Hard to say. I am not sure it would result in moving up x spots immediately, but it is good to not have a bad loss if you are in a situation where you are being compared directly to other teams. As in you remove the strike against you. And now you just have the typical mediocre major conference resume, but at least you dont have anything bad on it.
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We canāt lose to BC. If we do, weād have to beat Duke.
It is a good question. They are human and I dont think they are going to parse through all the resumes and say āWell this shouldnt count the same as other Q3 losses because that team is close to the top 135ā. In theory someone should be assigned to that conference and should be able to say well their Q3 loss isnt as bad as so and sos Q3 loss, but I have my doubts that happens to a large degree.
The average NET W and average NET L will account for this to some degree and is on the team sheets and is looked at.
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Losing to BC and Duke and beating GT, would most likely put us in a spot where we had to pick up at least 1 quality win (NET top 100) at the ACC tournament if not 2.
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We win out. No clue what happens ACCt. thats my prediction
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Canāt remember which topic it was under, but didnāt HGN make a comment a week or so ago that the conference tournaments are becoming much less of a factor? Like very minimal unless a bubble buster wins, who wasnāt supposed to get in?
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@Raleigh_Hoo does a great job with explaining this in the article, using recent examples.
Yeah from what Iāve seen though is 2 things: tournament results donāt matter as much as people think (outside the AQ) and losing bad games (Q3/4) has a bigger negative impact than winning good games (mainly Q1) has a positive impact.
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Losing to BC also likely means we miss a double bye at the ACCT. canāt lose tomorrow night
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But will there be a court storm at JPJ?
@Raleigh_Hoo what are your thoughts on where UVA could stand at the start of next week? Unlikely to happen where each game is won but feels like a lot of teams below us have a chance to really improve their resumes this week and make us sweat a bit more (if we donāt win both BC and @ Duke)
Pitt @ Clemson, @ BC
NC State @ FSU, @ UNC
Gonzaga @ SF, @ StMās
Nevada @ CSU, vs Fresno
Seton Hall @ Creighton, @ UConn
Providence @ Marquette, vs Nova
Texas A&M vs SC, @ Georgia
Ole Miss vs Bama, @ Missouri
Cincy @ Houston, vs Kansas State
@BC to determine our fate. Having flashbacks of Jontel dribbling out of bounds under similar circumstancesā¦
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If it didnt happen against Kent State in OT couple years ago I dong think it ever happens again!
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Good list. Also, for tonight root for Co St over NV and TT over Texas and KY to blow out Miss St. And as said above root against Seton Hall, Prov, Ole Miss, Nebraska and the Zags the rest of the way
I really canāt stand doing the watch other teams thing. No disrespect to others who can handle it.
Basically for me, if our offense stays the same then nothing really matters. We need a meaningful turnaround, so thatās what Iāll be watching. If we donāt see it, the rest aināt a thing
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Yeah as @GulfCoastHoo said it seems to impact more if you lose a game you shouldnāt instead of winning say one game against a quality team. But again it also seems to vary year to year by committee composition.
In 2022, Texas A&M entered the SEC tournament probably in the next four out or next next four out, but they picked up a Q2 win and 2 Q1 wins before losing in the final to Tennessee.
This was their resume compared to the final at-large team in that year Notre Dame:
Notre Dame NET=53, Texas A&M NET=43
Q1 ND 2-8, A&M 4-10
Q2 ND 2-1, A&M 5-0
Q1/Q2: ND 4-9, A&M 9-10
Bad Losses: ND 1 Q3, A&M 2 Q3
Q1/Q2/Q3: ND 15-10, A&M 14-12
AVG NET W: ND 157, A&M 153
AVG NET L: ND 48, A&M 38
Performance Metrics AVG (KPI/SOR): ND 51, A&M 45
Predictive Metrics AVG (SAG/BPI/KenPom) ND 51.7, A&M 46
SOS: ND 69, A&M 40
NC SOS: ND 26 A&M 262
A&M won every comparison just about except Q1/Q2/Q3 record, and NC SOS. So either they placed way too much importance that year on NC SOS and Q1/Q2/Q3 record, or they just decided they didnt want to go back on a Saturday night/Sunday morning and redo the bracket. ND even lost that year in the 1st round of the ACC tournament to Va Tech. Not a bad loss, but certainly didnt leave the best impression in their last appearance.
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Hard to know of course until we see how those games play out. Obviously sweep both we are in great shape or even if we just beat Duke and lose to BC we are in pretty good shape.
If we beat BC and lose competitively to Duke. I think we will be 3-5 teams in come Monday. But if all those teams take care of business the bubble will change. Most likely one or two from that list significantly improve their spots, but those are certainly teams to pull against.
Also keep in mind my bracket and most have South Florida and Richmond as the AQs from the AAC and A-10. If FAU or Dayton win their conference tournaments than those spots open up for at large teams.
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At the end of the day you are right. Always more fun for me to do brackets when UVA is safely in.
But for me bracketology is like fantasy football/baseball. It keeps me interested in the sport even if my team isnt doing well.
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Washington Postās Patrick Stevens posted an update bracket this morning. He has Virginia as the 10-seed in the East Region playing Northwestern.
His very brief write-up about the Hoos is āVirginia is teetering closer to play-in territory after scoring 85 total points in losses last week to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Even if the Cavaliers get in, failing to get to 50 is not a winning strategy in March (or any other time, given Virginiaās 1-4 record when it scores in the 40s).ā
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bracketology/
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