This is definitely true, I’d just add that it’s just a lot harder to have an offense that is good without good three-point shooting. You have to work insanely hard at something else to generate good looks if your spacing is all screwed up, whether it be offensive rebounding, screening the crap out of things, etc.
I think our team right now is a good example - they’ve actually become pretty competent on offense by working their tails off setting screens and shooting off of curls in the mid range, etc. But all of that is exhausting and difficult to perfect. Having just one really dangerous three-point shooter would open things up so much and not require our level of execution to be extraordinary to have a ‘good’ offense.
I mean, 6 isnt nothing… especially if you play as many close games as we usually do. Adding an extra 3 pointer made to 6 different games over the course of a season probably turns at least one 1-2pt loss into a win
Obviously not a huge deal, but when you’re trying to win titles that could be the difference between starting the tourney as a 2 seed vs a 4 seed or something like that
Sure, I agree with you. It’s not nothing, maybe it swings a game or 2 or 3 and a seed line or 2. But I don’t think it’s the difference between a high upside elite championship caliber team and a mediocre one with limited upside.
Kentucky …
They have the best shooter in the SEC in Grady. If you watch their games - his man never ever helps his teammates and stays glued to him. This creates space and also forces the other 4 guys to get all the defensive rebounds.
Also - if you’re saying we will have the best rebounder of this century next year - then I’m ok with not making as many threes. Oscar gobbles up a ton of misses for 2nd chance points. We don’t do that and never have.
My larger point is that our offense creates jump shots. A lot of them. Very few low post post ups. Very few designed plays to get downhill off ball screens. Would love more of this with Reece and anyone else as screener. Or Imagine Isaac and Isaac in screen and rolls for each other?
The 2016 Villanova team???
Yes they shot 36.2% on the season. But guess what they shot in the madness from threeland? 56/112 from 3 in those 6 games … yes you read that right - 50% from 3. On high volume.
Oh and by the way they also made 83 Free Throws on 102 attempts (81%) in 6 games. When’s the last time UVA made 83 free throws over a 6 game span while shooting 50% from 3?
The 2016 UNC team?? They led the nation in offensive rebounding and led the nation in total rebounding… They averaged 14 offensive rebounds per game in the madness. And they still had squeakers against Gonzaga, Kentucky and Oregon.
Again if we can be top 25 in rebounding and/or FT attempts/makes …or steals and getting points off turnovers … then maybe we could afford to shoot worse from the 3 point line.
Our teams have never done any of those things.
Our opponents have taken 573 threes vs us this year so far. So the total will surpass 600.
Let’s take 600 as a baseline. We are shooting 32.1% translating to 193 threes.
The top 5 teams in the ACC are all above 37%.
The top 73 teams in the country are all at 36% or better.
So if we were just 73rd, that would translate to 72 more points scored. We have the fewest possessions of anyone in the country (358th) - ugh - a discussion for another time … Just moving to the 334th slowest team would generate an additional 5 possessions per game.
Hmmmm - plug in a few of those points vs. Iowa or FSU or Navy or JMU or Wake or Duke or Notre Dame?
So those 72 points are much larger for us than any other team in the nation.
I’m having trouble following you, Dave. You’re talking about individual 3-pt % thresholds, then full season team attempts, then a few cherry picked outlier NCAA tournament stats from past seasons.
Yes I was saying on our team he does. And the 3 man too. Unless Reece shoots 40% on 5 a game.
And yes I disagree with the notion it’s just about the team %. Having at least 2 guys in the rotation that have Guy or Ty gravity (the Steph effect) makes so much difference in making it easier for everyone else.
Spacing is huge when one guy is hugged everywhere he goes. If 2 guys are - then all the others get to play 4 on 3 and 3 on 2 a ton…
And yes it’s not just about % … it’s about reputation and whether dudes actually hard guard our dudes beyond the arc.
Reece is shooting 35% from 3 in Acc games which would be an ok team average for us this year. And nobody guards him there. Which makes it really hard for him to penetrate because also nobody guards Clark or Franklin there. Also makes it hard for the bugs to operate in a clogged paint
I didn’t cherry pick those stats - a previous poster had mentioned that Villanova and UNC and Duke won it all while not having great 3 point shooting - so I went back to look how they did it.
I know I’m a little late to the party here, but here are a few of my thoughts on the offensive-spacing discussion:
It’s really hard to have an elite offense without players that can “bend” defenses in some way — commanding enough attention w/ some aspect of their game to force the defense to react. I feel like this is pretty common-sense.
Having really good shooters is one way to bend a defense, but it definitely isn’t the only way, and having spacing isn’t effective unless you also have someone who can get into the paint and collapse the defense. Purdue (#1 offense in country) runs their offense through Jaden Ivey (downhill guard with a spotty jumper), Zach Edey (zero jump shot), and Trevion Williams (better shooter than Edey, but can’t space to the 3pt line). Sure, they have Sasha Stefanovic (that white-whale “40% shooter” who just sprints around screens looking to fire threes whenever possible), but that’s one dude. Duke is #6 in offensive efficiency per KenPom, and they have zero dudes in the rotation who can shoot threes on the move. But they generate good looks b/c of Paolo’s post-ups, Wendell Green’s drives, and Mark Williams’s work as a roll man collapsing the defense.
