The fact that whoever was filming called their shot before he jumps makes this video for me.
Whatās the play tomorrow night @BDragon @fivesheff
Honestly Iām having a hard time with this one. Line is steady with Michigan-4.5. The O/U is 56.5.
This is one where I feel like Vegas is playing the game perfectly. I have some thoughts and will dive in in the AM. But I think this is going to bw a helluva wild game
So Iāve been looking at the National Championship match up last night and this morning, and it may be the first time that I am at a loss for thoughts and predictions.
A lot of money is coming in on the Huskies and thatās not too surprising. Championships games tend to see a large influx of money on the underdog as people try to get an big win. I tend to not like to be on the side of the public. Because of that give me Michigan on the Money Line of -192. The spread is sitting at -4.5 and Iām not sure I want to touch that just yet.
The other intriguing bet for me is the O/U. Currently itās sitting at 56.5. Iām leaning for a small wager on the under here, knowing itās likely I am throwing that money away. My hope is the Michigan offense line does what it does best and leans on the Washington front 7 and wears them down as the night goes on. Iām also hoping UofM goes on one of their 7min drives and choke the clock out. The best way to stop Penix Jr. is to keep him off the field. In doing so it also will help guide me to an under.
Michigan ML -192
Under 56.5
Itās an interesting game in part because Washington is an interesting team. Usually the team with the more potent offense is giving the points because most schmucks like me can only envision the better offense getting on track and running up the score beyond the point spread. But here, the team with the potent offense is the team that always plays one-score games. Michigan is the team with the greater number of blowouts.
But those blowouts were in the Big 10 against the likes of Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Penn State, and Iowa, whose offenses managed about 7 points per game against the Wolverines. Sure, Michiganās defense is good but the offenses of these Big 10 teams and the quarterback play (looking at you Drew Allar) was often atrocious.
The Ohio State game this year is perhaps instructive because the Buckeyes have a number of quality receivers, as do the Huskies. Michigan held Ohio State to 271 yards passing and got two interceptions. Individually, Marvin Harrison Jr. went 5 for 118, Julian Fleming caught 3 for 58, and Emeke Egbuka snagged 3 for 25. Ohio Stateās QB, Kyle McCord, isnāt Michael Penix, but he was pretty decent this year (66% completion, 24 TD and 6 INT and QBR similar to Penix). In short, Michigan faced a potent passing team and while they gave up a few big plays, they werenāt overwhelmed.
My impression is that the Michigan defense is similar to last years. Its statistics are improved over last year mainly because the Big 10 offenses are worse this year, particularly so for Ohio State, Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan State. And that 2022 Michigan team gave up 53 to TCU in last yearās semi-final game.
What about Washington? The offense has been humming along except for three games - Arizona State, Washington State, and Oregon State. Two of those stinkers were in the last two weeks of the regular season. I canāt see any trends as to why those games were sub-par. So thereās no reason to think one wonāt pop up this week.
Along those lines, Iām concerned about recency bias with Michael Penix Jr. He was outstanding against the Longhorns! Penix had a completion percentage over 70% for the first five games of the year ā¦ and then not again until the national semi-finals. He passed for over 400 yards each of the first three games of the year ā¦ and then not again until last week. Can we really expect him to come close to that level of performance against the Wolverines? If he plays like he did against Washington State and Oregon State, we could have a Michigan-favorable score in the 20s.
Can Michigan pressure Penix? The Michigan sack totals, and particularly those against the teams with better offensive line protection (Minnesota, Rutgers, Ohio State) donāt indicate that will be a factor.
Can Michigan dominate the time of possession and keep Penix off the field? Maybe, but they havenāt really run up huge numbers in TOP this year even when blowing out bad opponents with miserable offenses. 34 minutes to 26 seems about average for Michigan games.
Iām taking Washington plus the 4.5 points. I definitely think they can win outright, and Iām not sure Michigan is well-suited to come back if Washington opens up a two or three score lead. Dragon is probably right about the O/U, and if itās a low-scoring game against a team that is used to playing close contests, 4.5 points seems to be a significant number. Washington is still playing the Rodney Dangerfield (āwe donāt get no respectā) card and maybe rightly so. Bama wasnāt as complete a team as Washington is, but their spread was 1.5 points while Washington is getting 4.5. Michigan wants to win the national championship and Harbaugh wants to stick it to the NCAA, but Washington wants to prove a point. I think they get it done and win the game, but Iāll take the points just in case.
Taking the +4.5 is not a bad idea at all. This is a game that I would not touch if I was doing my weekly picks. Everything you said is true and Vegas hit the line spot on I think.
Iām a bit higher on Michigan than you are, but that certainly has a touch of personal bias, and for whatever reason, Iāve watched a ton of Wolverines football this year and feel like I have a good feel for the team. That said, Washington has been impressive to me every time Iāve seen them take the field and Penix is that damn good.
The crux of my belief in Michigan in this game comes down to the way UofM has handled Ohio State in recent years. They have dominated the Buckeyes, while they featured some of the best wideouts in the game and until this year had some of the best QB play. Itās not apples to apples, to what Washington or Penix brings to the table, but itās talent and ability will not be the complete shock to the system that a lot of B10 teams face when they leave the conference.
Line play is going to be crucial tonight. I donāt rate the Huskies Dline that highly and as I stated I think they can get worn down especially if they get put into some long drives. Itās also a place where if their offense scores too quickly the defense could end up in trouble. I do think the Washington Oline is damn good. Penix does not get hit often and thatās a testament to the work the big fellas do upfront. The Michigan defense is solid but itās not a massive blitz happy or havoc generating group.
Michigan 31 Washington 24
That Dr Pepper transfer portal commercial is hilarious!
Whoever came up with that Fansville marketing campaign is a genius.
This game is giving me NC State vs UVa vibes fun the weekend.
I hate to give espn credit for anything, but their rare UHD feed > FS1ās. FS1ās has commercials. ESPNās, be it basketball or football just shows the crowd and crowd noise. No commercials. No talking head talking. Just sounds like youāre there. Itās fantastic.
LOL. As I look up from typing that I see a Michigan staffer mean mugging the sky cam, holding up a Michigan banner so that the camera canāt see into the huddle. Walking around the huddle as the sky cam circles. Just funny that the team that employed Connor Stalions has a guy hiding their huddle from the sky cam.
Have they figured out how the CFP is going to work next year? I know first round is at campus sites, but will quarterfinals and semifinals be the NY6 games? And what are they doing about the PAC-12 auto bid?
Think youāre right about the locations and NY6 and I assume the Pac 12 doesnāt get an aq since they donāt exist.
The thing I always liked that ESPN did was rhe coaches room. Iād take that over the MacFee sidelide pass any day
Saw that for the first and only time scrolling through a few weeks ago. Couldnāt change the channel fast enough. WWE announcers meet college football. Hard pass.
Yea i tried to watch it last yr and it was awful. I respect Pat for what heās accomplished but Iām over the whole act. Overexposed
Washington punter has perfected the art of the shitty punt that somehow works out. I donāt think itās intentional but heās done it 3 times.
Coaches roundtable was awesome. Just dudes talking plays and seeing the game in a different way.
McAfee is a clown.
Exactly I loved hearing the couches perspectives hearing them break down plays or call them as they happen.
Unique and great idea