A little bit better than Ndongo was for them last year in BPR (setting aside long term potential). We happened to make Ndongo look really good against us.
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Flagg wins at 36%. RJ at 15%.
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With all the roster breakdowns done, I went ahead and did a post-summer / pre-fall Power Rankings, though admittedly itās a mess across the top half and middle (really, #'s 2-12 or so), and at this point could go a ton of different ways:
#1 - Duke - The Devils bring back two proven blue chip guards in Tyrese Proctor (30.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg) and Caleb Forster (25.4 mpg, 7.7 ppg) to provide stability to an otherwise wholly rebuilt roster. Jumbo wing Cooper Flagg is the most pro-ready college freshman in years. A trio of proven mid/high-major transfers (Tulaneās Sion James, Purdueās Mason Gillis, and Syracuseās Maliq Brown, all Top 60 transfers in EvanMiya.comās rankings) provide the veteran depth to complement additional 5-star prospects like wings Kon Knueppel (#18 national recruit per 247) and Isaiah Evans (#13), plus bigs Khaman Maluach (#4) and Patrick Ngongba (#21). Jon Scheyer has a āno excusesā lineup as Duke enters the season the favorite both for an ACC title and a Final Four run.
#2 - North Carolina - Returning the starting backcourt from the ACCās #1 seed, senior RJ Davis (21.2 ppg, 3.5 apg, all-ACC 1st Team) and sophomore Elliot Cadeau (7.3 ppg, 4.1 apg) is an enviable starting spot for Hubert Davis, though Cadeau has yet to live up to his #12 ranking in the '23 class. Two one-and-done prospects in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell will dominate wing minutes, giving UNC big scoring upside but half-court defensive risks. A transfer portal rebuild of the front court (Belmontās Cade Tyson, Vanderbiltās Ven-Allen Lubin, GTās Tyzhuan Claude) offers offensive versatility but lacks size. Still a top ACC team but a little more susceptible to upsets this year.
#3 - Louisville - There arguably isnāt a more intriguing team going into the season than the Cards, the ultimate ānew lookā team with a completely turned over rostrer and coaching staff. Pat Kelsey was dominant in previous stops in the Big South and CAA, and his depth chart will boast 9 Top 250 transfers, seven of whom are 4th or 5th years. Itās a fascinating experiment that makes Louisville near-impossible to predict. But the talent is absolutely there to make a run for the top of the conference, the Cards got the added benefit from a summer foreign tour to build additional chemistry, and Kelsey is arguably one of the brightest coaching prospects in the game having won combined conference regular season + tournament titles in five of the last eight seasons at Charleston and Winthrop. Itās not crazy to think they could make a run in the ACC this season as well.
#4 - Wake Forest - The Deacons have the enviable benefit of returning 1st Team all-ACC guard Hunter Sallis (18 ppg, 41% 3P%) along with three other rotation players from last yearās 21-14 (11-9) squad. Louisvilleās Ty-Laur Johnson (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg) becomes the new PG and will need to improve on his consistency, as additional former 4-stars Davin Cosby and Juke Harris will work in as reserves behind senior Cam Hildreth (13.8 ppg, 35% 3P%). The frontcourt boasts senior Efton Reid (9.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg) who will be supported by two transfers: App State workhorse senior TreāVon Spillers and Iowa State former 5-star Omaha Biliew. With Reid and Sallis, coach Steve Forbes has proven his ability to get the most out of blue chip transfers, so if he can work similar magic with the likes of Johnson, Cosby, and/or Biliew, this could absolutely be the season Wake breaks free from the Bubble and pushes for the leagueās top tier.
#5 - Clemson - The Tigers get to pair incumbent 5th year guard Chase Hunter (12.9 ppg, 3.2 apg) with 5th year BC transfer guard Jaeden Zachery (11.3 ppg, 4.2 apg, 41% 3P%) for one of the leagueās best backcourts. Double-double machine Ian Schieffelin (10.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, Honorable Mention All-ACC) is back, while Cincinnati transfer center Viktor Lakhin (9.2 ppg, 6 rpg) steps in for PJ Hall, with Chauncey Wiggins and Illinois State transfer Myles Foster giving good front court depth. Guard/wing depth is an issue and could cap Clemsonās upside, so some step back from last year is possible, though thereās enough proven talent that another NCAAT berth should be likely.
