Iâm sitting here thinking, âWould a really demoralizing GT loss make them come out sluggish and disengaged against us?â You gotta consider all the factors!
2 Likes
Hoos have (just barely) fallen out of the last 4 byes on Bracket Matrix, now behind Villanova. Included in 110 of 125 brackets (all updated since Sunday)
1 Like
I took the last four byes on Bracket Matrix through the first four out* (minus Wake who is near dead after the GT loss), and put all their games together for the rest of the regular season with the kenpom line listed:
W 3/6
6:30 PM Nova (last bye) -1 @ Seton Hall (3rd last in)
7 PM Northwestern +7 @ Michigan St (3rd last bye)
8 PM FAU (2nd last bye) @ UNT +1
10:30 PM Fresno St +18 @ New Mexico (2nd last in)
R 3/7
9 PM Colorado (2nd out) @ Oregon +1
11 PM Utah (1st out) @ Oregon St +6
Sa 3/9
Noon Memphis +7 @ FAU (2nd last bye)
Noon Georgetown +18 @ St. Johnâs (last in)
2:30 PM Creighton +1 @ Nova (last bye)
5 PM Colorado (2nd out) @ Oregon St +8
7 PM Utah (1st out) @ Oregon -1
8 PM GT @ UVA (4th last in)
8 PM Providence (3rd out) @ UCONN -19
8:30 PM New Mexico (2nd last in) @ Utah St -2
8:30 PM Depaul +20 @ Seton Hall (3rd last in)
Su 3/10
11 AM Nebraska (4th last bye) @ Michigan +6
3:30 PM Michigan St (3rd last bye) @ Indiana +5
*My one complaint with Bracket Matrix is that it uses # of brackets youâre in to decide whether youâre in the field or not but then orders by average seed in brackets youâre in. That leads to the stupidity of St. Johnâs 79/125 brackets appearing as 3rd to last in while Seton Hall in 104/125 brackets is last in. I corrected this error.
4 Likes
Beware the bid stealers! Doesnât take many to really f up projections.
I only use the latest bracket entries in bracket matrix to get a true understanding and you have to wait until evening usually before that is updated. Although I think he does it sooner as we get closer to Selection Sunday.
My first sorter is # of brackets in and then use the average seed to give me what the BM is truly saying.
NET updated. UVA up 1 to 49.
ND NET at 130 so still not a bad loss, although we have to hope they dont get blown out by VT Saturday.
GT NET up to 124 so that Q3 win solidifies a bit.
Florida NET up to 26. If they get to 25 that gives us 2 Q1a wins.
WF NET falls 10 to 41.
St Johns NET up 4 to 34.
4 Likes
Bubble watch in GIF form
2 Likes
Would think that bid stealers could come fromâŠ
WCC (if Gonzaga or St Maryâs falters)
PAC-12 (If Zona or WSU falters)
ACC (if Duke, UNC, Clemson, or UVA falters)
Mountain West (if UNLV or Colorado State wins is only likely scenario - unless something crazy happens)
Bracket matrix has FAU in as an at large and South Florida as the AQ. Same with Dayton and Richmond as the AQ. So sorta bakes those two in.
And something crazy could always happen in the Big 10, SEC, Big East or Big 12 but unlikely.
So less likely than years past.
1 Like
@Raleigh_Hoo what about Sun Belt as spoilers? JMU is borderline bubble but most projections assume only App State because they finished first in conference.
Any scenario where App State wins tourney but JMU makes it? Or vice versa? I assume not. JMU likely have to win out but not sure.
Unless the committee has gone Strength of Record maximalist (I wish), JMU (and Princeton for that matter) donât seem like bubble teams.
But Iâd love to be surprised, one of the benefits of the resume algorithm approach (in my opinion) is that mid-majors who have strung together a lot of wins but with few Q1 opportunities get a fair shake relative to middling power conference teams that have an abundance of Q1 opportunities.
1 Like
Honestly, Iâm just rooting for whatever small achievements we can get at this point.
- beat GT and finish 3rd in the league? Hey thatâs something.
- win a game in the ACCT and make the semis? Hey thatâs something
- make the NCAAT? Phew
- win a game in the NCAAT? Best season since Ty Jerome left.
- win 2 games? ha, yeah right.
11 Likes
Villanovaâs resume is wild. Some good wins, but some really bad losses. That Villanova-Seton Hall game might knock one of them out.
1 Like
But for self interest this year, Iâd be in favor of teams like Princeton and JMU getting in this year, even if they lose in conference tourneys.
2 Likes
Most likley no. JMU has had a great season, but only 1-2 vs Q1/Q2 meaning 27 of their 30 games were against Q3/Q4. NET of 53 is not good enough for a team in their position. Also NET Non-conference SOS is 332 which is bad.
Now the committee has done strange things in the past, so if they won out and lost a very close game in the final to App State, they would be one of those dark horse no one understands why the committee could put in, but they would likely not be in any mock brackets on Selection Sunday.
3 Likes
If we get in the tourney this year and win a non-Dayton game, Iâll be one of those folks typing âyet another masterful coaching job by Tony!â I wonât mean it necessarily, but I will type it.
7 Likes
WCC format gives Zaga and St Maryâs byes to SF and theyâre clearly the best two teams. Bid thief there looks unlikely.
The two mid majors with one at large each but a separately listed autobid who leads the conference standings are probably good for opening up one extra bubble spot (1 of the 2 at large teams will win the tourney and take the autobid).
3 Likes
Iâm not sure if itâs been discussed but how do we feel about First Four vs entering first round.
I wouldnât mind Dayton; one extra winnable game, and it seems like either neutral or advantageous to have already played an NCAA game entering the true first round against a team that still hasnât gotten over its tourney jitters.
I also wouldnât mind entering true first round so we are guaranteed a crack at ending the first round curse.
Iâm ambivalent.
2 Likes
Entering first round. Because thereâs a non-zero chance I forget the play-in is happening like I do most years.
2 Likes
So these are potential extra bids opening up if FAU and Dayton win their conference tournaments?
1 Like
Yes, one in each case.
1 Like