🏀 ACC Men's Basketball - Week 17: 24 February - 2 March 2025

[jazznutUVA]

Monday, February 24, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	North Carolina	Florida State	7:00 P.M. ET	Tallahassee, Fla. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Georgia Tech	Pitt	7:00 P.M. ET	Pittsburgh, PA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN Stats Radio: 93.7 The Fan
	Duke	Miami	7:00 P.M. ET	Coral Gables, FL (Conf.)	TV: ESPN
	Louisville	Virginia Tech	9:00 P.M. ET	Blacksburg, Va. (Conf.)	TV: ACC Network

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Notre Dame	Clemson	7:00 P.M. ET	Clemson, SC (Conf.)	TV: ACCN
	NC State	Syracuse	7:00 P.M. ET	Syracuse, NY (Conf.)	Radio: TK99/105
	Boston College	Stanford	9:00 P.M. ET	Stanford, CA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN Radio: WEEI 850 AM
	Virginia	Wake Forest	9:00 P.M. ET	Winston-Salem, NC (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2/U Stats
	SMU	California	11:00 P.M. ET	Berkeley, CA (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2/U

Saturday, March 1, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Syracuse	Virginia Tech	12:00 P.M.	Blacksburg, VA (Conf.)	TV: The CW Radio: TK99/105
	Miami	North Carolina	12:00 P.M. ET	Chapel Hill, NC (Conf.)	TV: ESPN or ESPN2 Stats
	Clemson	Virginia	12:00 P.M. ET	Charlottesville, VA (Conf.)	TV: ESPN/2
	NC State	Georgia Tech	3:00 P.M. ET	Atlanta, GA (Conf.)	TV: ACC Network
	SMU	Stanford	5:00 P.M. ET	Stanford, CA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN
	Notre Dame	Wake Forest	5:30 P.M. ET	Winston-Salem, NC (Conf.)	TV: The CW Stats
	Pitt	Louisville	6:00 P.M. ET	Louisville, Ky. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2 Stats Radio: 93.7 The Fan
	Florida State	Duke	7:00 P.M. ET	Durham, NC (Conf.)	TV: ACCN Stats
	Boston College	California	10:00 P.M. ET	Berkeley, CA (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2/U Radio: WEEI 850 AM

[rushdacote]

ACCT Bubble Watch

Continuing the discussion from ACC Men's Basketball - Week 16:17-23 February 2025:

@dave92

I hate that this is still on the table. And if we lose the next two (as we’re favored to do), while NCSU wins 1 or 2, things will get stressful.

2 more wins and we clinch. 1 more win and NCSU (or BC) would have to go 4-0 to pass us.

@haney

TLDR - if we win one more ACC game, we will probably go to the ACCT. There are scenarios where we go 1-3 and miss, but Cal and Cuse and NC St would collectively have to pull a lot of upsets in those scenarios.

Sorry, @dave92 just realized you pretty much said this already

And one more thing - if we go 1-3, we are actually better off losing both of the next two and winning one of FSU / Cuse, with whom we will have tiebreakers.

I think this is too pessimistic. We are 12% to lose out according to Torvik. We are 5% to miss the ACCT according to Playoff Status.

1 more win is in for sure. And 0-4 is in over half the time. A lot of the teams behind us have games against each other, so they can’t both win those games. Really the only way we don’t get in is by ending in a tie for Xth-16th place at 6-14 in a configuration where we are last place in the multi-team tiebreaker.

[haney]

1 win isn’t a sure thing, but it’s close enough (which my “probably” probably didn’t properly convey)

[AdventiveQuasar]

https://x.com/contextfreecbb/status/1894212945401536873?s=46&t=wAzMZR-0PRGT1LpN6U5x0g

[AdventiveQuasar]

A new entry in the list of answers to “what exactly does a GM do in college sports and who should be hired for that role?”

https://x.com/mattnorlander/status/1894531773310067141?s=46&t=wAzMZR-0PRGT1LpN6U5x0g

The framing being “Hubert Davis is hiring a GM” is interesting too.

[rushdacote]

ACCT Seed Watch

If season ended today…

13 seed vs 12 ND then 5 SMU then 4 Wake Forest.

If you round expected win totals…

We’re in a five-way tie for 9-13th place at 8-12.

