I’d think it’s a very good thing if Tony moves off either his 2-big or 2-PG lineup, but I’m also starting to think the odds are diminishing. Though sometimes Tony will make tweaks during the exam or Xmas breaks…
Part of me thinks Taine has now joined the 7-man rotation or so, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he gets green team minutes for 10-games but then we insert him into the game with a minute left to hit a big shot at Cassell or wherever. I can’t really read Tony…
Maybe I am not remembering correctly but I thought JWilly mentioned there would be some tweaks over the break during one of the podcasts. Maybe he only mentioned that if there needed to be tweaks it would be done during the break.
Not sure if anyone remarked about this, but Tony heavily implies at the 8 minute mark that Kihei isn’t gonna be using the extra Covid year. It could always end up happening but seems to be far from a sure thing as some have previously claimed.
Bart Torvik considers 87 teams to be High Major (ACC, American, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, Big East).
UVA ranks among the 87 High Major teams through 12/8
Adjusted Offense = 60th
Adjusted Defense = 49th
Overall = 59th
Edit: This does not include any preseason ratings. Strictly based off of results of games played this year.
Damn. Need to move up 2 spots to get into the top 2/3s.
Thinking back to transfer recruiting…Tranner Groves is leading scorer and rebounder, shooting 40% from 3 at OU…would have been nice to pair him with Gardner and let Kadin continue to develop at a slower pace…
Groves and Gardner would not have both come
Then I’d rather have Gardner because I think we’ll get him for 2 years and Groves over Gardner wouldn’t have made this a tournament team anyway.
Indeed. We’d have to replace Gardner with LeBron to gain enough value to offset 2 of our 3 backcourt guys posting Morsell-like 3FG%.
Just a reminder…
https://twitter.com/thesabre/status/1469296789408862209?t=cd5s1Pg91M49gOe4FQCGTg&s=19
Via Bart Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble metric, here is where Virginia stands.
Non conference Wins Above Bubble (assuming a win over FDU) = -1.27
This means UVA is 1.27 wins short of where a bubble team would be against their schedule.
The 20 conference games would allow for a chance to pick up a total of 9.26 WAB, subtract 1 win, subtract 1 WAB.
11-9 or worse, no chance regardless of who the wins are against.
12-8 = 1.26 WAB conference and -0.01 for the season
Puts us on the bubble, likely requires at least 2 wins or maybe 3 in ACC tournament if I had to guess.
13-7 = 2.26 WAB conference and 0.99 for the season
Puts us on the bubble, likely requires some big wins due to the bad losses. 2 ACC tournament wins would likely do it, 1 would cause some perspiration on Selection Sunday.
14-6 = 3.26 WAB conference and 1.99 for the season
I think this puts us in the “should be in” category regardless of who the wins/losses are against. 1 ACC tourney win probably “locks” but 0 would most likely be back on the bubble
Tough hill to climb, hopefully things click and we give ourselves a shot!
Never thought we would be in this spot but name brand will do us wonders when going up against something like Seton Hall for a bubble slot
So, in a nutshell, combining conference play and the ACC tournament, 14 or more wins likely gets us into the NCAA tournament, 12-13 puts us genuinely on the bubble, and 11 or less wins we’re definitely out. That feels about right.
Of course, that’s based on early expectations. Once we’re into late February and early March and see the specifics we’d have a better idea of how things work out.
Personally, I think we end up around 12 wins combined and just miss, but I’d love to be wrong.
14 is a stone cold lock. There has not been a power conference team go .700 or better in conference (whether 12-4, 13-5, or 14-6) miss the tournament since at least the quad system is implemented. Or at least that I could find going through the football P5+ Big East. And that includes teams from some very down Pac 12 seasons.
I think I said this previously, but I would guess their noncon looked better than our non-con will look come March (with Navy and Iowa in their proper quads). Plus 20-game schedules do us no favors, and they are fairly new.
Right now, we are 1-1 / 0-2 / 1-1 / 4-0 in Quads 1-4. I’m betting on Providence and Navy slipping (into Quad 2/3, respectively). [Edit - sorry, removing Pitt it’s 3-0 in Quad 4. Also, Iowa is already Quad 2 and won’t slip. slight chance of bumping up].
It’s all a bit moot, though, because 14-6 is starting to look pretty unlikely…
There have been teams with bad OOC. Going .700 or better in a power conference is damn hard and the committee rewards every team that accomplishes it. Think y’all are forgetting how weak the bubble gets towards the bottom.
You are correct it’s a moot point since this team isn’t coming close to that ACC record. Because it’s damn hard to do and this team isn’t good enough to do it.
Untrue. Nebraska in 2018 went 13-5 (.722) in the B1G and went to the NIT. They went 9-4 against a mediocre OOC slate (Kansas, Creighton, a mediocre St Johns and UCF were their losses) and it was a down year for the B1G (and Nebraska had a weirdly easy conference schedule that year) so the committee didn’t give them much credit for beating up on bad Rutgers and Minnesota squads. KenPom had them at 55th after the season was done.
I have no idea how their squad was comprised, but from a schedule and performance standpoint I feel a strong parallel to this year’s team.
Thank for checking behind me. No easy way (at last that I found) to check that didn’t leave a ton opportunity for missing a team or two. So is that Nebraska team the whole list or did you find more? Or even better did you find a quick way to check lol
Oh, sure, I just happened to have remembered it because I remember what a big deal it was at the time that Nebraska didn’t make the NCAA’s with that conference record. Nebraska did have some bad luck in that they somehow drew Michigan as their first round game in the B1G tournament and lost. If they’d gotten, say, Iowa in the first round, beaten them, and THEN lost to Michigan they’d probably have made it as an 8 or even 7 seed.
If this team goes all 2019-2020 and somehow goes 14-6, I think they’re almost certainly in. But I agree that’s extremely unlikely.
Isaac Traudt coming up on ESPNU after this game.
Man watching Julian Phillips guard all 5 positions on the floor (we cant outbid LSU anyways but still)