Ok actually sounds like my original assertion is correct. Richmond or South Florida not getting the auto-bid opens up two at larges. But at worst, weāve already baked those two in (so bid thief maybe? But more like parking your KIA in downtown Baltimore overnight). I would still bet that Dayton wins their Tourney. Less confident in FAU.
And to add realistically I donāt see UNC/Duke not winning the tourney. Or Zaga/St Maryās losing theirs.
So really only two somewhat plausible bid thieves. And of those itās probably PAC-12 that gives me pause just because of numbers. MWC is a joke of mediocrity and could always spit out CSU or UNLV though.
And to answer @rushdacote question since Iāve taken over this thread with my unresearched ramblingā¦
I would hate playing in Dayton. Basically national spotlight for us to get either blown out or win/lose narrowly in an ugly game of basketball and perpetuate the (correct) narrative about Virginia bball. Would still rather make the tourney than not but already anticipating the texts from my non-UVA friends and the national convo.
Do we really think winning an NCAAT game would make this the best season since 2019? I understand the collective emphasis that the sport puts on the tournament, but I canāt look at this team/season and say itās better than 20-21 or 22-23 (or maybe even 19-20), even with a tournament win
I see no need to form a consensus on this issue given we have work to do to make the tourney, let alone win a game. In the end, each person can make their own assessment of this season relative to others.
But my take would be: given the collective mood on this forum about the state and trend of the program, it would be hard to look back on a season where a) we finish #3 in the ACC behind only the strongest programs and b) achieve something we havenāt done in 5 years by winning a tournament game as anything other than a mild success. Would it be the ābest season since 19?ā I donāt care. From here, though, it would feel pretty damn good.
Think we could be a lock if games go our way rest of the week. Wake loses again, Utah loses at Oregon, Colorado loses at Oregon, Iowa loses to Illinois, Providence loses to UConn, Seton Hall loses to Nova. We couldāve easily punched our ticket by now but everyone has been losing too
Agreed! I will be happy just making the tournament at this point, and would be ecstatic if we win a game from there. (Just trying to generate discussion, as I hate to see opinions on an entire season boil down to 40 minutes in a wildly unpredictable tournament, whether it breaks/continues a narrative for us, and even when applied to other programs.)
Yeah, I think there are many here that indicated at the beginning of the season that theyād consider it a success if we won a tourney game. Myself included. I think I may have said ādonāt get embarrassed in the tourneyā so would even take a respectable loss to a better seed.
Hoping maybe this year is where we flip the scriptā¦get embarrassed throughout the year and be respectable in the tourney.
I donāt know think it changes my feelings on trajectory of the program though. But can maybe better appreciate the outcome of this season and re-align future expectations.
As of this morning, my metrics of success for the team are:
Make the NCAA Tournament
Avoid getting blown out
If they do those two things, Iāll be happy. Does that make this season successful? I donāt know, maybe. Is this all subject to change? Yes, of course.
Iāve long been a believer that making a tourney makes the season a success. TB spoiled us in that 6/7 year span, but I still think it holds. Make the tourney - successful season.
You have remember that things can turn on a dime. It has already happened multiple times this year. I was feeling pretty good early even with the Wis and Mem losses until the ND game hit me hard. I thought the Clemson game was a big turning point in a positive way but I still havenāt recovered from the VT game. It doesnāt look fixable at this point maybe we put together a couple good performances where we play good defense and IMac/Groves hit some 3ās. Who knows.
Iām not expecting great turnout in DC for us. If we make the champ game yes, but donāt think itāll be anything special for the quarterfinal game. Our student section doesnāt even fill up for home games anymore. A lot of younger fans up in the DC area and I just donāt think they care about the team this year. Most fans sub 35ish years old expect that we should be top 15 and think itās a bad year if we arenāt (not the ones on this board, the more casual fans). I can think of at least 10 UVA (fair weather) fans in the DC area who are not going but would be going if we were nationally ranked
