🫧 Bubble Watch

[wahoobelinda]

And I am so glad I could spread optimism and joy regarding our bubble status.

[zh00s]

Bubble life sucks. I think it’s true for 80% of bubble teams. But there’s always 1-2 late surgers who look decent come mid March. More fun for those guys, I guess.

[CWAhoo19]

I understand that bracketologists are not the selection committee, but most brackets have us as the 3rd to 5th from last team in. Beating GT and losing in the ACCT quarterfinals should not move the needle on us at all IMO. That means 3-5 other bubble teams and/or bid stealers would have to win enough to jump us, not to mention Richmond and South Florida could be “bid savers” by bowing out of their conference tourneys. I think we are more likely than not to get in, which was reflected in the FanDuel odds before Saturday. I don’t understand how a blowout loss at Duke is notable enough to change that.

[dave92]

I guess the blowout loss to Duke made bettors believe it is not that likely that we’ll emerge from our next two games unscathed.

[haney]

Yeah. Bettors think we will lose to GT and/or have a high likelihood of getting blown out again. Not a crazy bet!

[WFS_HOO]

@haney

I guess the question for @Raleigh_Hoo is what would a GT win plus non blowout loss mean. My read is no comfort, but very likely in (whatever “very likely” means.

We will have the quad record of a tourney team (IMO), the quality (KPI/SOR) metrics of a clear tourney team, but the efficiency metrics (Kenpom/BPI) of an NIT team. I think that means “in” but let’s beat GT first…

I’m just eyeballing it based on the odds quoted above and I don’t feel like doing actual math. This is oversimplified, but if we have an 80% chance of beating GT (about the average of what BT/KP say), and the odds imply ~40% chance of making tourney as of now, the algebra points to us being a toss up post GT win. The reality is probably a little better than that since both legs should embed the sportsbook’s hold. But a GT win isn’t going to make me feel 90% confident of making it.

@haney

Bettors think we will lose to GT and/or have a high likelihood of getting blown out again.

No, I don’t think that conclusion necessarily follows. The odds you see embed the distinct probabilities of a lot of independent events, and also embed a hold for the book. Fanduel has pretty sophisticated models that will forecast our GT game, our ACCT run, and everybody else’s games. And then they’ll skew the odds to try to make sure they hold.

[zh00s]

Crazy? You wanna see CRAZY?!?

[puts $5 on Virginia to make the tourney]

[Mr.E.Recruit]

I think we’re in with a win over GT. Scratching my head at those odds.

[haney]

Fair enough. I’m out of my league in math and knowledge of how the books operate. Will stick to my specialty of evaluating lineups.

[rushdacote]

Bad news for the in-with-a-win-at-GT argument:

We’re like 80% to beat GT, but Fanduel gives us under a 40% chance to make the tournament.

[haney]

Discussed in the several posts immediately above

[hoosincebirth14]

Yea I mean we can’t just beat GT and take next week off. If we don’t win the first game it absolutely can’t be a blowout - my guess is we’re probably 50/50 beating Gt and just not getting blown out in rd 1.

[DavetheWave]

Georgia Tech beat Clemson and Miami on the road and played tough at ND and at Duke and at NC state… a lot tougher than we did. That’s likely what people are looking at when not assuming we can beat Georgia Tech

[norfolk_hoo]

Dave did you know that that same GT also lost at home to a UVA team that struggles on the road?

[zh00s]

Trendwise GT has struggled recently, playing closer to 200th best team over the last 4-6 weeks.

So we got that going for us, which is nice.

[Foresthoo]

Seton Hall and Nova play this week. Winner probably in loser out. That helps us

Wake has GT and Clemson. Going 1/2 would be tight. Probably need to win both.

St John’s has Georgetown and DePaul. Sets us nice for them

NM has Fresno and Utah St. probably need both

TCU has WVU and UCF. Split is prob ok

Utah has Oregon St and Oregon. Prob need both

That is our bubble competition at the moment.

[wahoobelinda]

NM has Fresno at the Pit, so almost guaranteed win. But they go to Utah State, which will be a problem.

[CWAhoo19]

Tonight’s Bracket Matrix update still has the Hoos as the last team avoiding Dayton, and included in 82 of the 94 brackets that involve Saturday’s results

[DavetheWave]

@norfolk_hoo

Dave did you know that that same GT also lost at home to a UVA team that struggles on the road?

Yep that game Virginia hit 11 threes with McKneely hitting six by himself and five different guys for Virginia hit a three and the starters by themselves combined for 64 points.
Is that replicatable?

[Jerome]

I don’t think it’s needed to beat them at home. You’re doing your best to overhype our opponent like you’re known to do but GT is awful. If we can’t beat them then we don’t deserve the NIT