#6 - SMU - Andy Enfield quickly settled into a āconsistently good but rarely greatā comfort zone at USC, and was hired to quickly raise SMUās profile. The Mustangs boast one of the leagueās better-looking guard tandems with returning Chuck Harris (13.4 ppg, 3.4 apg, 41% 3P%) and Wake transfer Kevin Miller (15.6 ppg, 3.5 apg, 37% 3P%). The front court boasts A-10 1st Team stretch forward Matt Cross (15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg at UMass) and former 5-star recruit Yohan Traore (14.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg at UCSB). Depth needs to shake out, but with 10 players who averaged double-digit minutes per game last year in addition to three rookies, Enfield has a ton of options to work with. Bottom line is that thereās enough here for SMU to make an impact in their first year in the ACC, especially at home where visitors have a long haul to get to Dallas, and an NCAAT appearance is a realistic target.
#7 - NC State - Kevin Keatts has made a strong attempt to reload after losing the majority of his starting rotation from last yearās Final Four run. Returning senior guards Michael OāConnell (5.7 ppg, 3.2 apg, 38% 3P%) and Jayden Taylor (11.2 ppg, 36% 3P%) will serve as team leaders, while a trio of proven high-major transfers likely round out the starting lineup up front in Louisville wing Michael James (12.6 ppg, 5 rpg), Georgetown forward Dontrez Styles (12.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg), and Louisville big Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (12.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg). Keatts has talent to play with off the bench as well with underclassman 4-stars at both guard and forward spots, plus senior big man Ben Middlebrooks in the post. On paper thereās a lot to like, but remember Keatts went only 9-11 in the ACC last season even with Final Four level talent; heās historically a very .500 kind of coach in the league, finishing between 9-11 and 12-8 in six of his seven seasons at State. Oh, and remember, the prior two seasons have seen ACC clubs follow up Final Four appearances with missing the Dance entirely (UNC and Miami), so State canāt take anything for granted.
#8 - Virginia - Virginia hasnāt finished worse than 6th in the ACC in over a decade, but Tony Bennettās teams tend to underperform (relative to peak) when facing a lot of year-over-year turnover. With Isaac McKneely (12.3 ppg, 45% 3P%) the only locked in returning starter, the Hoos will be leaning hard on veteran role player transfers like SDSUās Elijah Saunders (6.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and FSUās Jalen Warley (7.5 ppg, 2.8 apg), plus betting on rising 4-star sophomores Dai Dai Ames (#83 in 247ās 2023 ranking), TJ Power (#17), and Blake Buchanan (#82). Four of the Hoo transfers did rank in EvanMiyaās Top 250, but heavy turnover rosters like this under Bennett typically end up in Bubble territory. With the middle of the league more competitive this year, a similar result is likely.
#9 - Syracuse - Only two rotation players return from last yearās 20-win Orange team, perimeter players JJ Starling (13.3 ppg) and Chris Bell (12 ppg, 42% 3P%), so 2nd year coach Adrian Autry will need to get a lot out of transfers and rookies to bounce back. Hofstra transfer Jaquan Carlos (10.4 ppg, 6.3 apg) is the likely 3rd starter and floor general, while young former-4-star talents Kyle Cuffe Jr (RS Soph), Elijah Moore (Freshman), and Chance Westry (RS Soph) compete for reserve roles, so thereās no shortage of talent to work with. Potential one-and-done Donnie Freeman slots into the 4-spot with Colorado center Eddie Lampkin (10.6 ppg, 7 rpg) at center, though front court depth is worrisome to the point we may see 5-out lineups. The Orange have enough firepower to stay competitive, but have just enough questions that they stay stuck in the pack for another year.
#10 - Georgia Tech - The Jackets have a respectable floor with the returning core of PG Naithan George (9.8 ppg, 4.7 apg), wing Kowacie Reeves (9.8 ppg, 38% 3P%), and big Baye Ndongo (12.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg), and have quality reinforcements coming with shooting specialist Lancy Terry back after a missed injury year plus Oklahoma transfer guard Javian McCollum. Depth, especially in the front court behind Ndongo and Colorado transfer Luke OāBrien, is a big question mark with four freshmen in the mix for roles. But the pieces are there for the Jackets to push for an NCAAT invite in coach Stoudamireās second season.