“Shooters” aren’t defined just by 3P%, because dudes don’t get their threes in the same way. Look at Iowa last year, who had two elite shooters — Jordan Bohannon 39% on 6.6 threes/game and Luka Garza 44% on 3.2 threes/game. Bohannon commanded a ton more attention on the perimeter than Garza, though, because a) he’s able to shoot on the move, while Garza needed to square up b) he’s able to shoot off the dribble, while Garza was mostly a catch-and-shoot 3pt threat and c) he has an extremely quick release compared to Garza’s two-motion shot.
This ties into 2 and 3 in a more UVA-specific way… it isn’t accurate or fair to quantify a guy’s impact on spacing as a binary “shooter” or “non-shooter” designation. Here’s how I see each main guy on the current roster’s effect on spacing:
Kihei: historically a hesitant shooter but has been letting it fly recently, especially on the move. More willing to shoot off the dribble than anyone else on the roster. Short, has a comparatively slow release with a low release point (though he’s definitely improved in this aspect), so you can afford to play off him a little bit on the perimeter. As Fresh said earlier, dare him to take semi-contested 3s and live with the results if he knocks em down. You’re better off doing that than letting him beat his defender into the paint/midrange area, where he’s really good at playmaking for big men around the rim.
Reece: extremely hesitant shooter who will only take set threes and only if left wide open. Not a threat to shoot off the dribble from 3, though he will take the occasional midrange at the end of the shot clock. However, he’s really athletic and explosive attacking the basket, especially if he can get a head of steam downhill, so you don’t want to sag off him entirely — he’s too good at using open space to score/playmake (see: his work vs. Syracuse zone).
Armaan: catch-and-shoot guy from three, though he will take the occasional one-dribble three against aggressive closeouts to get an open look. Mostly a set shooter from three; however, inside the arc, he’s a threat to curl into midrange jumpers. You have to stay attached to him coming around blocker-mover down screens, because when he gets space, he’s really good at curling & dribbling into midrange jumpers/floaters/layups off of those midrange catches. If he sees a big man in the paint, he’s content to pull up for a jump shot from 10-12 feet (contrast with Reece).
Jayden: not a threat to shoot from three, though he has very rarely popped to the corner and taken a few. Has an excellent set-shot midrange game — he feasts as the blocker in blocker-mover by popping to the 10-16 foot midrange area and knocking down jump shots. More comfortable shooting from the right side of the floor for some reason. He’s not a threat to take “off-dribble” jump shots — when he gets the ball in jumpshot range, he’s either shooting it immediately or going into a post move. Threat as a screener to roll to the basket; doesn’t have above-the-rim athleticism but loves absorbing & finishing through contact, so you can’t lose him as a roller. Very good at opportunistically sneaking in behind a drives for offensive rebound putbacks/receiving dump-off passes for easy layups. Threat around the basket.
Papi: zero threat as a shooter, from either three or in the midrange. Solid screener in mover-blocker system due to size & physicality, but doesn’t have great hands as a roll man, so doesn’t demand quite the same amount of attention rolling as Gardner does. Can post up against almost anyone due to his size, but rarely gets post entry passes, and takes a little while to get into his bag & actually make a move. Not a great athlete, but is plenty capable of finishing above the rim.
So, for example, even though Jayden and Papi are both bigs who don’t shoot threes, Jayden commands a lot more defensive attention due to a) his midrange shooting ability and b) his hands/skill catching the ball and finishing around the basket. Even though Reece isn’t a three-point shooter, he still commands attention when he’s on the perimeter because he’s a constant threat to drive & put pressure on the rim. Even though Kihei has become a good volume & percentage three-point shooter, his size & shooting motion mean that defenses can afford to play off him more than some knockdown three-point shooters.
Having players who can shoot the ball is definitely better than the alternative. But I think it’s pretty reductive to distill a lineup to simply “we have X number of shooters on the floor.” Teams can play elite offense with mediocre shooters, and teams with elite shooters but no playmakers to set the table or big men to draw attention in the paint can have mediocre offenses
In defense if the “we need good shooters” mob, we probably do under Bennett. You’re not luring bucket getters to play for him. Not very often anyway. The closest we’ve had were Jerome and Brogdon, guys who developed into that somewhat over their time. Definitely different ways to skin the cat but by design TB’s teams need to take and make 3s at a high rate.
But yes yes yes to all of Ben’s points about 3P% not being the end all measure of shooting. Being a threat matters, a lot.
It’s pretty damn remarkable the way this UVA team has become solid offensively with no real shooting threats and no guards that can reliably go get a bucket on their own. Just incredible really.
These discussions are why I love this damn site. Don’t have time right this second to distill my thoughts but this got the juices flowing which I love.
Just to throw the discussion a bone. In high school Kadin was taking and making NBA 3’s. Not sure on what volume but i remember a local scout in a scouting report mention that he had NBA 3 point range … For whatever its worth. Ok carry on.