The first tie breaker is record within the group.

VT 3-2
FSU 2-1 (still play UVA)
ND 2-2
UVA 2-2 (still play FSU) (lose 11-12 tiebreaker because of H2H loss to ND)
Pitt 1-3

We’d be the 12 vs 13 Pitt then 5 Wake then 4 SMU.

Don’t get too attached to the match-ups. Playoff Status has our odds between 11% and 14% for every seed between 9th (last Tuesday bye) and 15th, so it’s still completely up in the air.

We have a 5% chance of missing the little dance.

In case of two-team ties:

Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame

UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
Boston College
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, which is ours against Georgia Tech [8-9])

TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home 3/4)
Syracuse (away 3/8)

[haney]

If NC St loses, are we more or less guaranteed for the ACC-T?

[haney]

Damn, Proctor hurt his knee? That stinks

This has been another “reading the news with Haney”

[UVApride7]

I didn’t realize NCST’s mid-season slump included a nine game losing streak. Now getting blown out by Syracuse.

Man they really fucked up by going to the final four.

[rushdacote]

@haney

If NC St loses, are we more or less guaranteed for the ACC-T

Probably 98-99%

[UVApride7]

Markus Burton has 30/4/5 tonight for ND.

ND is losing by 15.

Somebody rescue this poor man.

[rushdacote]

ACCT Seed Watch

If season ended today…

We’re in a four way tie for 9th-12th. First tiebreak is record in the group:

UVA 2-1 (still plays Florida State)
Virginia Tech 2-2
Florida State 1-1 (still plays UVA)
Pitt 1-2

We’d get the 9th seed, which means a 1st round bye. We’d open in the second round versus 8 Georgia Tech, then a quarterfinal with 1 Duke.

If you round expected win totals…

We’re in a four-way tie for 10-13th place at 8-12.

Record within the group:

VT 3-1
FSU 1-1 (still play UVA)
ND 1-2
UVA 1-2 (still play FSU) (lose 12-13 tiebreaker because of H2H loss to ND)

We’d be the 13 vs 12 ND then 5 UNC then 4 SMU.

There has been a big shakeup in our odds for each seed on Playoff Status, which were previously nearly uniformly distributed between 9th and 15th. We now have a 38% chance of being in the 8-9 game (that’s probably the scenario where we close 2-1 against Clemson, FSU, and Syracuse.) We have an 8-14% chance of each seed between 10 and 14.

ACC Basketball Standings

In case of two-team ties:

Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame

UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
Boston College
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, which is ours against Wake Forest [11-6])

TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home Wed)
Syracuse (away 3/8)

[4547Lambeth]

Man, our fortunes changed so much with the upset wins over Pitt and Wake and the expected wins over VT and GT. Going from possibly missing the tournament altogether to possibly getting a bye.

I don’t really want the 9 seed though. Well, I guess we’d only get it if we go 2-1 to finish 16-15, so we’re still 500 with a 1 and out and better if we got 1-1.

If we go 1-2 to finish 15-16, we’d need to go 2-1 in the ACCT as something like the 12 seed. So have to beat the 13 and then the 5 then lose to Duke anyway just to get to 500.

The 10 seed might be a sweet spot, play the 15, then the 7, then the 2. Or the 11 plays the 14, then 6, then 3. Either seems like a decent opportunity to possibly make an NC State style run.

[rushdacote]

ACCT Seed Watch at 5:45 PM, probably last one until Wednesday

If season ended now…

We’d be the 12 and play 13 Notre Dame, 5 UNC, 4 FSU

If you round expected win totals…

We’re in a four-way tie for 10-13th place at 8-12.

Record within the group:

VT 3-1
FSU 1-1 (still play UVA)
ND 1-2
UVA 1-2 (still play FSU) (lose 12-13 tiebreaker because of H2H loss to ND)

We’d be the 13 vs 12 ND then 5 Wake Forest then 4 SMU.

If we go 2-0

We’re very, very likely in the 8-9 game versus Georgia Tech, then 1 Duke.

If we go 0-2

I’m guessing 14th or 15th seed with several possible opponents, seeded 10th or 11th.

In case of two-team ties:

Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame

UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
Boston College
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, which is ours against Wake Forest [11-6])

TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home Wed)
Syracuse (away Sat)