I think weâre making the tourney because I love the team and am an optimist about the next game. But I donât think there is value in this line.
But thatâs my philosophy on betting markets in general. Unless youâve got a better model than them, you canât beat them. I say this as someone who had nice sports betting winnings last year, but it all came from exploiting sports book bonuses. I know I canât spot value in lines like a sharp.
That doesnât make a lot of sense. A loss to Clemson wouldnât be a bad loss and thus shouldnât really change our outlook that much. A loss to BC/Miami is another matter. Couple that with the strong indications that the committee has put less stock into conference tourneys, im a bit perplexed by this.
Bottom line, unless there are a lot of bid stealers, I feel pretty good no matter the outcome Thursday night.
Except we are in 90% of brackets on bracket matrix lol. The only thing you could be alluding to is if they had inside knowledge from someone on the committee and Iâm pretty sure thatâs illegal.
Do they count the play in as making the tournament? I guess theoretically if Vegas thought we had no chance in a play in game, those odds could be legit but Iâm guesssing thatâs not the case.
Weâre right on the knifeâs edge. We lose to Clemson. Drake wins today and takes a bid, and Villanova, Iowa, and A&M add another quad 1 win. I bet weâre out. (Thatâs kind of a worst case scenario, but plausible.)
No chance A&M passes us without making the SEC final.
And youâd put -192 bet on all of this happening?
Fwiw I think itâs reasonable to assume thereâs enough noise that the odds are lower than we would expect (eg not 90%). But +205 seems far lower than that. Especially with Nova at -120 or whatever. I canât justify one being so much stronger than the other.
We are in. Do you really think theyâll only take 3 ACC teams. They wonât take Pitt or WF over us.
Weâre in 90% of brackets now. Those measure current state. The bet is for the state of affairs on Selection Sunday.
The team that is about to be first out if Drake wins is in about 75% of brackets now.
Assuming Indiana State still makes itâŠ
Itâs possible. Clemson got hosed in a not to different scenario last year.
Canât compare. Clemson had 2 or 3 terrible terrible losses.
Exactly, as I mentioned earlier in the thread. One P5 win, Rice. Lost to Bama (bad) and Mich St.
Disagree. Pitt or Wake guaranteed a quality win since they (most likely) play each other. An upset of UNC makes things interesting (Pitt has done that once already). Magnified if we lose to Clemson (esp. depending on how we lose).
Now if youâre the committee do you want to put Virginia (a team that has failed to score 50 points in a ton of games and has 5 blowouts of 20 points) in a national televised game? Or a competitive Pitt or Wake?
^ not that simple but it would factor in
Iâd max out -192. Then max out +205 on Fanduel. Guaranteed profit 
Would I bet on -192 if I couldnât hedge? Sure, a small amount since that is a profitable bet. But Iâd rather bet one of you at even odds (me No, you Yes) since everyone seems to think we are a lock.
I think people doing the tourney projections get too deep into the numbers, which often turns into nit picking to find separation. And because they update so often late in the season, they tend to overreact to late season games. The committee comes in with a fresh view, and I think thereâs more of a human element involved.
Like there will surely be a debate whether Indiana State is in. But I bet to the committee, theyâll be included with little thought. UVA has to overcome that human element to an extent, eye test isnât in our favor and NET ranking wonât help the cause. But I also think there are biases in our favorâŠleaving a 13-7 ACC team with a decent enough resume without any bad losses to blame it on isnât going to go over well. Neither would shortchanging the ACC after what they did to FSU.
Man if it didnât impact us Iâd love to see Indiana State get an at large. Torvik has them as a 9 seed in the WAB bracket
I just canât see Indiana State being picked over us if Resume Quality is looked at. We are an interesting test case this year since our resume is so much better than our predictive metrics. Typically the committee values resume (mostly valuing taking care of games against shitty teams with at least one decent non conference win).
Thatâs not to say they wonât be picked. They probably will but it wouldnât be at our expense.
Neither Pitt or WF is beating UNC in the ACCT. In terms of your competitive comment, UVA always provides for an interesting first round game.
Narrative element!
Donât get blown out by Clemson, Hoos.
This is true, we need to avoid at all costs. We all felt pretty safe after the BC win but then quickly got a reality check at Duke