noncon this year that maybe they were still a darkhorse natty contender, but then Braden Huff got hurt, and they’re once again more or less non-relevant on the national scene.
And fwiw, I think they’re joining the new Pac-12 next year…
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Benefit of the doubt in what way? There are subjective ways for the committee to interpret resumes, but their seeding has been in line with their efficiency rankings, or even underseeded in some years:
- 2025: T-Rank #11 pre-tournament, 8-seed in NCAAT
- 2024: T-Rank #14, 5-seed
- 2023: T-Rank #10, 3-seed
- 2022 and before: A bunch of #1 rankings and #1 seeds
This year they are #14 in T-Rank and #10 in WAB (or #5 in NET and #14 in NCAA WAB if you prefer). That’s solid 3- or 4-seed territory.
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Yea you cannot say Gonzaga gets the benefit of the doubt. They got an eight seed with top ten metrics last year
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They’ve also made the sweet 16 or better 9 of the last 10 tournaments. That’s better than Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, probably all other teams (though I don’t have the time to check). The Gonzaga is overrated takes are old at this point.
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BuT wHy Is GrÜnLoH iN tHe StArTiNg LiNeUp???
https://twitter.com/evanmiya/status/2024887113712353606?s=46&t=vkjgQUekzGC7z44tIfnIRQ
To be fair, I am taking one specific data point and reigniting a debate that (I think) has mostly been settled because of Ugo’s love of being part of the Bench Mob.
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I think this is real but I also think if you re ran the numbers for conference play/last 45 days he wouldn’t be on this list
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The Grünloh thing seems so clearly like a freshman wall and Odom has already adapted to it by playing Ugo more. He’s not even that bad, Ugo has just been awesome lately.
It’s such a luxury problem to complain about. Most teams barely have 1 functional center as good as Grünloh.
Hes still very talented. Let him sort it out through playing. It’s not costing us games and Ugo probably can’t even play a ton more minutes anyways.
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Yeah, I think this “fan debate” is largely settled (with a few probable exceptions), and I think most are okay with the take you and tonyburnertt espouse - just let him play through it. When both are on, we are so much better.
I go back to a point I made elsewhere. What I think elevates this team, what gives me hope that this season could be even more surprising, is the collective. I think there are a lot of better starting 5s than Virginia has (maybe even within our team), but it’s the depth and the flexible combinations and the change of pace from employing this so liberally that could let this team be great. The instant energy from the bench mob, the ability to shift to more power or more finesse in the frontcourt along with dropping in some better shooting from the wing, and/or better ball handling by splitting the PG duties among two natural point guards with exceptional assist to to ratios. It makes us very hard to prepare for and play against, because we can present so many different looks, each of which can require different defensive approaches.
It’s like a far more sophisticated version of mixing and matching man and zone defense. When a team suddenly throws a 1-3-1 at you after playing man, you often see a couple of possessions of adjustment from the offense. We wrongfoot teams.
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And Grünloh has had two good games in a row, so perhaps things are coming back around.
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I feel like I’ve been the president of the Grünloh haters’ club but I have been very happy with his play the last two games. Maybe playing Ugo more has given him more energy when he comes in?? I’m not sure, but he’s definitely been better the last two games, both ends.
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Yea this isn’t huge without context but his plus minus has been better than Ugo past two games
Hmm, I don’t think it’s Ugo playing more, because Johann continued to struggle for a few weeks when Ugo’s minutes outpaced his.
Honestly, mostly I think it’s just the ebbs and flows of the season – freshman wall, level of competition, how homesick he is – I think the lesson to learn is that, for most players, and for freshmen particularly, there is going to be a higher degree of variance. Don’t overrate one game or a short stretch. If you believe in the player, you choose the course you think will develop them the best without hurting the team.
Which is what Odom did, leaving him as a starter, but decreasing his minutes and increasing Ugo’s while he (hopefully) worked through it. It was a perfect coaching reaction – not too drastic but appreciable, and hopefully that was the right approach and we’ll see Johann return to his early season form to complement the growth into form of late season Ugo.
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Glue guys: players who don’t actually do anything but have great plus minuses while being carried by actual producers?
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Where Virginia will be seeded in the ACC tournament depending on closing record. >1% chance only according to playoff status
5-0: 1 seed
4-1: 1-2 seed (most likely 2)
3-2: 1-4 seed (most likely 2)
2-3: 2-5 seed (most likely 3)
1-4: 3-6 seed (most likely 5)
0-5: 4-8 seed (most likely 6)
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Something worth noting. If we are a top four seed we cannot be placed in the same region as Duke. Assuming Duke does not get passed by UConn, they will play in DC for S16/E8. Do we actually want a five seed (probably not but I say yes so I could perhaps go)
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