đŸ«§ Bubble Watch

Men's Basketball
161

Yeah, that’s where it was nice, I guess, to have the four teams below us lose, means we shouldn’t fall too far.

1 Like
162

Last non Dayton 11 would be great. Best path to the sweet 16. Less likely to have to play a mid major. Power 6 teams don’t practice 1-3-1s.

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163

Just want us to beat GT. Let’s do that.

Then one more.

Speaking of, any of you jabronis get your ACCT quarterfinal tickets? Thursday night games (2/3 seed) not bad price wise. Scoop em!

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164

I’ve paid way too much attention to all the bracketology stuff this year for obvious reasons. It’s kind of interesting
and a lot of it is over my head. The metrics etc. But it seems like they each have their own methods they swear by, importance of various qualifications. It ends up with some of them being very fringe in their models. I think our guy @Raleigh_Hoo does it in a really balanced way.

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165

Yeesh is this real or Jon just trolling. I can’t confirm UVAs odds but the same as Pitt?!

https://x.com/jonrothstein/status/1764737860865818793?s=46&t=uWWx_Dkz2XN_W22Ad1tnww

166

It’s real. Just checked FanDuel.

People are just trend-casting based on how we’ve looked.

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167

Implies ~60% chance of not making it, which embeds a ~20% chance of losing to GT. Makes sense to me.

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168

Yea it sucks, but I think that’s fairly accurate. It’s very possible that you see an ugly GT win and a collapse in the ACC tourney. Which could kill anything going on.

This is a team that has lost 4 of the last 6 Not exactly inspiring.

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169

Key question - assume we beat GT, and don’t lose a blowout in the ACC-T to a team other than Duke/UNC. Are we at like 90% confidence? That’s my read, roughly


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170

It seems like we would be, unless there are a lot of bid stealing situations this season. The other teams near us on the bubble keep losing too

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171

Not sure if we took a quick bet against us on the market but now sitting at

UVA: Yes (+152) | No (-205)
(betting in MD on FD)

This team by no means gives you confidence in placing money on them, but those odds seem a bit off from reality (maybe?)

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172

Yeah I guess our odds make sense, maybe I was more surprised by Pitt’s being that good. They do get a pretty good finish with home games vs FSU and NC state, but if they lose either, they’d be out. And if they win both, they would also likely need a ACC tourney run and for us to falter.

173

If I were a betting man - I would jump on those +odds in a heartbeat. I really think if we beat GT we are at least in the first four. As of now all of our losses are Q1/Q2. If we beat GT, we’d likely face a Q1 game in the quarters (Wake or Clemson) so no potential for a bad loss there. I just can’t see a 22-win ACC team with no “bad losses” according to the NET quadrants getting left out completely


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174

So our odds are in the neighborhood of 35%
 where have I heard that before


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175

Assuming I understand your premise, I’d be way lower. I think with a win over GT we’re something like a toss up to make it. Right on the line. There’s so much negative narrative out there on how we have looked, I could easily see us getting left out just because who’s going to stand up and fight for us? We may need to win a game and at least be competitive in the ACCT semis to feel hopeful.

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176

The latest from @Raleigh_Hoo

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177

Given where we’re at in most bracket projections, I feel like we are in with a double-digit win vs. GT and a non-blowout loss in the ACCT, so these odds surprise me. Colorado at -260 is wilddddd.

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178

We had so many opportunities to make this a non-issue that it is really frustrating and disappointing as a fan. Honestly – assuming a win over GT, which is definitely not a given all things considered – I wouldn’t be surprised either way. It just sucks, frankly.

1 Like
179

That’s my premise. Here’s @Raleigh_Hoo’s take:

A win [against GT] would put UVA as the 3 seed in the ACC tournament and that means their first game will be against the 6/11/14 survivor. The most likely teams to be the 6 seed right now are Clemson/WF/Syracuse/Pitt. A 1st round game against any of those teams would be tough, but a quality game. Meaning no opportunity for a bad loss, which is good. A win would likely clinch a bid, a blowout loss would increase anxiety levels.

I guess the question for @Raleigh_Hoo is what would a GT win plus non blowout loss mean. My read is no comfort, but very likely in (whatever “very likely” means.

We will have the quad record of a tourney team (IMO), the quality (KPI/SOR) metrics of a clear tourney team, but the efficiency metrics (Kenpom/BPI) of an NIT team. I think that means “in” but let’s beat GT first


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180

I feel for Jordan Minor if UVA doesn’t get in but Merrimack does.

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