🏀 ACC Men's Basketball - Week 18: 3-9 March 2025

[jazznutUVA]

Monday, March 3, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Wake Forest	Duke	7:00 P.M. ET	Durham, NC (Conf.)	TV: ESPN Stats

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Miami	Georgia Tech	7:00 P.M. ET	Atlanta, GA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN
	North Carolina	Virginia Tech	7:00 P.M. ET	Blacksburg, Va. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
	Syracuse	SMU	9:00 P.M.	Dallas, TX (Conf.)	TV: ESPN/2/U Radio: TK99/105
	Florida State	Virginia	9:00 P.M. ET	Charlottesville, VA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Pitt	NC State	7:00 P.M. ET	Raleigh, NC (Conf.)	TV: ACC Network Stats Radio: 93.7 The Fan
	Clemson	Boston College	7:00 P.M. ET	Chestnut Hill, Mass. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2/U Stats Radio: WEEI 850 AM
	California	Louisville	9:00 P.M. ET	Louisville, Ky. (Conf.)	TV: ACC Network Stats
	Stanford	Notre Dame	9:00 P.M. ET	South Bend, Ind. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN2/U

Saturday, March 8, 2025

	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
	Georgia Tech	Wake Forest	12:00 P.M. ET	Winston-Salem, NC (Conf.)	TV: The CW Stats
	Stanford	Louisville	2:00 P.M. ET	Louisville, Ky. (Conf.)	TV: ESPNU Stats
	NC State	Miami	2:15 P.M. ET	Coral Gables, FL (Conf.)	TV: The CW
	SMU	Florida State	4:00 P.M. ET	Tallahassee, FL (Conf.)	TV: ESPNU
	Virginia Tech	Clemson	6:00 P.M. ET	Clemson, SC (Conf.)	TV: ESPNU
	Boston College	Pitt	6:00 P.M. ET	Pittsburgh, PA (Conf.)	TV: ACCN Stats Radio: 93.7 The Fan
	Duke	North Carolina	6:30 P.M. ET	Chapel Hill, NC (Conf.)	TV: ESPN Stats
	California	Notre Dame	8:00 P.M. ET	South Bend, IN (Conf.)	TV: ESPNU
	Virginia	Syracuse	8:00 P.M. ET	Syracuse, NY (Conf.)	TV: ACC Network Radio: TK99/105

[HoozGotNext]

https://x.com/MichalowskiCBB/status/1896597530580013076

This is the first year I believe it’s actually true. The past few the league has had some poor early season results or a couple teams that dragged down the average but it wasn’t surprising at all when the league did well in the NCAAT, because the teams were good. This year, not so much.

[haney]

Wake and UNC both need a win v Duke to have an at-large shot. So we are probably looking at a 3-bid ACC, out of 18 teams

[DavetheWave]

Duke lose one and Clemson wins regular season Acc for the first time since???

[Richan34]

1990

[dave92]

Dale Davis, Elden Campbell. That was a one-year great Clemson team, in the midst of a lot of meh Clemson teams, as I recall it.

[HoozGotNext]

Will the ACC get a 4th team in the NCAA Tournament?

• no
• yes, UNC
• yes, Wake
• yes, SMU
• yes, other

[uva123]

Pretty sure UNC’s AD is the head of the selection committee. And they just extended Hubert. They’ll be in

[UVAdrian]

I know a lot of people here don’t like Bilas, but ESPN sending its number 1 team to the SEC over the ACC is another kick in the nuts for the conference.

Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas to call SEC Tournament after years as ACC Tournament...

[htraylor]

I didn’t know Duke was playing in the SEC tournament?

[DavetheWave]

Makes sense - I mean who wants to watch a bunch of mid major teams after the top 3?

[rushdacote]

ACCT Seed Watch

If season ended now…

We’d be the 9 and play 8 Georgia Tech, then 1 Duke

We are tied for 9th and 10th with VT. We split the season series, and the next tie break is who has the best ACC win. That’s us versus Wake. They have the opportunity to steal that tie break by winning at Clemson on Saturday (Torvik has them +18.)