#11 - Notre Dame - The Irish looked ahead of schedule in Micah Shrewsberryās first season as the head coach. PG Markus Burton (17.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) was a freshman sensation earning Honorable Mention All-ACC honors, and fellow rookie SG Braeden Shrewsberry (10.2 ppg, 37% 3P%) surprised as well. 5th year Princeton guard Matt Allocco (12.7 ppg, 43% 3P%) strengthens a deep backcourt rotation that also has three incumbent reserves and two 4-star freshmen inbound. The big rotation is somewhat of a concern as inbound transfers feature a big step up in competition, though returning juniors Tae Davis and Kebba Njie have a solid floor. The Irish have the kind of roster stability, culture, and forward momentum that weāve seen from the likes of Mike Youngās Hokies in recent years that could have the Irish sniffing around .500 in league play and pushing for an NIT bid, though admittedly they wonāt have the benefit of sneaking up on teams like last year.
#12 - Pittsburgh - The Panthers have finished T-3rd and 4th in the ACC the last two seasons, and get to lean on four returning rotation players as they look to keep momentum. Returning guards Jaland Lowe (9.6 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Ishmael Leggett (12.3 ppg, 34% 3P%) will be able to shoulder more load in Bub Carringtonās absence, with Houston transfer Damien Dunn taking on a glue-guy role on the wing. FSU forward Cam Corhen (9.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) will try to fill Blake Hinsonās giant shoes, while Capel needs the Diaz-Graham twins to turn a corner into starter-quality contributors. This roster feels a couple pieces short barring breakouts from a five-man freshman class, and probably slides back into the middle of the pack this season.
#13 - Miami - Itās hard to peg Miami when, with essentially the same roster over the last two years, they followed up a Final Four run in 2023 with a 14th place ACC finish last season. Only Nigel Pack (13.3 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Matthew Cleveland (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) are back from last yearās rotation but a few top transfers arrive to reinforce both the perimeter (Samfordās AJ Staton-McCray, Stetsonās Jalen Blackmon) and front court (ECUās Brandon Johnson, VTās Lynn Kidd). All in all Jim Larranaga will have 7 seniors in the rotation plus one-and-done prospect Jalil Bethea, so this very much feels like an āall-inā play from the coach. But heās had only two winning ACC records in the last six seasons, so itās hard to bet on them to put all the pieces together, especially on the defensive end. My guess is this season ultimately shows only a modest improvement on last seasonās record.
#14 - California - In his second year at Cal, Mark Madsen has brought in a good-on-paper haul of transfers to remake his roster. The headlines are at the 3-through-5-spots, with Air Force wing Rytis Petraitis, Stanford forward Andrej Stojakovic, and Michigan State big Mady Sissoko all Top 200 transfers in EvanMiyaās rankings. The guard pickups were lower profile leave some depth questions, though, so Madsen may struggle to pull this team together overnight. Expect them to be a quiet presence hovering around the leagueās middle tier, probably struggling on east coast trips but overperforming at home against jet lagged visitors.
#15 - Virginia Tech - The Hokies managed a .500 league finish last year but saw an exodus of talent to better paying NIL opportunities, and return only role players from last yearās team, the closest thing to a headliner being 5th year big man Mylyjael Poteat (14.5 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg). Their front court looks okay with additions of Charlestonās Ben Burnham (11.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg), VCUās Toibu Lawal (7.7 ppg, 6 rpg, 43% 3P%), and 4-star freshman Ryan Jones. But the guard rotation is questionable at best aside from high-usage/low-efficiency Temple transfer Hysier Miller, and this feels like a season where a lot of the league has simply passed the low-budget Hokies by.
#16 - Stanford - Cardinal made one of the best coaching hires of the offseason in reigning Pac-12 COY Kyle Smith from Washington State, but heās facing a tough first year with the roster almost entirely rebuilt. Stanford does have a top notch center to build around in returning senior Maxime Raynaud (15.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg last year in the Pac-12), but aside from Harvard big man Chisom Okpara (16.5 ppg in Ivy League), the rest of Smithās depth chart is former role players and 3-star rookies. With only two seniors on the roster, have to peg this as a āmaybe next yearā team.
#17 - Florida State - The Leonard Hamilton backslide continues after the mass exodus of 10 players (3 graduations, seven transfers), backfilled with a fairly underwhelming transfer haul and rookie class. Returning wing forward Jamir Watkins (15.6 ppg, 6 rpg, Honorable Mention All-ACC) is an all-ACC talent, but after him the best looking options are Top 100 rookie PG Daquan Davis, rising junior returning wing Chandler Jackson (15.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg off the bench last year), and #1 JuCo prospect Malique Ewin (247ās #118 recruit in the 2022 class). Otherwise its low-major transfers and unheralded 3-star rookies (many raw internationals) that could land the Noles in the ACCās basement, Watkinsā presence the only reason I think theyāll avoid last place entirely, and bring an ignominious end to Hamiltonās long, impressive career.
