šŸ«§ Bubble Watch

Would love to play Miami on Thursday. They have no bench whatsoever and would be playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Weā€™d boat race them.

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Option C) BC, lol.

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Clemson. Weā€™re 14-1 against them over the past decade. Brownell is flummoxed by Bennett. (And a Q1 win ā€” or loss ā€” is better than Q2 or Q3.)

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They now have UVa odds at +172, so at least some positive movement

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Itā€™s probably the second most important single metric behind NET

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I thought we all agreed that CER was the second most important metricā€¦ amIright @DavetheWave?

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ACC tourney odds, UVA +1300, Clemson +950 (and they have to play an extra game). Though vegas may view us has having no shot against Duke after last time so that could be baked in as well.

Probably because me and others here dropped a few bucks each on it. The LRA effect haha

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Potentially dumb question but letā€™s assume we get inā€¦is location for a seed as high as ours will be just completely random? Like we have a 25% of getting placed in any region?

I donā€™t know how to word this but what Iā€™m getting at is I just really want them to be in Charlotte so I can go watch. Thatā€™s all

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Yeah I think we have a 12.5% of getting any pod location.

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I am not sure what I will do with Indiana State. They may be my last team but may not either way I doubt when all is said and done they have an at large bid.

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Iowa going down.

Yeah their loss makes me feel better, that was a golden opportunity for them

The two sites I always hate to see as a UVa fan ā€” Charlotte and Orlando. We just always shit the bed in those two places (2015, 2017, 2018, 2023).

Michigan State should be on the bubble (10-10 / 18-13), but probably wonā€™t be since theyā€™re in the Big10. They have a good win against Baylor, but other than that, pretty mediocre resume. Itā€™ll get real interesting if they lose to Ohio State in conference tournament.

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Interesting here:

https://x.com/jonathanzakuta1/status/1766925951923867969?s=42&t=goUBOitnHj-ynzGz7EpPWg

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The schools that had big chances this weekend to pick up elite Q1 wins all lost. Great news for UVA. If you are one of the last 4/5 teams in heading into conference tournament week you can never feel you are a true lock. Just because you never know if there could be chaos and bracket busters. So no UVA isnt a lock. But I do think they will be in the committees field heading into the conference tournament, and history shows unless you are the last team or two in the field you are usually in good shape barring chaos. Of course who knows what the committees bracket is vs mine or the bracketmatrix etc. For UVA win Thursday and there should be now worries. Lose and we will sweat a bit.

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The odds to make tourney bets are gone now, not sure if/when they will come back

Seems like thereā€™s a pretty high number of teams that have big differences between their quality and resume metrics this season. I think that will make for some insight into the committeeā€™s thinking.

last year performance metrics (KPI/SOR) were much more informative then the predictive metrics (KenPom/BPI). Makes sense the committees job is to evaluate you on what you did with what you could control not what you COULD do.

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