🏀 ACC Men's Basketball - Week 17: 24 February - 2 March 2025

[rushdacote]

ACCT Bubble Watch

Continuing the discussion from ACC Men's Basketball - Week 16:17-23 February 2025:

@dave92

I hate that this is still on the table. And if we lose the next two (as we’re favored to do), while NCSU wins 1 or 2, things will get stressful.

2 more wins and we clinch. 1 more win and NCSU (or BC) would have to go 4-0 to pass us.

@haney

TLDR - if we win one more ACC game, we will probably go to the ACCT. There are scenarios where we go 1-3 and miss, but Cal and Cuse and NC St would collectively have to pull a lot of upsets in those scenarios.

Sorry, @dave92 just realized you pretty much said this already

And one more thing - if we go 1-3, we are actually better off losing both of the next two and winning one of FSU / Cuse, with whom we will have tiebreakers.

I think this is too pessimistic. We are 12% to lose out according to Torvik. We are 5% to miss the ACCT according to Playoff Status.

1 more win is in for sure. And 0-4 is in over half the time. A lot of the teams behind us have games against each other, so they can’t both win those games. Really the only way we don’t get in is by ending in a tie for Xth-16th place at 6-14 in a configuration where we are last place in the multi-team tiebreaker.