Every year I think weâre suprised at how little the conference tournament affects the S-curve.
I bet UVa is in Dayton right now as the 3rd or 4th last team in, and the thing that will change it is bid stealers or bid givers.
2 Likes
Well if either beats Clemson, then beats usâŠI guarantee you theyâd be closer to 85/90 in the NET than >100. So we have that going for us.
2 Likes
Wow, Iâd love that. Look at those 7v10 opponents. Zags, TX and Wash St. Revenge for the ass whooping a few years ago, Kadin and Tonyâs old school
1 Like
We canât play Wisconsin, but that would be an obvious storyline too
Yâall are gonna be so bummed when we play our way into a 9-seed.
6 Likes
My storyline if this happenedâŠ
Why do we always get paired with Wisconsin?
2 Likes
Lunardi is so confusing with when he updates. This was his update on the espn page listed at 9:30am
Had UVA as 3rd team in and Indiana State as 4th team in.
But then on twitter this was posted a few minutes ago and has UVA as 4th team in and Indiana State as last team in.
He obviously gets his first guess out there to beat the crowd but then looks at the new brackets out and changes it to be closer to the consensus.
1 Like
Finally, common sense
1 Like
+140/-188 now, those LRA 
keep dropping
37.8% chance implied
Faux Lunardi
1 Like
This is @Raleigh_Hoo week.
8 Likes
Hooâs the most volatile team in the possible at-large fieldâŠ?
1 Like
Surprised he didnât have to remove us and resize to be able to see the other bars
5 Likes
Just the 51 brackets on Bracket Matrix filed today:
-----------------last four byes------
Michigan St 51/51
TCU 51/51
Seton Hall 51/51
Mississippi St 49/51 (average seed 10.67)
----------------last four in-----
UVA 49/51 (average seed 10.82)
St Johnâs 47/51
Colorado 43/51
Indiana St 33/51
------out-----
New Mexico 28/51
Villanova 13/51
Texas A&M 12/51
Pitt & Providence 2/51 (better average seed)
Wake 2/51
Ohio St 1/51
We are in 96% of brackets. 69% start us in Dayton, 27% avoid Dayton, 4% send us to the NIT. Despite overwhelmingly being sent to Dayton, we are also nipping at the heels of Mississippi State for the last bye.
Since Saturday, UVA passed St. Johnâs who had a wobbly win over terrible Georgetown.
Indiana State lost the MVC Championship to Drake. ISU replaced New Mexico as last in. (Before the game they were in every bracket as a presumed auto-bid mostly with 11 seeds.)
Pitt and Wake both dropped in the percentage of brackets despite Saturday wins. Iowa fell out of all brackets after their loss to Illinois. Ohio State is now in a bracket for the first time (at least in a while.)
4 Likes
Also have to remember these brackets assume FAU or Dayton dont win their tournaments. If they do then up 2 spots open up meaning at least from the BM perspective New Mexico and Villanova would be in.
4 Likes
True, I should also mention that the 10.67 and 10.82 average seeds I mention for Mississippi St and UVA assign a 13 seed for each bracket they donât appear in. Their average in the brackets in which they do appear are slightly better than 10.67 and 10.82.
1 Like
I want to point out how many teams around us have chances for massive Q1 wins. We really need to win our QF.
(Subtract an hour from these times because I am in Brazil. Not all the games will happen obviously because some teams will be upset and not get their chance at a big win in the next round.)
W 3/13
3:30 PM Wake vs ND/GT Q3
4 PM TCU vs Oklahoma Q1
7:30 PM Providence vs Georgetown Q3
8 PM New Mexico vs Air Force Q4
10 PM Villanova vs Depaul Q4
Th 3/14
1 PM Michigan St vs Minnesota Q2
2 PM Mississippi St vs LSU Q2
3:30 PM Wake vs Pitt Q1 v Q1
3:30 PM Seton Hall vs. St. Johnâs Q2 v Q1
4 PM TCU/Oklahoma vs Houston Q1
7:30 PM Ohio State vs. Iowa Q2
8 PM Providence vs Creighton Q1
8 PM Texas A&M vs Ole Miss Q2
10:30 PM Villanova vs Marquette Q1
10:30 PM UVA vs Q?
12:30 AM Colorado vs Utah/Arizona St Q2/Q3
12:30 AM New Mexico vs Boise St Q1
F 3/15
1 PM Michigan St vs Purdue Q1
2 PM Mississippi St vs Tennessee Q1
7:30 PM Ohio State/Iowa vs Illionois Q1
8 PM Texas A&M vs Kentucky Q1
8 PM Wake/Pitt vs UNC Q1
12:30 AM Colorado vs Washington St Q1
Boom.
3 Likes
So tonight root for Gonzaga and Saint Maryâs. If both win no possible chance for a bid stealer in the WCC.
5 Likes