Not to be mean, but thatās a take Iād expect from a guy named Arvin
1 Like
Who tf is Arvin?
Will Wade out here throwing shots trying to grow that NC state UNC rival
They donāt have any guards.
But they do have a good group of wings/forward/bigs. The ACC has had a pretty good offseason. Weāll see how it translates to the court.
I feel like some of the middle of the ACC got better (State, UVA, VT, etc), but the top didnāt, maybe even got worse. Duke was a Top 5 team last year and this year feels more like Top 10/15. Clemson similarly should still be good but not as nationally relevant or competitive. Louisville is still good as well but Iām not sure got better, especially with the Khalifa ruling. UNC is still going to underperform relative to their program stature. Wakeās going to crash back to earth too I think, and Iām not sure SMU did enough to take a ānext stepā. As such the leagueās general stature really wonāt bounce back, as at the end of the day you need at least a couple of national powerhouses to carry the banner. And hell, the bottom of the league could still stink, BC is going to BC and there are a few other teams I think could be down there with them (looking at Miami and FSU with their first time HCās, and Stanford had a pretty gnarly talent drain).
3 Likes
I fed some T-Rank data to an LLM, and got the following conclusion:
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is positioned for a significant improvement in overall strength and depth in the upcoming season.
The primary driver of this projected enhancement is not a change among the conferenceās elite, but rather a substantial elevation of the teams in the middle and lower tiers. This ārising tideā phenomenon strengthens the conference from top to bottom, increasing its overall competitiveness and national standing. The number of elite, āTournament-lockā teams is projected to hold steady, but the pool of competitive, ābubble-qualityā teams is expected to expand considerably.
Some analytical points from the comparison:
A comparison of the average ACC teamās statistical profile from the end of last season to the projections for next season reveals a clear and significant upgrade across all key metrics.
| Metric | 2024-25 (Final) | 2025-26 (Projected) | Change | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. National Rank | 89.4 | 66.5 | +22.9 | Significant Overall Improvement |
| Avg. Barthag Rating | 0.688 | 0.794 | +0.106 | Significant Overall Improvement |
| Avg. Adj. Offense (ADJOE) | 111.9 | 112.7 | +0.8 | Modest Offensive Improvement |
| Avg. Adj. Defense (ADJDE) | 102.2 | 98.8 | -3.4 | Strong Defensive Improvement |
The analysis shifts from overall averages to the quantity of high-quality teams the conference can produce. Using a T-Rank of 40 as the general cutoff for a team being a solid NCAA Tournament at-large candidate, the profile of the ACC shows a significant deepening.
Top 40 Rank:
- 2024-25: 4 teams (Duke, Louisville, Clemson, North Carolina)
- 2025-26: 4 teams (Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, N.C. State)
Rank 41-60 Teams:
- 2024-25: 1 team (SMU)
- 2025-26: 4 teams (SMU, Clemson, Virginia, Miami FL)
The conference-level improvement is driven by dramatic turnarounds projected for several teams that finished in the bottom half of the league in 2024-25.
| Team | Rank Change (Improvement) | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| Miami FL | +124 | Projected to move from a bottom-feeder to a tournament bubble team. |
| N.C. State | +78 | The largest projected leap into the NCAA Tournament picture. |
| Boston College | +75 | Massive improvement, moving out of the conference cellar. |
| Virginia Tech | +67 | A significant jump into the top half of the projected standings. |
| Virginia | +45 | Projected to return to the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. |
| Syracuse | +45 | Substantial improvement towards the upper-middle tier. |
| Clemson | -23 | Projected to regress from a tournament lock to a bubble team. |
| Stanford | -25 | Projected to take the largest step backward within the conference. |
I do wonder if the projections likely baking in some regression-to-the-mean for last seasonās bad team is a big part of this projected improvement. But on the other hand, it does seem right to guess that teams like Miami wonāt be so horrendously bad again based on roster, even with a rookie coach.
3 Likes
Flow chart for Enfield:
Does he have both Mobley brothers?
If yes, he will take the next step
If no, he will finish between 45 and 55 in Kenpom and has a 50-50 shot at the tourney, where he will lose in the first weekend.
5 Likes
I think if UNC is top 20 good and NC State is fringe top 30 or so and ābuzzyā, then the media will probably be more friendly toward the ACC, even if Duke is only merely top 10, and not natty caliber.
The dregs could be slightly improved seems about right. Like Miami just gave up. And BC canāt be worse. Can they?
3 Likes
I think depth is just as important if not more so than the quality at the top. Metrics across the league should be better because of a stronger tier 2 & 3. Duke will be fine. They wonāt be as good as last year but theyāll still be a good team. UNC will have issues as you mentioned. But I think thereās a path to those 2, plus UVA, State, SMU, Clemson, VT, ND, and maybe even Miami being potential NCAAT teams. Wake could be as well but not falling for it with Forbes. Iād put the o/u on bids at 6.5 today.