#18 - Boston College - The Eagles got rewarded for their best season in years (20 wins, NIT) with five rotation players chasing NIL bags at ābetterā programs. RS Sophomore Donald Hand (15 mpg, 5 ppg) is the most veteran returner, and coach Earl Grant could mostly only round out his roster with low/mid-major callups (UMBC, SE Louisiana, St Bonaventure) and 3-star recruits. Due to a total lack of established post depth, BC will likely have to play drastically undersized with a 4-guard base lineup. A big step back is ultimately expected for BC this year.
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Love the thoughts! I think right now Iām at the following tiers:
Tier 1: Conference title favorites
Duke
UNC
Tier 2: Conference title darkhorses, favorites for a top-4 ACC seed
Wake
Tier 3: Potential Top-4 ACC seed if things break right
Louisville
Miami
Pitt
Clemson
UVA
SMU
NC State
Notre Dame
Tier 4: .500 in conference would be a good season
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Stanford
Cal
VT
Tier 5: Pit of Despair
FSU
Boston College
Edit: Thought more about it, and moved Miami and Louisville down a tier. Tier 3 is stupid-big, but I think itās actually a good reflection of the uncertainty thatās there with many teams in the conference.
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Thanks! Iāll reserve judgment on the Hoos. Because Iām a coward
Iād be a bit lower on Lville and Clemson. Double bye for Kelsey after the last several seasons, and theyāll build him a statue. If he gets through the offseason with no extortion issues, theyāll cover it in gold.
Iād peg Miami and Pitt as upper half, and maybe maybe maybe competing on the bubble.
I like NC State as a wildcard double bye team, but I also wouldnāt be surprised if they stink. Itās all possibleā¦
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Is this the most Maine thing possible? Also smart of him to lock up the bag before Warley/Saunders put him in jail and kill his stock.
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New Balance has manufacturing facilities in Maine and I think recently committed to a big expansion of their Skowhegan factory. So itās pretty on point, ha.
I know Iām going to hate him on the court, but if he decides to just be a one man Maine economy hype machineā¦. well Iām going to have mixed feelings.
Now Iām just going to wait for the Wild Blueberry Commission of Maine and the Maine Lobstermanās Association to announce their NIL deals.
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Flagg shouldāve gone to UConn and just been normal hateable.
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Or come to UVa and redshirt and learn from the other Duke guy we got
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Quickly becoming a very annoying fanbase too, I suppose with good reason. My hater take on UConn is that Hurley has only put together elite defenses when having Donovan Clingan on the team, so letās see how he does without him.
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Iāve got my āHurley was only good because it turns out Clingan was such a good talentā take holstered if Clingan has a good rookie year and UConn is borderline top 25
I guess there was some non-Clingan time last year to analyze
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Oh I thought you were goonna say Hurley was only good because of Laettner Grant and refs
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Hurley was only good because of PJ Carlesimo.
Not gonna lie, donāt remember many Seton Hall players past Dehere and Jerry Walker. I guess I remember Luther Wright, but that guy is pretty memorable
Edit - man, Iām getting old. Totally spaced that Hurley overlapped with Walker and Dehere. Also, Arturas Karnishovas belongs in Remembering Some Guys
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Iām so sad. I met the nicest guy whose kid is in my kidās daycare class - heās a diehard UConn fan.
Never meet your enemies.
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UCONN fans are horrible, and Iāve learned over the years that they seem to embrace that reputation. I guess in every group there are exceptions.
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LRA Appreciation Post:
āRock Bottomā has several layers and I have been there and read all of the posts this summer on LRA because itās hard to keep up at times. I think some of our most creative musings come from the slow times when not much is happening and I appreciate this group.
Havenāt posted much lately, but I have realized that when the slow times happen in the sports calendar, this group brings some itās best stuff. Kept me going through the dark times when I was in Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia for youth sports.@BDragon kept me motivated in Georgia. And my main man @DFresh11 always has digital ābeersā available when you need one.
Thank god Football is here. And basketball soon behind that season. Sometimes you need a community to keep your sports sanity and lose it again in the same 30 mins. Appreciate you guys.
About to get fun again! Go Hoos
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. Summer league had some good games, olympics were fun as always, been watching WNBA alot more and enjoying itā¦ but definitely more than ready for CBB to start!
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I just googled āwhen does NCAA basketball practice start.ā Woo-hoo! (Itās like 4 weeks or so)
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