If we win at Syracuse (45%)

We’re very, very likely in the 8-9 game versus Georgia Tech, then 1 Duke.

The only way we win and don’t get in the 8-9 game is if:

• Pitt loses at least one of its last two (56%) AND
• VT beats Clemson (6%)

The odds of 1+ Pitt loss and VT upsetting Clemson are 3%.

In this scenario, we’d lose the 9-10 tie break to Virginia Tech because it would have a better conference win than us (Clemson finishes above Wake in the conference standings).

BTW, Georgia Tech is not locked into the 8 seed. If it wins @Wake (30%) AND Stanford loses @ND (57%) and @Louisville (88%), we would play Stanford in the 8/9 game. The odds of all three games going those ways is 15%.

If we lose at Syracuse (55%)

We’re probably still the 9 or 10 seed. We get the 9 seed if we are in a tie at 8-12 with any combination of Virginia Tech, Pitt, and FSU. Ties that include the less likely teams to get to 8-12 (Cal & Notre Dame) can knock us down to the 11, the 12, or in an extremely unlikely event, the 13.

We have the last regular season game of the ACC season, so we will know as soon as VT/Clem and BC/Pitt end (about the same time as we tip), what our final seeding scenarios are.

In case of two-team ties:

Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame

UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
Boston College
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Florida State
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, which is ours against Wake Forest [11-6])

TBD Tiebreak
Syracuse (away Sat)

[haney]

I think I’d prefer the 10 seed and evening games. I don’t think I’ll be missing work to watch us play GT again or get brained by Duke again.

9 seed would mean a winning record though, which would be nice

[HoozGotNext]

Cake day @UVAdrian!!

And thanks for the good news, that we won’t need to listen to Bilas next week.

[JBHoo]

I’d rather get the 9 seed. Mostly because I don’t expect us to beat any of the top 3 seeds so let’s atleast get the bye and maybe not be as tired by the time we get to duke.

Also I have 0 anticipation of them pulling the upset, but our strategy against Duke was so bad last time that I can’t imagine anything we try going worse than that.

[DavetheWave]

Sanchez playing chess not giving away anything in case we play them
Next week!!!
Brilliant!!

[Serum114]

I wonder how bilass will bring all the SEC game action back to dook talk? I assume he’d blow a gasket if he tried to call 5 minutes of a game dook isn’t playing in without mentioning dook.

Enjoy the dook talk sec!

[HoozGotNext]

Should we be rooting for or against Pitt?

[AdventiveQuasar]

My general rule of thumb for 3rd party rooting is to channel your inner hater and root for whatever outcome causes the most pain to the school you hate more.

[rushdacote]

ACCT Seed Watch

Overall

We can only end up 9th through 12th. These are the odds of each.

If we get the 9, we’re going to play GT or Stanford in round 2 as you’ll see below. If we get the 10, we are almost certainly getting Cal in round 1.

If we win (45%), VT loses (94%), Stanford wins or GT loses (62% at least one happens) = 26%

If we win (45%), VT loses (94%), Stanford loses (88%) AND GT wins (30%) = 11%

Stanford falls to the 8/9 game versus us.

If we lose (55%)

We could end up alone in 10th; in a five-way tie for 9th to 13th with VT, FSU, ND, and Pitt; or in many combinations in between.

With all relevant favorites winning, we end up in a 4 way tie with those teams except FSU. We get the 10 seed. The bracket would be:

We have the last regular season game of the ACC season, so we will know as soon as VT/Clem and BC/Pitt end (about the same time as we tip), what our final seeding scenarios are.

In case of two-team ties:

Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Notre Dame

UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
Pitt
Florida State

TBD Tiebreak
Virginia Tech (we own it unless they beat Clemson; then they own it)