Iām curious what the standard of judgement is for this statement. I mean, I accept the concept of wisdom of crowds in general, but I guess my point is that I donāt care how good the bracketmatrix is if the way we are judging its quality is how accurately it projects seeds 1-16 in total. All I care about is our in/out projection. Iām sure matrix is still better, but iām curious if anybody has ever measured its accuracy looking only at bubble teams.
I gotta agree with Armandoās Barber. And we have to worry about too many bid thieves in the second scenario.
This assumes weāre playing Clemson though.
Fan duel has posted make tourney bets again, UVA +154 (improving but still seems off), nova -128 (i think down from yesterday), New Mexico +182. They iowa yesterday but they are dead now.
Frankly I think vegas tends to side with the metrics, so theyāre making a bet against UVa (good record bad metrics) and a bet for Villanova (bad record good metrics). But they seem to be missing the committee/human element and have had to adjust a little
Nevada +182??? Bet the house on that, they are a 100% lock
Haha whoops New Mexico, mixed up my western states
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And if looking at bracket matrix, Villanova and New Mexico are both last 4 out, prob need 2 wins in respective conference tourneys but have very different odds
I just think weāre a very easy team to leave out if we lose.
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I think weāre easier to leave out if another ACC team (wake, Pitt) makes a run and takes our place. But the ACC only getting 3 and then MVC getting 2 and mountain west getting 5-6 would be shocking
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This is what many people miss. There would be hell to pay from a pr perspective if the acc only got 3 (exacerbated by fsu football). If wake, Pitt or even Syracuse donāt make a run, our odds go up a lot.
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So youāre saying we have to root for Carolina?!
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Yeah they would be well in the top 100 if they beat one of the other clemson and us
I donāt think the worry is dropping 3-4 spots based on losing to Clemson. The worry is that we lose to Clemson and these games happen and result in wins for teams behind us:
Providence vs Creighton (#12 S-Curve)
Villanova vs Marquette (#8 S-Curve)
New Mexico vs Boise St (#30 S-Curve)
Providence, Villanova, and New Mexico need to win on Wednesday to set up these matchups, all of which present huge opportunities to get a quality win and maybe lock up a spot.
Colorado vs Utah/Arizona St
Plus bid thieves.
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https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaab?tab=march-madness
Have added a lot more bets. Wake at +154 (same as us), Indiana state at +194
2023: 67 of 68 right missed Rutgers Nevada got in
2022: 67 of 68 right missed Texas A&M Notre Dame got in
2021: 67 of 68 right missed Louisville Wichita State got in
2019: 67 of 68 right missed TCU Belmont got it
2018: 66 of 68 right missed USC and St. Marys, Arizona State and Syracuse got in
So the last 4 tournaments they missed 1 team. The 2019 scenario is that Indiana State scenario this year. Most braceketologists have ISU out but the committee has them in based on their own subjective choices.
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Weāre +154/-210, a massive vig for the book. True odds about +182 or 100/282 = 35.4%
Yes but the argument against that is the tendency for the committee to place less importance on big wins in conference tournaments vs a team in their field just not picking up a bad loss.
But it will make me nervous in those scenarios, but I already have NM in my field and I think it may take two good wins at this point for Providence and Nova to jump in.
thanks!
Just as a side note, compare JBRās beautiful formatting to Lunardiās ugly updates that he types in WordPerfect
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