What to expect from Friday’s exhibition?
On Friday, two formerly elite programs that have fallen on hard times face off when Villanova visits Charlottesville for a preseason exhibition. This Villanova squad is in a very similar position to Virginia’s: a new coach bringing in an almost entirely new team with eight transfers and three freshmen. Expectations are low for Villanova’s Kevin Willard: their transfer class is largely considered trash and Villanova was picked to finish 7th in the Big East. But they’re coming off a surprising domination of VCU in their first exhibition of the season.
Villanova is expected to play a guard-heavy rotation with an emphasis on three point shooting, but that’s not what materialized in an early contest against VCU. Villanova beat VCU 70-51 in a game they led all the way. Surprisingly, Villanova scored more than half of their points in the paint. While Coach Willard claims he’ll play 10 or 11 deep, he only played 8 against VCU and his starters averaged 30 minutes each. His star is Top 40 freshman Acaden Lewis, a left-handed do-everything lead guard.
Willard’s starting five includes the aforementioned Acaden Lewis, who shot 7 for 12 from the floor and scored 15 points in a collegiate debut that has Villanova fans drooling. Against VCU, the rest of the starters had very balanced production: 6’4” guard Tyler Perkins scored 14, 6’3” guard Bryce Lindsay scored 12, 6’10” center Duke Brennan chipped in 10, and 6’8” Belgian forward Matt Hodge scored 8. Villanova got another 8 points from their bench.
Villanova shot just 6 for 21, or 28%, from deep as a team against VCU. Matt Hodge and Bryce Lindsay attempted 12 deep balls and made just 3, dragging down the team average. Lindsay shot 40% from deep last season and redshirt freshman Hodge clearly has the green light to shoot, so expect them to continue bombing away. They’re a better shooting team than they showed against VCU. If deep balls start to drop for Villanova and they can get to the basket the way they did against VCU, it’s going to be a long night for Virginia.
Both teams have one exhibition under their belts before they face off. Virginia lost to Vanderbilt, 95-87 in a funky 48 minute contest. Virginia’s lackluster performance against Vanderbilt, particularly their poor defense, is concerning, but they demonstrated that they should be able to score on Villanova. Virginia has the length and strength advantage and their spacing on offense already looks elite even if the shooting isn’t there yet.
Seven Areas Watch on Friday
In their last tune-up before the season kicks off on November 3rd, Virginia will look to fix some of the more glaring issues that Vanderbilt exposed. Both the offense and defense showed signs of immaturity at times against Vanderbilt, which is to be expected for a group that just met each other. Coach Odom will still be experimenting with lineups, but there isn’t much time left before the games count. Some of these questions will be on fans’ minds as they watch Virginia’s home exhibition:
Does Virginia’s Pressure Defense Show Up? Odom’s defense gave up 95 points to Vanderbilt and showed little of the harassing pressure defense that fans expected. Against VCU, Villanova scored 36 points in the paint, 18 points off turnovers, and 14 points on fast breaks. A similar performance against Virginia would mean a blowout victory. Virginia needs to show they can bother ballhandlers and shooters.
Who Owns the Paint? Villanova scored 36 points in the paint against VCU; Virginia’s three big men scored 40 points against Vanderbilt (although not all in the paint, as even big man Ugo Onyenso made a three). On paper, the front court matchup favors Virginia, but if Villanova’s guards can get to the basket, Virginia will be in real trouble. Virginia needs to show they can dominate in the paint.
Can Virginia’s Offense Show Some Cohesiveness? Against Vanderbilt, Virginia’s offense often looked like they were just chucking up threes. Can they work together to create some open looks?
Can Virginia Limit Transition Points? Virginia struggled with Vanderbilt’s transition offense. Both Vanderbilt’s speed and efficiency caught Virginia by surprise. Villanova scored 14 points on fast breaks against VCU; they want to attack Virginia in transition just like Vanderbilt did.
Can Virginia Stop Acaden Lewis? Dallin Hall can’t match up defensively with the lean 6’3” Acaden Lewis, so Coach Odom should give someone else the defensive assignment against Villanova’s star freshman. A more athletic, quicker defender like Thomas or White could be the recipe against Lewis. Hall needs a bounceback performance after his poor showing against Vanderbilt, but Lewis is a terrible matchup for Hall on both ends of the floor. Hall doesn’t handle pressure well, and Lewis is going to make him dance.
Can Lewis, Tillis, and Hall Redeem Themselves? It’s only been one exhibition, but Lewis and Tillis, expected to be major contributors off the bench, and Hall, the expected starting point guard, really struggled in their first outing. While De Ridder, Thomas, and Grünloh showed they belong in the starting lineup, and Mallory and Onyenso demonstrated their value as key contributors off the bench, Hall, Lewis, and Tillis looked unimpressive. Can they show more against Villanova? Or is Virginia’s depth a mirage?
Who Wins the Battle of Belgium? Both teams feature a tough, physical 6’8” Belgian forward/wing: Virginia’s Thijs De Ridder versus Villanova’s Matthew Hodge. Both are new to college basketball; after his waiver was denied, Hodge was forced to redshirt last season. Hodge scored 10 points in his debut against VCU and he pairs well with the creative Acaden Lewis, but De Ridder is clearly far more talented.