2 Likes
I think as of right now, Iād tier it as:
Tier 1: Aspiring for a deep NCAAT run
Duke: Enough talent to stay at the top, but not a guaranteed natty contender.
Louisville: Frontcourt question marks with Pryor coming off an ACL and Khalifa working on an appeal; otherwise they look great.
Tier 2: Should make the NCAAT
NC State: On pure roster alone, this might be a Tier 1 team, but Iām discounting some for lack of continuity.
UNC: Theyāre talented enough that this should be their floor, and hey, maybe the alternating good Hubert/bad Hubert pattern works out this year.
UVA: I think Iām only being a little bit of a homer here
Tier 3: The bubbly middle
Clemson: Frontcourt rotation is great, but they uhā¦forgot to get guys who can pass the ball?
Notre Dame: This is the year continuity will pay off for them, right?
Miami: Do they really just have 10 players and 5 of them freshmen? Feels like they need more players? The guys with college experience are good.
Pitt: I dunno, I look at their roster and feel nothing. But I think theyāll be OK
SMU: You know this looks alright, maybe they should be a Tier 2 team.
Syracuse: I like their guard rotation, frontcourt is reliant on Donnie Freeman being good.
Tier 4: Expect to miss the NCAAT, but not be ābadā
Cal: Itās gonna be weird to see Dai Dai and Zay with each other, but in different colors. Madsen continues to turn over this roster year-to-year in a way that doesnāt gain much ground.
Florida St: I donāt see much of interest in that roster. This is a rebuilding year.
VT: If youāre a huge Neoklis optimist, bump them into Tier 3. If you are like me and want to be mean to VT, youāll have them here.
Wake: Maybe Biliew lives up to 5-star billing once healthy and Colvin looks better in a different roleā¦I dunno.
Tier 5: āBadā and at risk of missing the ACCT
Boston College: Props to Donald Hand Jr for his loyalty. At least this roster has more power conference guys than last yearās did.
Georgia Tech: [Insert Fresh Prince meme of the cleared out house, with Baye Ndongo in the middle]
Stanford: Literally 0 transfers in, best players are gone, freshman class is mehā¦does Stanford not know they are a rich school?
5 Likes
Depth - yes yesā¦ key is for the entire conference to dominate non P5 teams in the non con and get a few unexpected power wins tooā¦.
Just a stinky system that your conference strength is baked by Jan 1 every year.
At least now Acc teams have a chance to play out of conference twice after New Years and get a good win or 2.
Thatās probably also the reason why I would hesitate to play Clemson out of conference later in the year because if the conference is terrible, itāll just drag us down in the net.
But it might be hard to find another out of Conf game as good as that one has a chance to be at least
1 Like
Iām not on board for Louisville being significantly better than last year, unless that Frosh Brown Jr is a stud.
I do like Pryor and Khalifa but Khalifa is a big question mark.
Conwell and has never impressed me and he and iMac seem too samey samey. So youāre depending a lot on a frosh for most of the creation (again, unless Khalifa is eligible). Woolley seems like a risky up-transfer. And whereās the true big / rim protector? Just not sure their pieces fit like they did last year. They objectively have more talent (esp if you factor experience), but I prefer our fit.
1 Like
Yeah, I think thereās good case for Louisville being Tier 2. Will note that Wooley was good in his 9 Top-100 games last season, so thereās reason to be bullish, but agree on shot creation concerns. Brown Jr was #10 in Givonyās next-year mock, so maybe heāll be a stud. They also get Kobe Rodgers coming off a redshirt season, so theyāve got some depth. They need Fru to be really good for sure.
1 Like
Ugh, forgot about Fru. Torvik is like 20% less helpful this year with international guys and various up-in-the-air statuses
2 Likes
20% seems low when he literally isnāt even contemplating the international guys in his data. Iām not sure how you can put stock in predictive analytics that are currently ignoring the existence of our starting frontcourt.
1 Like
Iāve got most rosters built in my tracker, if thereās anything you want to check in on. Very few TBDās left at this pointā¦ De Ridder for us, Khalifa for Louisville, not sure if thereās anyone else meaningful floating out there. GT eventually got Reeves back but not OāBrien. Watkins from FSU stayed in the Draft.
Of course a challenge with the internationals is knowing how to rate them.
2 Likes
20% less helpful off a āsorta mehā baseline. 
Torvik is useful for a very general ballpark but was most useful just as a central source for rosters this time of year.
@StLouHoo Do you have those linked somewhere? Or just aggregated here?
The burner had some cool visual roster thing, but Iāve let that subscription lapse for the summer
1 Like
Iāve got a google spreadsheet, itās mixed in with a lot of other stuff and not very clean right now so Iād need to put in some work to make it public-ready. Usually I do that cleanup just-in-time when I share it, whether posting it here, working with Cuts to publish it there, etc. Itās an exercise I do every offseason.
2 Likes